Entropy-based approach to missing-links prediction

Link-prediction is an active research field within network theory, aiming at uncovering missing connections or predicting the emergence of future relationships from the observed network structure. This paper represents our contribution to the stream of research concerning missing links prediction. Here, we propose an entropy-based method to predict a given percentage of missing links, by identifying them with the most probable non-observed ones. The probability coefficients are computed by solving opportunely defined null-models over the accessible network structure. Upon comparing our likelihood-based, local method with the most popular algorithms over a set of economic, financial and food networks, we find ours to perform best, as pointed out by a number of statistical indicators (e.g. the precision, the area under the ROC curve, etc.). Moreover, the entropy-based formalism adopted in the present paper allows us to straightforwardly extend the link-prediction exercise to directed networks as well, thus overcoming one of the main limitations of current algorithms. The higher accuracy achievable by employing these methods - together with their larger flexibility - makes them strong competitors of available link-prediction algorithms

Entropy-based approach to missing-links prediction

Link-prediction is an active research field within network theory, aiming at uncovering missing connections or predicting the emergence of future relationships from the observed network structure. This paper represents our contribution to the stream of research concerning missing links prediction. Here, we propose an entropy-based method to predict a given percentage of missing links, by identifying them with the most probable non-observed ones. The probability coefficients are computed by solving opportunely defined null-models over the accessible network structure. Upon comparing our likelihood-based, local method with the most popular algorithms over a set of economic, financial and food networks, we find ours to perform best, as pointed out by a number of statistical indicators (e.g. the precision, the area under the ROC curve, etc.). Moreover, the entropy-based formalism adopted in the present paper allows us to straightforwardly extend the link-prediction exercise to directed networks as well, thus overcoming one of the main limitations of current algorithms. The higher accuracy achievable by employing these methods - together with their larger flexibility - makes them strong competitors of available link-prediction algorithms

CSNE: Conditional Signed Network Embedding

Signed networks are mathematical structures that encode positive and negative relations between entities such as friend/foe or trust/distrust. Recently, several papers studied the construction of useful low-dimensional representations (embeddings) of these networks for the prediction of missing relations or signs. Existing embedding methods for sign prediction generally enforce different notions of status or balance theories in their optimization function. These theories, however, are often inaccurate or incomplete, which negatively impacts method performance. In this context, we introduce conditional signed network embedding (CSNE). Our probabilistic approach models structural information about the signs in the network separately from fine-grained detail. Structural information is represented in the form of a prior, while the embedding itself is used for capturing fine-grained information. These components are then integrated in a rigorous manner. CSNE's accuracy depends on the existence of sufficiently powerful structural priors for modelling signed networks, currently unavailable in the literature. Thus, as a second main contribution, which we find to be highly valuable in its own right, we also introduce a novel approach to construct priors based on the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle. These priors can model the \emph{polarity} of nodes (degree to which their links are positive) as well as signed \emph{triangle counts} (a measure of the degree structural balance holds to in a network). Experiments on a variety of real-world networks confirm that CSNE outperforms the state-of-the-art on the task of sign prediction. Moreover, the MaxEnt priors on their own, while less accurate than full CSNE, achieve accuracies competitive with the state-of-the-art at very limited computational cost, thus providing an excellent runtime-accuracy trade-off in resource-constrained situations

CSNE : Conditional Signed Network Embedding

Signed networks are mathematical structures that encode positive and negative relations between entities such as friend/foe or trust/distrust. Recently, several papers studied the construction of useful low-dimensional representations (embeddings) of these networks for the prediction of missing relations or signs. Existing embedding methods for sign prediction generally enforce different notions of status or balance theories in their optimization function. These theories, however, are often inaccurate or incomplete, which negatively impacts method performance. In this context, we introduce conditional signed network embedding (CSNE). Our probabilistic approach models structural information about the signs in the network separately from fine-grained detail. Structural information is represented in the form of a prior, while the embedding itself is used for capturing fine-grained information. These components are then integrated in a rigorous manner. CSNE's accuracy depends on the existence of sufficiently powerful structural priors for modelling signed networks, currently unavailable in the literature. Thus, as a second main contribution, which we find to be highly valuable in its own right, we also introduce a novel approach to construct priors based on the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle. These priors can model the polarity of nodes (degree to which their links are positive) as well as signed triangle counts (a measure of the degree structural balance holds to in a network). Experiments on a variety of real-world networks confirm that CSNE outperforms the state-of-the-art on the task of sign prediction. Moreover, the MaxEnt priors on their own, while less accurate than full CSNE, achieve accuracies competitive with the state-of-the-art at very limited computational cost, thus providing an excellent runtime-accuracy trade-off in resource-constrained situations

Improving adaptation and interpretability of a short-term traffic forecasting system

Traffic management is being more important than ever, especially in overcrowded big cities with over-pollution problems and with new unprecedented mobility changes. In this scenario, road-traffic prediction plays a key role within Intelligent Transportation Systems, allowing traffic managers to be able to anticipate and take the proper decisions. This paper aims to analyse the situation in a commercial real-time prediction system with its current problems and limitations. The analysis unveils the trade-off between simple parsimonious models and more complex models. Finally, we propose an enriched machine learning framework, Adarules, for the traffic prediction in real-time facing the problem as continuously incoming data streams with all the commonly occurring problems in such volatile scenario, namely changes in the network infrastructure and demand, new detection stations or failure ones, among others. The framework is also able to infer automatically the most relevant features to our end-task, including the relationships within the road network. Although the intention with the proposed framework is to evolve and grow with new incoming big data, however there is no limitation in starting to use it without any prior knowledge as it can starts learning the structure and parameters automatically from data. We test this predictive system in different real-work scenarios, and evaluate its performance integrating a multi-task learning paradigm for the sake of the traffic prediction task.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

The Role of Gender in Social Network Organization

The digital traces we leave behind when engaging with the modern world offer an interesting lens through which we study behavioral patterns as expression of gender. Although gender differentiation has been observed in a number of settings, the majority of studies focus on a single data stream in isolation. Here we use a dataset of high resolution data collected using mobile phones, as well as detailed questionnaires, to study gender differences in a large cohort. We consider mobility behavior and individual personality traits among a group of more than $800$ university students. We also investigate interactions among them expressed via person-to-person contacts, interactions on online social networks, and telecommunication. Thus, we are able to study the differences between male and female behavior captured through a multitude of channels for a single cohort. We find that while the two genders are similar in a number of aspects, there are robust deviations that include multiple facets of social interactions, suggesting the existence of inherent behavioral differences. Finally, we quantify how aspects of an individual's characteristics and social behavior reveals their gender by posing it as a classification problem. We ask: How well can we distinguish between male and female study participants based on behavior alone? Which behavioral features are most predictive