Estimating Project Performance through a System Dynamics Learning Model

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordMonitoring of the technical progression of projects is highly difficult, especially for complex projects where the current state may be obscured by the use of traditional project metrics. Late detection of technical problems leads to high resolution costs and delayed delivery of projects. To counter this, we report on the development of a updated technical metrics process designed to help ensure the on-time delivery, to both cost and schedule, of high quality products by a U.K. Systems Engineering Company. Published best practice suggests the necessity of using planned parameter profiles crafted to support technical metrics; but these have proven difficult to create due to the variance in project types and noise within individual project systems. This paper presents research findings relevant to the creation of a model to help set valid planned parameter profiles for a diverse range of system engineering products; and in establishing how to help project users get meaningful use out of these planned parameter profiles. We present a solution using a System Dynamics (SD) model capable of generating suitable planned parameter profiles. The final validated and verified model overlays the idea of a learning “S-curve” abstraction onto a rework cycle system archetype. Once applied in SD this matched the mental models of experienced engineering managers within the company, and triangulates with validated empirical data from within the literature. This has delivered three key benefits in practice: the development of a heuristic for understanding the work flow within projects, as a result of the interaction between a project learning system and defect discovery; the ability to produce morphologically accurate performance baselines for metrics; and an approach for enabling teams to generate benefit from the model via the use of problem structuring methodology.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Engenharia de sistemas baseada em modelos: um sistema para o tráfego & ambiente

Doutoramento em Gestão IndustrialThe contemporary world is crowded of large, interdisciplinary, complex systems made of other systems, personnel, hardware, software, information, processes, and facilities. The Systems Engineering (SE) field proposes an integrated holistic approach to tackle these socio-technical systems that is crucial to take proper account of their multifaceted nature and numerous interrelationships, providing the means to enable their successful realization. Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is an emerging paradigm in the SE field and can be described as the formalized application of modelling principles, methods, languages, and tools to the entire lifecycle of those systems, enhancing communications and knowledge capture, shared understanding, improved design precision and integrity, better development traceability, and reduced development risks. This thesis is devoted to the application of the novel MBSE paradigm to the Urban Traffic & Environment domain. The proposed system, the GUILTE (Guiding Urban Intelligent Traffic & Environment), deals with a present-day real challenging problem “at the agenda” of world leaders, national governors, local authorities, research agencies, academia, and general public. The main purposes of the system are to provide an integrated development framework for the municipalities, and to support the (short-time and real-time) operations of the urban traffic through Intelligent Transportation Systems, highlighting two fundamental aspects: the evaluation of the related environmental impacts (in particular, the air pollution and the noise), and the dissemination of information to the citizens, endorsing their involvement and participation. These objectives are related with the high-level complex challenge of developing sustainable urban transportation networks. The development process of the GUILTE system is supported by a new methodology, the LITHE (Agile Systems Modelling Engineering), which aims to lightening the complexity and burdensome of the existing methodologies by emphasizing agile principles such as continuous communication, feedback, stakeholders involvement, short iterations and rapid response. These principles are accomplished through a universal and intuitive SE process, the SIMILAR process model (which was redefined at the light of the modern international standards), a lean MBSE method, and a coherent System Model developed through the benchmark graphical modeling languages SysML and OPDs/OPL. The main contributions of the work are, in their essence, models and can be settled as: a revised process model for the SE field, an agile methodology for MBSE development environments, a graphical tool to support the proposed methodology, and a System Model for the GUILTE system. The comprehensive literature reviews provided for the main scientific field of this research (SE/MBSE) and for the application domain (Traffic & Environment) can also be seen as a relevant contribution.O mundo contemporâneo é caracterizado por sistemas de grande dimensão e de natureza marcadamente complexa, sócio-técnica e interdisciplinar. A Engenharia de Sistemas (ES) propõe uma abordagem holística e integrada para desenvolver tais sistemas, tendo em consideração a sua natureza multifacetada e as numerosas inter-relações que advêm de uma quantidade significativa de diferentes pontos de vista, competências, responsabilidades e interesses. A Engenharia de Sistemas Baseada em Modelos (ESBM) é um paradigma emergente na área da ES e pode ser descrito como a aplicação formal de princípios, métodos, linguagens e ferramentas de modelação ao ciclo de vida dos sistemas descritos. Espera-se que, na próxima década, a ESBM desempenhe um papel fundamental na prática da moderna Engenharia de Sistemas. Esta tese é dedicada à aplicação da ESBM a um desafio real que constitui uma preocupação do mundo actual, estando “na agenda” dos líderes mundiais, governantes nacionais, autoridades locais, agências de investigação, universidades e público em geral. O domínio de aplicação, o Tráfego & Ambiente, caracteriza-se por uma considerável complexidade e interdisciplinaridade, sendo representativo das áreas de interesse para a ES. Propõe-se um sistema (GUILTE) que visa dotar os municípios de um quadro de desenvolvimento integrado para adopção de Sistemas de Transporte Inteligentes e apoiar as suas operações de tráfego urbano, destacando dois aspectos fundamentais: a avaliação dos impactos ambientais associados (em especial, a poluição atmosférica e o ruído) e a divulgação de informação aos cidadãos, motivando o seu envolvimento e participação. Estes objectivos relacionam-se com o desafio mais abrangente de desenvolver redes de transporte urbano sustentáveis. O processo de desenvolvimento do sistema apoia-se numa nova metodologia (LITHE), mais ágil, que enfatiza os princípios de comunicação contínua, feedback, participação e envolvimento dos stakeholders, iterações curtas e resposta rápida. Estes princípios são concretizados através de um processo de ES universal e intuitivo (redefinido à luz dos padrões internacionais), de um método simples e de linguagens gráficas de modelação de referência (SysML e OPDs/OPL). As principais contribuições deste trabalho são, na sua essência, modelos: um modelo revisto para o processo da ES, uma metodologia ágil para ambientes de desenvolvimento baseados em modelos, uma ferramenta gráfica para suportar a metodologia proposta e o modelo de um sistema para as operações de tráfego & ambiente num contexto urbano. Contribui-se ainda com uma cuidada revisão bibliográfica para a principal área de investigação (ES/ESBM) e para o domínio de aplicação (Tráfego & Ambiente)