Pioneers of Parametrics

This paper provides a historical account of the development of the field of parametrics through information obtained during interviews of twelve pioneers of the field. Cost model developers, users, and practitioners were interviewed with the intent to capture their views on the impact between cost estimation research and practice. The individuals interviewed represent a diverse range of perspectives including academia, government, and industry. Each perspective sheds light on the areas in which the field of parametrics has had an impact and which synergies have been influential in the development of the field. The implications of the findings are discussed in light of the future challenges for the field of parametrics

Systems Engineering Cost Estimation Across BAE Systems: Trans-Atlantic Collaboration and Identification of Future Opportunities

As organizations develop more complex systems, increased emphasis is being placed on Systems Engineering (SE) to ensure that cost, schedule, and performance targets are met. Correspondingly, the failure to adequately plan and fund the systems engineering effort appears to have contributed to a number of cost overruns and schedule slips, especially in the development of complex aerospace systems. This has resulted in a recent increased emphasis on revitalizing systems engineering in government and commercial organizations. COSYSMO, the Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model, is an “open” model that can help people reason about their decisions related to systems engineering through a structured approach for estimating systems engineering effort. BAE Systems, in close collaboration with University of Southern California (USC) Center for Systems and Software Engineering (CSSE) and the MIT/Lean Aerospace Initiative (LAI), has been intimately involved in the development and validation of the model since its inception and continues to collaborate on the refinement of the model

Los tratados de libre comercio de la Unión Europea: implicaciones para los países en desarrollo

En una clara ruptura con la política comercial que había conducido hasta entonces, debido en parte a la falta de progreso en las negociaciones de la Ronda de Doha y a los cambios experimentados en el equilibrio económico mundial, la Unión Europea anunció en 2006 su plan de negociar Tratados de Libre Comercio con un número de países y regiones. Para que puedan ofrecer a la industria europea nuevas oportunidades de crecimiento, estos tratados han de liberalizar sustancialmente todo el comercio entre las partes e ir más allá de lo acordado a nivel multilateral. Estos tratados también tienen implicaciones importantes para los países en desarrollo; tienen, ciertamente, el potencial para dar a éstos nuevas oportunidades comerciales, acompañar y asegurar sus procesos de reforma y convertirse en poderosos instrumentos al servicio del desarrollo. Sin embargo, la liberalización comercial entre economías con niveles de desarrollo muy distintos podría ser muy dañina para la parte más débil; para que la liberalización sea beneficiosa para los países menos avanzados, ha de permitirse que éstos puedan tomar medidas para proteger a sus industrias nacientes (subsidios, aranceles, intervención estatal, u otras herramientas de política industrial) hasta que alcancen la madurez necesaria para poder competir internacionalmente

Optimizing Optimism in Systems Engineers

Biases continue to be an important aspect of human judgment and decision making because they often occur subconsciously and can frequently lead to unfavorable outcomes. Optimism bias is one type of cognitive illusion that is often overlooked because of its association with good health and positive outcomes. However, the existence of optimism bias in human judgment can be very damaging especially when it distorts a person's view of future events. In order to better understand optimism bias we explore the benefits and downsides of optimism as well as some empirically-based origins of both optimism and pessimism. This provides a backdrop for a methodology for quantifying optimism and pessimism followed by a discussion about certain professions that make well-calibrated decisions. Results are explored from an optimism survey given to a cohort of eighty systems engineers, which ultimately portray the degree to which optimism bias influences decision making in the estimation of cost and schedule of large projects. A calibration exercise is designed to calibrate optimism in systems engineers with the ultimate goal of helping cost estimation realism. Finally, prescriptive advice is provided to help individual decision makers better optimize their optimism. The implications of this work are twofold. First, the mechanism for quantifying optimism in systems engineers provides useful insight into the degree of optimism that exists among this group of decision makers. This can influence a number of decision making processes that may traditionally be seen as immune from biases due to their routine nature. Second, the process for calibrating optimism provides a way to validate the effectiveness of optimism reduction techniques on different types of decision makers. It also helps to distinguish between certain people who are more receptive to bias corrections and are therefore more likely to be better estimators in real life

A Theory of Objective Sizing

The process of building parametric models to estimate the cost of large scale complex systems have recently uncovered unanticipated challenges. The most difficult of which includes the ability to define the boundary of the system being estimated. This boundary is an essential step towards determining the size of the system; a major input into parametric models. In this paper, we build on a concept from psychology known as the moon illusion to develop a theory of objective sizing. This theory has two main benefits: it helps explain why stakeholders have different views of systems and it provides an approach for how these differences can be reconciled. Ultimately it will help technical communities arrive at a more objective way for measuring system size which will ultimately improve the accuracy and influence of parametric models

Zen in the Art of Cost Estimation

Engineering cannot wait until all phenomena are explained. Engineers may work effectively, often for centuries, with heuristics. This paper provides over thirty heuristics that have been inspired by the development and application of a systems engineering cost estimation model. The objective of this paper is to present such heuristics in a simple manner so that they can benefit those that develop, calibrate, and use cost models

Myth Buster: Do Engineers Trust Parametric Models Over Their Own Intuition?

This paper explores the abilities of engineers to estimate everyday tasks and their reliance on their own intuition when performing cost estimates. The approach to answering these questions is similar to that of the popular television show MythBusters which aims to separate truth from urban legend using controlled experiments. In MythBusters, methods for testing myths and urban legends are usually planned and executed in a manner to produce the most visually dramatic results possible, which generally involves explosions, fires, or vehicle crashes. While the question of parametric models versus intuition is not as exciting, we provide an interesting result that demonstrates the difference between what is real and what is fiction in the world of cost estimation. Two heuristics, representativeness and anchoring, are explored in two experiments involving psychology students, engineering students, and engineering practitioners. The first experiment, designed to determine if there is a difference in estimating ability in everyday quantities, demonstrates that the three groups estimate with relatively equal accuracy. The results shed light on the distribution of estimates and the process of subjective judgment. The second experiment, designed to explore abilities for estimating the cost of software-intensive systems given incomplete information, shows that predictions by engineering students and practitioners are within 3-12% of each other. Results also show that engineers rely more on their intuition than on parametric models to make decisions. The value of this work is in helping better understand how software engineers make decisions based on limited information. Implications for the development of software cost estimation models are discussed in light of the findings from the two experiments

LM radar reflectivity simulation Final report

Ultrasonic simulation of lunar module radar reflectivit