Earth Observation Open Science and Innovation

geospatial analytics; social observatory; big earth data; open data; citizen science; open innovation; earth system science; crowdsourced geospatial data; citizen science; science in society; data scienc

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice

Sustainability assessment and education for sustainability in the Russian Federation on the example of Tambov region

Over the past few decades economic growth has come at the expenses of the environments and the topic of sustainable development is becoming more important. Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The main aim of this dissertation was to investigate the available methodologies of sustainability assessment and to test which of them could be suitable for Russian conditions. Russia is an interesting subject for research as, it has its own history of sustainability science, but quite often the commitment to sustainable development is only in rhetoric and there are some problems with the interpretation of the concept of sustainable development. For example, in Russian official documents the term sustainability is used as a synonym for stable economic growth. The focus of the research was a creation of an indicator system for a regional sustainability assessment on the example of Tambov region of the Russian Federation. At the first stage of the research a regional assessment was performed with the help of the United Nations set of sustainable development indicators, SWOT analysis was performed to identify the main strengths and problems in the region. Also, the availability of statistical data and relevancy for the research region of the indicators was checked. During the next stage of the research a composite indicator was created using different techniques for normalization of indicator and weighting. Then robustness and sensitivity analysis of created indicators was performed, the results were visualised, and composite indicators were decomposed to explain the drivers of the aggregated results. The result of this work has shown that composite indicators together with regional assessment on the base of sustainability indicators are the tools that could support policymakers in sustainability decision-making. There are some problems with the availability of the statistical data in Russia, and there is no monitoring mechanism at the federal district level and lack of coordination with work of statistical agencies. This research is confirming a necessity of further research, and a need to develop a monitoring and assessment system in Russian Federation. The second part of the research was devoted to education for sustainable development. UNESCO is stressing that the approach of Education for Sustainable Development empowers learners to take informed decisions and responsible actions for environmental integrity, economic viability, and a just society for present and future generations, and therefore education is playing a crucial role in reaching sustainability (UNESCO, 2017). The aim of this research was to see how the sustainability topics are integrated into the curriculum of the agricultural universities, to define the sources of integration and research possible problems and formulate the recommendations for strengthening the integration. To research the education for sustainable development in Russia first a literature review was conducted, followed by 16 semi-structured interviews with the representatives of 8 universities. The research confirmed the fact that sustainability is present as a topic in the official documents, for example educational standard, but this mention remains only rhetorical and does not provide the background for the establishment of a framework for integration of sustainability concept. As a result, the integration into education is mostly driven by the personal initiative of the teaching staff. There is a clear demand for an integration framework of sustainability topics in the federal state educational standard. The main problems are uncoordination and competition between departments and ministries, overload of teachers, lack of best-practices, absence of system in the education and limited financing. These problems could be mitigated with creation of interdepartmental centres, creation of interdisciplinary working groups, creation of a systematic concept of education for sustainability and involvement of different stakeholders into educational projects, but the success of these measures depends on the general approach and if the importance of sustainability will be present only in official documents, then there will be no shift in integration, and everything will depend only on individual initiative of teachers.In den letzten Jahrzehnten ging das Wirtschaftswachstum zu Lasten der Umwelt und das Thema der Nachhaltigkeit wird immer wichtiger. Nachhaltige Entwicklung ist eine Entwicklung, die die Bedürfnisse der Gegenwart befriedigt, ohne zu riskieren, dass künftige Generationen ihre Bedürfnisse nicht mehr befriedigen können. Das Hauptziel dieser Dissertation ist es, die verfügbaren Methoden der Nachhaltigkeitsbewertung zu erforschen und zu prüfen, welche davon für die russischen Verhältnisse geeignet sein könnten. Russland ist ein interessantes Forschungsthema. Es hat zwar eine eigene Geschichte der Nachhaltigkeitswissenschaft jedoch ist das Engagement für nachhaltige Entwicklung nur in der Rhetorik vorhanden und es gibt einige Probleme mit der Interpretation des Konzeptes der nachhaltigen Entwicklung. In offiziellen russischen Dokumenten wird der Begriff Nachhaltigkeit beispielsweise als Synonym für stabiles Wirtschaftswachstum verwendet. Im Zentrum der Forschung stand die Entwicklung eines Indikatorensystems für eine regionale Nachhaltigkeitsbewertung am Beispiel der Region Tambov der Russischen Föderation. In der ersten Phase der Forschung wurde eine regionale Bewertung mit Hilfe des Indikatorensatzes der Vereinten Nationen für nachhaltige Entwicklung durchgeführt. Darüber hinaus wurde eine SWOT-Analyse durchgeführt, um die Stärken und Probleme der Region zu identifizieren. Außerdem wurde die Verfügbarkeit von statistischen Daten und die Relevanz der Indikatoren für die Untersuchungsregion geprüft. In der nächsten Phase der Forschung wurde ein zusammengesetzter Indikator erstellt, wobei verschiedene Techniken zur Normalisierung der und zur Gewichtung verwendet wurden. Anschließend wurden Robustheits- und Sensitivitätsanalysen der erstellten Indikatoren durchgeführt, die Ergebnisse visualisiert und zusammengesetzte Indikatoren zerlegt, um die Treiber der aggregierten Ergebnisse zu erklären. Das Ergebnis dieser Arbeit zeigt, dass zusammengesetzte Indikatoren vereint mit einer regionalen Bewertung auf der Grundlage von Nachhaltigkeitsindikatoren die Instrumente sind, die politische Entscheidungsträger bei der Entscheidungsfindung im Bereich der Nachhaltigkeit unterstützen können. Es gibt einige Probleme mit der Verfügbarkeit der statistischen Daten in Russland, keinen Überwachungsmechanismus auf der Ebene der föderalen Bezirke und einen Mangel an Koordination mit der Arbeit der statistischen Ämter. Im Ergebnis bestätigt es die Notwendigkeit weiterer Forschung und das Erfordernis, ein Überwachungs- und Bewertungssystem in der Russischen Föderation zu entwickeln. Der zweite Teil der Forschung widmet sich der Bildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung. Die UNESCO betont, dass der Ansatz der Bildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung die Lernenden dazu befähigt, fundierte Entscheidungen zu treffen und verantwortungsbewusst zu handeln, um die Integrität der Umwelt, die wirtschaftliche Tragfähigkeit und eine gerechte Gesellschaft für heutige und künftige Generationen zu gewährleisten. Die Bildung spielt daher eine entscheidende Rolle bei der Verwirklichung der Nachhaltigkeit (UNESCO, 2017). Die Integration der Nachhaltigkeitsthemen in die Lehrpläne der landwirtschaftlichen Hochschulen, die Definition von Integrationsquellen, die Erforschung möglicher Probleme und die Formulierung von Empfehlungen zur Stärkung der Integration ist Ziel dieser Forschung. Zur Erforschung der Bildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung in Russland wurde zunächst eine Literaturrecherche durchgeführt, gefolgt von 16 halbstrukturierten Interviews mit Vertretern von 8 Universitäten. Die Analyse bestätigte die Tatsache, dass das Thema Nachhaltigkeit zwar in den offiziellen Dokumenten, z. B. den Bildungsstandards, enthalten ist, die Erwähnung jedoch keinen Rahmen für die Integration des Nachhaltigkeitskonzepts vorgibt und die Integration in die Bildung meist durch die Eigeninitiative der Lehrenden vorangetrieben wird. Es besteht daher ein klarer Bedarf an einem Integrationsrahmen von Nachhaltigkeitsthemen im Landesbildungsstandard. Die Hauptprobleme sind mangelnde Koordination und Konkurrenz zwischen Abteilungen und Ministerien, Überlastung der Lehrkräfte, Fehlen von Best-Practice-Beispielen, ein mangelhaftes Bildungssystem und begrenzte Finanzierung

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Person-Centered Outcome Metrology

This unique collection of chapters from world experts on person-centered outcome (PCO) measures addresses the following critical questions: Can individual experiences be represented in measurements that do not reduce unique differences to meaningless uniformity? How person-centric are PCO measures? Are PCO measurements capable of delivering the kind of quality assured quantification required for high-stakes decision making? Are PCO measures likely to support improved health care delivery? Have pivotal clinical studies failed to deliver treatments for diseases because of shortcomings in the PCO measures used? Are these shortcomings primarily matters of precision and meaningfulness? Or is the lack of common languages for communicating outcomes also debilitating to quality improvement, research, and the health care economy? Three key issues form an urgent basis for further investigation. First, the numbers generated by PCO measures are increasingly used as the central dependent variables upon which high stakes decisions are made. The rising profile of PCO measures places new demands for higher quality information from scale and test construction, evaluation, selection, and interpretation. Second, PCO measurement science has well-established lessons to be learned from those who have built and established the science over many decades. Finally, the goal in making a PCO measurement is to inform outcome management. As such, it is vitally important that key stakeholders understand that, over the last half century, developments in psychometrics have refocused measurement on illuminating clinically important individual differences in the context of widely reproduced patterns of variation in health and functioning, comparable scale values for quality improvement, and practical explanatory models. This book’s audience includes anyone interested in person-centered care, including healthcare researchers and practitioners, policy makers, pharmaceutical industry representatives, clinicians, patient advocates, and metrologists. This is an open access book

Modeling the hydrology, suspended sediments and organic carbon fluxes of the Congo River Basin: the role of the Cuvette Centrale

Le bassin du fleuve Congo (BRC) est le deuxième plus grand bassin de drainage sur Terre après l'Amazone en termes de débit et de superficie du bassin. Il contient également la deuxième plus grande zone de forêt tropicale humide (1,8 million km2) qui abrite également le plus grand gisement de tourbières des tropiques (145 500 km2). La Cuvette Centrale est le bassin quarternaire "sag" situé au centre de ce bassin qui reçoit les flux de tous les principaux affluents situés sur la rive droite, la rive gauche et le cours d'eau supérieur du fleuve Congo. Bien que certaines études en l'hydrologie, sur les sédiments et en biogéochimie de la matière organique aient été réalisées sur ce bassin, il est nécessaire de mieux contraindre les flux latéraux de la matière qui passent par la Cuvette afin d'améliorer la compréhension du rôle de la Cuvette dans la biogéochimie du bassin au pas de temps journalier. A l'aide du modèle hydrologique SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) calibré en utilisant peu de données, et validé avec des produits de télédétection et des modèles biogéochimiques et hydrologiques, nous avons établi que la Cuvette Centrale est une source d'eau pour la cours d'eau principal durant l'étiage de 2000 à 2012. De plus, une analyse de la dynamique sédimentaire sur la période 2000-2012 a révélé que la Cuvette Centrale est capable de retenir plus de 23 mégatonnes de matériaux produits annuellement au sein de la Cuvette Centrale ou provenant de sources situées en amont. Les simulations du COD et du COP ont révélé que l'hydrologie et la pente sont les principaux facteurs de contrôles de ces flux. Les résultats ont révélé qu'entre 1,2 et 1,5 mégatonnes de COD sont produites dans la Cuvette Centrale avec 0,9 mégatonnes de COP retenues dans la Cuvette. À l'exutoire du bassin, des flux de 13,4 Mt an-1 pour le COD et de 2,2 Mt an-1 de COP ont été estimé, ce qui correspond à la gamme d'estimation des précédentes études.The Congo River basin (CRB) is the second largest drainage basin on Earth after the Amazon in terms of discharge and basin area. It also contains the second largest area of rainforest (1.8 million km2) that also hosts the single largest peatland deposit found (145,500 km2) in the Tropics. The Cuvette Centrale is the quarternary "sag" basin found at the center of this basin that receives flows from all the principal tributaries located in the right bank, left bank and the upper Congo River. While a few studies of the hydrology, sediments and organic matter biogeochemistry of the CRB have been made, there is a need to better constrain the lateral fluxes of material that pass through the Cuvette in order to best understand its role in the basin biogeochemistry at a daily time step. With the aid of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model calibrated using scarce data, and validated with remote sensing products, biogeochemical and hydrological models, we have established the role of the Cuvette Centrale as a source of water to the main River during low flow periods for the 2000-2012 simulation period. Furthermore, an analysis of the sediment dynamics in the 2000-2012 period revealed that the Cuvette Centrale is capable of retaining over 23 megatons of material annually produced within the Cuvette Centrale and from upland sources. The models for DOC and POC revealed that hydrology and slope are primary controls on these fluxes. The results revealed that between 1.2 to 1.5 megatons of DOC is produced in the Cuvette Centrale with 0.9 megatons of POC retained in the Cuvette Centrale. At the basin outlet, a flux of 13.4 Mt yr-1 for DOC and 2.2 Mt yr-1 of POC was estimated, consistent with previous estimates

Beyond 100: The Next Century in Geodesy

This open access book contains 30 peer-reviewed papers based on presentations at the 27th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). The meeting was held from July 8 to 18, 2019 in Montreal, Canada, with the theme being the celebration of the centennial of the establishment of the IUGG. The centennial was also a good opportunity to look forward to the next century, as reflected in the title of this volume. The papers in this volume represent a cross-section of present activity in geodesy, and highlight the future directions in the field as we begin the second century of the IUGG. During the meeting, the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) organized one Union Symposium, 6 IAG Symposia, 7 Joint Symposia with other associations, and 20 business meetings. In addition, IAG co-sponsored 8 Union Symposia and 15 Joint Symposia. In total, 3952 participants registered, 437 of them with IAG priority. In total, there were 234 symposia and 18 Workshops with 4580 presentations, of which 469 were in IAG-associated symposia. ; This volume will publish papers based on International Association of Geodesy (IAG) -related presentations made at the International Association of Geodesy at the 27th IUGG General Assembly, Montreal, July 2019. It will include papers associated with all of the IAG and joint symposia from the meeting, which span all aspects of modern geodesy, and linkages to earth and environmental sciences. It continues the long-running IAG Symposia Series

Person-Centered Outcome Metrology

This unique collection of chapters from world experts on person-centered outcome (PCO) measures addresses the following critical questions: Can individual experiences be represented in measurements that do not reduce unique differences to meaningless uniformity? How person-centric are PCO measures? Are PCO measurements capable of delivering the kind of quality assured quantification required for high-stakes decision making? Are PCO measures likely to support improved health care delivery? Have pivotal clinical studies failed to deliver treatments for diseases because of shortcomings in the PCO measures used? Are these shortcomings primarily matters of precision and meaningfulness? Or is the lack of common languages for communicating outcomes also debilitating to quality improvement, research, and the health care economy? Three key issues form an urgent basis for further investigation. First, the numbers generated by PCO measures are increasingly used as the central dependent variables upon which high stakes decisions are made. The rising profile of PCO measures places new demands for higher quality information from scale and test construction, evaluation, selection, and interpretation. Second, PCO measurement science has well-established lessons to be learned from those who have built and established the science over many decades. Finally, the goal in making a PCO measurement is to inform outcome management. As such, it is vitally important that key stakeholders understand that, over the last half century, developments in psychometrics have refocused measurement on illuminating clinically important individual differences in the context of widely reproduced patterns of variation in health and functioning, comparable scale values for quality improvement, and practical explanatory models. This book’s audience includes anyone interested in person-centered care, including healthcare researchers and practitioners, policy makers, pharmaceutical industry representatives, clinicians, patient advocates, and metrologists. This is an open access book

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen