Emergence of Foresight Activities in Swedish Government Authorities

This paper discusses and aims to explain the emergence of foresight activities in Swedish government authorities, including environmental scanning and analysis, futures studies and other activities trying to detect and analyse change in the surroundings of the organisation. To explain the growing importance of foresight activities we must consider the increasing administrative authority given to public authorities in recent years, and the development of information technology that has given new technological opportunities to conduct foresight. Furthermore, structural (and institutional) changes - such as globalisation and the development of the EU - created a need and incentives for more foresight activities.Foresight; Futures studies; Swedish government authorities; Public authorities; Information; Information society; Globalisation; Internationalisation; Technological change; EU

Developing adaptive responses to contextual changes for sustainable agricultural management: The role of social capital in the Arborea district (Sardinia, Italy)

This article investigates the role played by social capital (in terms of bonding, bridging and linking social capital) in developing adaptive responses to contextual changes (environmental, social and economic) at the local scale. Three questions guided the research: can social capital produce resilience and collective action? Could environmental barriers be turned into opportunities? Can social capital contribute to long-term adaptation to change? Results obtained from a qualitative research conducted in the Arborea district (Sardinia, Italy) show how collective actions to adapt to contextual changes are both results and generators of robust social capital. On the one hand, social capital contributes towards increasing resilience by generating collective responses to contextual changes without compromising the structural functions of the system; on the other hand, the lack of a clear regulatory framework for facilitating the development of local collective adaptive responses, depresses foresight strategies

Futures Studies in the Interactive Society

This book consists of papers which were prepared within the framework of the research project (No. T 048539) entitled Futures Studies in the Interactive Society (project leader: Éva Hideg) and funded by the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) between 2005 and 2009. Some discuss the theoretical and methodological questions of futures studies and foresight; others present new approaches to or procedures of certain questions which are very important and topical from the perspective of forecast and foresight practice. Each study was conducted in pursuit of improvement in futures fields

Methods for anticipating governance breakdown and violent conflict

In this paper, authors Sarah Bressan, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, and Dominic Seefeldt present the evolution and state of the art of both quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight methods that can be applied to help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Europe’s neighbourhood. In the quantitative section, they describe the different phases of conflict forecasting in political science and outline which methodological gaps EU-LISTCO’s quantitative sub-national prediction tool will address to forecast tipping points for violent conflict and governance breakdown. The qualitative section explains EU-LISTCO’s scenario-based foresight methodology for identifying potential tipping points. After comparing both approaches, the authors discuss opportunities for methodological advancements across the boundaries of quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight, as well as how they can inform the design of strategic policy options

IE WP 23/04 Prospective Voluntary Agreements to Escape Carbon Lock-in

The paper looks for co-evolutionary policy responses to carbon lock-in – a persistent state that creates systemic market and policy barriers to carbon low technological alternatives. We address the coordination role for authorities rather than the corrective optimisation and analyse experiences from environmental voluntary agreements and foresight activities. The paper argues that combining the virtues of these tools into a new policy tool, named Prospective Voluntary Agreement (PVA), can help facilitate an escape from carbon lock-in and provide policy resources for addressing lock-in related issues. The merit of PVA lies with the enhancement of collaborative policy culture and inter-sectoral and interdisciplinary stakeholder learning that creates commitment to desired action for escaping lock-in.environmental voluntary agreement; foresight; increasing returns; lock-in; path-dependence

From flood science to flood policy: The Foresight Future Flooding Project, seven years on.

Purpose: The Foresight Future Flooding (FFF) project researched flood risk in the UK to the year 2100 for central government, using scenarios and a national risk assessment model backed by qualitative analysis from panels of some 45 senior scientists. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the project, both nationally and internationally. Design/methodology/approach: This paper assesses the impact of the FFF project, both nationally and internationally, using web searches, document analysis, and a questionnaire survey of key actors in the flood risk management policy field. Findings: It was found that the penetration of the project into professionals' consciousness was high in relation to other comparable projects and publications, and its impact on policy - both immediately and continuing - was profound. The FFF initiative did not create policy change, however, but facilitated its legitimation, adding impetus to what was already there, as one element of a part-catalytic and part-incremental process of policy evolution. Research limitations/implications: Special circumstances, internal and external to the project, mean that this cannot be a simple model for matching research to policymakers' needs in the future. Practical implications: Important lessons may be learnt from this project about both the methods of forward-looking foresight-type research, and the way that its results are disseminated to its target audiences. Originality/value: This is an innovative attempt to assess the impact of a new type of foresight project. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Prospective voluntary agreements to escape carbon lock-in

The paper looks for co-evolutionary policy responses to carbon lock-in - a persistent state that creates systemic market and policy barriers to carbon low technological alternatives. We address the coordination role for authorities rather than the corrective optimisation and analyse experiences from environmental voluntary agreements and foresight activities. The paper argues that combining the virtues of these tools into a new policy tool, named Prospective Voluntary Agreement (PVA), can help facilitate an escape from carbon lock-in and provide policy resources for addressing lock-in related issues.Lock-in , Carbon, Policy responses, Agreements