Short-Term Load Forecasting of Natural Gas with Deep Neural Network Regression

Deep neural networks are proposed for short-term natural gas load forecasting. Deep learning has proven to be a powerful tool for many classification problems seeing significant use in machine learning fields such as image recognition and speech processing. We provide an overview of natural gas forecasting. Next, the deep learning method, contrastive divergence is explained. We compare our proposed deep neural network method to a linear regression model and a traditional artificial neural network on 62 operating areas, each of which has at least 10 years of data. The proposed deep network outperforms traditional artificial neural networks by 9.83% weighted mean absolute percent error (WMAPE)

Air Quality Prediction in Smart Cities Using Machine Learning Technologies Based on Sensor Data: A Review

The influence of machine learning technologies is rapidly increasing and penetrating almost in every field, and air pollution prediction is not being excluded from those fields. This paper covers the revision of the studies related to air pollution prediction using machine learning algorithms based on sensor data in the context of smart cities. Using the most popular databases and executing the corresponding filtration, the most relevant papers were selected. After thorough reviewing those papers, the main features were extracted, which served as a base to link and compare them to each other. As a result, we can conclude that: (1) instead of using simple machine learning techniques, currently, the authors apply advanced and sophisticated techniques, (2) China was the leading country in terms of a case study, (3) Particulate matter with diameter equal to 2.5 micrometers was the main prediction target, (4) in 41% of the publications the authors carried out the prediction for the next day, (5) 66% of the studies used data had an hourly rate, (6) 49% of the papers used open data and since 2016 it had a tendency to increase, and (7) for efficient air quality prediction it is important to consider the external factors such as weather conditions, spatial characteristics, and temporal features

Exploring Interpretable LSTM Neural Networks over Multi-Variable Data

For recurrent neural networks trained on time series with target and exogenous variables, in addition to accurate prediction, it is also desired to provide interpretable insights into the data. In this paper, we explore the structure of LSTM recurrent neural networks to learn variable-wise hidden states, with the aim to capture different dynamics in multi-variable time series and distinguish the contribution of variables to the prediction. With these variable-wise hidden states, a mixture attention mechanism is proposed to model the generative process of the target. Then we develop associated training methods to jointly learn network parameters, variable and temporal importance w.r.t the prediction of the target variable. Extensive experiments on real datasets demonstrate enhanced prediction performance by capturing the dynamics of different variables. Meanwhile, we evaluate the interpretation results both qualitatively and quantitatively. It exhibits the prospect as an end-to-end framework for both forecasting and knowledge extraction over multi-variable data.Comment: Accepted to International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 201

Weather Forecasting Using Merged Long Short-term Memory Model

Over decades, weather forecasting has attracted researchers from worldwide communities due to itssignificant effect to global human life ranging from agriculture, air trafic control to public security. Although formal study on weather forecasting has been started since 19th century, research attention to weather forecasting tasks increased significantly after weather big data are widely available. This paper proposed merged-Long Short-term Memory for forecasting ground visibility at the airpot using timeseries of predictor variable combined with another variable as moderating variable. The proposed models were tested using weather timeseries data at Hang Nadim Airport, Batam. The experiment results showedthe best average accuracy for forecasting visibility using merged Long Short-term Memory model and temperature and dew point as a moderating variable was (88.6%); whilst, using basic Long Short-term Memory without moderating variablewasonly (83.8%) respectively (increased by 4.8%)

Rainfall prediction using artificial neural network with historical weather data as supporting parameters

Changing climatic patterns are caused by changes in variables, such as rainfalland air temperature that occur continuously in the long term. Rainfall itself isinfluenced by several weather factors such as air humidity, wind speed, airpressure, and temperature. This study experimented to test a combination of9 additional weather parameters such as dew point, wind gusts, cloud cover,humidity, rainfall, air pressure, air temperature, wind direction, and windspeed to predict daily rainfall for one year using the main parameters of therainfall time series. Prediction is done using Artificial Neural Network(ANN). The ANN architecture used is to use 3 to 11 input parameters, 1hidden layer totaling 60 neurons with the ReLu activation function, and 1neuron in the output layer without an activation function. ANN withoutadditional weather parameters obtained an MSE of 0.01654, while predictionusing additional weather parameters obtained an MSE of 0.00884. So thecombination of rainfall time series parameters with additional weatherparameters is proven to provide a smaller MSE valu