A Big-Bang Big-Crunch Type-2 Fuzzy Logic-based System for Malaria Epidemic Prediction in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT- Malaria is a life-threatening disease caused by Plasmodium parasite infection with huge medical, economic, and social impact. Malaria is one of a serious public health problem in Ethiopia since 1959, even if, its morbidity and mortality have been reduced starting from 2001. Various studies were conducted to predict the Malaria epidemic using mathematical and statistical regression approaches, nevertheless, they had no learning capabilities. In this paper, we presented a type-2 fuzzy logic-based system for Malaria epidemic prediction (MEP) in Ethiopia which has been optimized by the Big-Bang Big-Crunch (BBBC) approach to maximizing the model accuracy and interpretability to predict for the future occurrence of Malaria. We compared the proposed BBBC optimized type-2 fuzzy logic-based system against its counterpart T1FLS, non-optimized T2FLS, ANFIS and ANN. The results show that the optimized proposed T2FLS provides a more interpretable model that predicts the future occurrence of Malaria from one up to three months ahead with optimal accuracy. This helps to answer the question of when and where must make preparation to prevent and control the occurrence of Malaria epidemic since the generated rules from our system were able to explain the situations and intensity of input factors which contributed to the Malaria epidemic and outbreak

A Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Based System for Malaria Epidemic Prediction in Ethiopia

Malaria is the most prevalent mosquito-borne disease throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world with severe medical, economic, and social impact. Malaria is a serious public health problem in Ethiopia since 1959, even if, its morbidity and mortality have been reduced starting from 2001. Various studies were conducted to predict the malaria epidemic using mathematical and statistical approaches, nevertheless, they had no learning capabilities. In this paper, we present a Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Based System for Malaria epidemic prediction in Ethiopia which was trained using real data collected throughout Ethiopia from 2013 to 2017. Fuzzy Logic Based Systems provide a transparent model which employs IF-Then rules for the prediction that could be easily analyzed and interpreted by decision-makers. This is quite important to fight the sources of Malaria and take the needed preventive measures where the generated rules from our system were able to explain the situations and intensity of input factors which contributed to Malaria epidemic incidence up to three months ahead. The presented Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (T2FLS) learns its rules and fuzzy set parameters from data and was able to outperform its counterparts T1FLS in 2% and ANFIS in 0.33% in the accuracy of prediction of Malaria epidemic in Ethiopia. In addition, the proposed system did shed light on the main causes behind such outbreaks in Ethiopia because of its high level of interpretabilit

COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comparative Prediction Using Machine Learning

Coronavirus Disease 2019 or COVID-19 is an infectious disease which is declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) have a noxious effect on the entire human civilization. Each and every day the number of infected people is going higher and higher and so the death toll. Many of country Italy, UK, USA was affected badly, yet since the identification of the first case, after a certain number of days, the scenario of infection rate has been reduced significantly. However, a country like Bangladesh couldn't keep the infection rate down. A number of algorithms have been proposed to forecast the scenario in terms of the number of infection, recovery and death toll. Here, in this work, we present a comprehensive comparison based on Machine Learning to predict the outbreak of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Among Several Machine Learning algorithms, here we used Polynomial Regression (PR) and Multilayer Perception (MLP) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm and epidemiological model Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR), projected comparative outcomes

Climatic, environmental and socio-economic factors for malaria transmission modelling in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Doctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) largely bears the burden of the global malaria disease, with the transmission and intensity influenced by the interaction of a variety of climatic, environmental, socio-economic, and human factors. Other factors include parasitic and vectoral factors. In South Africa (SA) in general and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in particular, the change of the malaria control intervention policy in 2000, may be responsible for the significant progress over the past two decades in reducing malaria case report to near zero. Currently, malaria incidence in KZN is less than 1 case per 1000 persons at risk placing the province in the malaria elimination stage. To meeting the elimination target, it is necessary to study the dynamics of malaria transmission in KZN employing various analytical/statistical models. Thus, the aim of this study was to explore the factors that influence malaria transmission by employing different analytical models and approaches in a setting with low malaria endemicity and transmission. This involves a sound appraisal of the existing literature on the contribution of remote sensing technology in understanding malaria transmission, evaluation of existing malaria control intervention; delineation of empirical map of malaria risk; provide information on the climatic, environmental and socio-economic factors that influences malaria risk and transmission; and formulation of a relevant malaria forecast and surveillance models. The investigator started with a systemic review of studies in chapter two. The studies were aimed at identifying significant remotely-sensed climatic and environmental determinants of malaria transmission for modelling malaria transmission and risk in SSA via a variety of statistical approaches. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) was identified as the most significant remotely-sensed climatic/environmental determinants of malaria transmission in SSA. Majority of the studies employed the generalised linear modelling approach compared to the Bayesian modelling approach. In the third chapter, malaria cases from the endemic areas of KZN with remotely-sensed climatic and environmental data were used to model the climatic and environmental determinants of malaria transmission and develop a malaria risk map in KZN. The spatiotemporal zero inflated Poisson model formulated indicates that at 95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) NDVI (0.91; 95% BCI = 0.71, -1.12), precipitation (0.11; 95% BCI = 0.08, 0.14), elevation (0.05; 95% BCI = 0.032, 0.07) and night temperature (0.04; 95% BCI = 0.03, 0.04) are significantly related to malaria transmission in KZN, SA. The area with the highest risk of malaria morbidity in KZN was identified as the north-eastern part of the province. The fourth chapter was to establish the socio-economic status (SES) that influence malaria transmission in the endemic areas of KZN, by employing a Bayesian inference approach. The obtained posterior samples revealed that, significant association existed between malaria disease and low SES such as illiteracy, unemployment, no toilet facilities and no electricity at 95% BCI Lack of toilet facilities (odds ration (OR) =12.54; 95% BCI = 0.63, 24.38) exhibited the strongest association with malaria and highest risk of malaria disease. This was followed by no education (OR =11.83; 95% BCI = 0.54, 24.27) and lack of electricity supply (OR =10.56; 95% BCI = 0.43, 23.92) respectively. In the fifth chapter, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention time series analysis (ITSA) was employed to model the effect of the malaria control intervention, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) on confirmed monthly malaria cases. The result is an abrupt and permanent decline of monthly malaria cases (w0= −1174.781, p-value = 0.003) following the implementation of the intervention policy. Finally, the sixth chapter employed a SARIMA modelling approach to predict malaria cases in the endemic areas of KZN. Three plausible models were identified, and based on the goodness of fit statistics and parameter estimation, the SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model was identified as the best fit model. The SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model was used to forecast malaria cases during 2014, and it was observed to fit closely with the reported malaria cases during January to December 2014. The models generated in this study demonstrated the need for the KZN malaria program, relevant policy makers and stakeholders to further strengthen the KZN malaria elimination efforts. The required malaria elimination fortification are not limited to the implementation of additional sustainable developmental approach that combines both improved malaria intervention resources and socio-economic conditions, strengthening of existing community health workers, and strengthening of the already existing cross-border collaborations. However, more studies in the area of statistical modelling as well as practical applications of the generated models are encouraged. These can be accomplished by exploring new avenues via cross-sectional survey to understand the impact of community and social related structures in malaria burden; strengthening of existing community health workers; knowledge, attitude and practices in malaria control and intervention; and the likely effects of temporal/seasonal and spatial variations of malaria incidence in neighbouring endemic countries should be explored

Summary of the Climate Information for Public Health Training Course: Palisades, New York. June 1-12, 2009

As the world's attention is increasingly focused on the effects of climate change, it is essential to better understand the role that climate plays in community health and disease. Equally important is the need for decisive, coordinated interaction between climate experts and health workers to decide how best to respond to the variations in climate that in part drive the burden of disease in communities of developing countries. The 2009 Summer Institute on Climate Information for Public Health (SI 09) was designed to engage professionals who play a key role in the operational decision-making for climate-sensitive diseases in identifying and evaluating appropriate use of climate information

Summer Institute on Climate Information for Public Health 2010

Now that the world’s attention is focused on climate variability and climate change adaptation, it is essential, not only for public health communities, but also for planners in central government, to understand the role climate plays in driving disease burden and impacting economic growth. Public health emerges as the final common pathway for all impacts of climate variability and climate change on individuals as well as societies

Climate information for public health : a curriculum for best practices : putting principles to work

The mission of the IRI is to enhance society’s capability to understand, anticipate and manage the impacts of climate in order to improve human welfare and the environment, especially in developing countries. The IRI conducts this mission through strategic and applied research, education, capacity building, and by providing forecasts and information products with an emphasis on practical and verifiable utility and partnership

Advances and challenges in automated malaria diagnosis using digital microscopy imaging with artificial intelligence tools: A review

Deep learning; Malaria diagnosis; Microscopic examinationAprenentatge profund; Diagnòstic de malària; Examen microscòpicAprendizaje profundo; Diagnóstico de malaria; Examen microscópicoMalaria is an infectious disease caused by parasites of the genus Plasmodium spp. It is transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito. It is the most common disease in resource-poor settings, with 241 million malaria cases reported in 2020 according to the World Health Organization. Optical microscopy examination of blood smears is the gold standard technique for malaria diagnosis; however, it is a time-consuming method and a well-trained microscopist is needed to perform the microbiological diagnosis. New techniques based on digital imaging analysis by deep learning and artificial intelligence methods are a challenging alternative tool for the diagnosis of infectious diseases. In particular, systems based on Convolutional Neural Networks for image detection of the malaria parasites emulate the microscopy visualization of an expert. Microscope automation provides a fast and low-cost diagnosis, requiring less supervision. Smartphones are a suitable option for microscopic diagnosis, allowing image capture and software identification of parasites. In addition, image analysis techniques could be a fast and optimal solution for the diagnosis of malaria, tuberculosis, or Neglected Tropical Diseases in endemic areas with low resources. The implementation of automated diagnosis by using smartphone applications and new digital imaging technologies in low-income areas is a challenge to achieve. Moreover, automating the movement of the microscope slide and image autofocusing of the samples by hardware implementation would systemize the procedure. These new diagnostic tools would join the global effort to fight against pandemic malaria and other infectious and poverty-related diseases.The project is funded by the Microbiology Department of Vall d’Hebron Universitary Hospital, the Cooperation Centre of the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (CCD-UPC) and the Probitas Foundation

Advances and challenges in automated malaria diagnosis using digital microscopy imaging with artificial intelligence tools: A review

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by parasites of the genus Plasmodium spp. It is transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito. It is the most common disease in resource-poor settings, with 241 illion malaria cases reported in 2020 according to the World Health Organization. Optical microscopy examination of blood smears is the gold standard technique for malaria diagnosis; however, it is a time-consuming method and a well-trained microscopist is needed to perform the microbiological diagnosis. New techniques based on digital imaging analysis by deep learning and artificial intelligence methods are a challenging alternative tool for the diagnosis of infectious diseases. In particular, systems based on Convolutional Neural Networks for image detection of the malaria parasites emulate the microscopy visualization of an expert. Microscope automation provides a fast and low-cost diagnosis, requiring less supervision. Smartphones are a suitable option for microscopic diagnosis, allowing image capture and software identification of parasites. In addition, image analysis techniques could be a fast and optimal solution for the diagnosis of malaria, tuberculosis, or Neglected Tropical Diseases in endemic areas with low resources. The implementation of automated diagnosis by using smartphone applications and new digital imaging technologies in low-income areas is a challenge to achieve. Moreover, automating the movement of the microscope slide and image autofocusing of the samples by hardware implementation would systemize the procedure. These new diagnostic tools would join the global effort to fight against pandemic malaria and other infectious and poverty-related diseases.The project is funded by the Microbiology Department of Vall d’Hebron Universitary Hospital, the Cooperation Centre of the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (CCD-UPC) and the Probitas FoundationPostprint (published version

Advances and challenges in automated malaria diagnosis using digital microscopy imaging with artificial intelligence tools : A review

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by parasites of the genus Plasmodium spp. It is transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito. It is the most common disease in resource-poor settings, with 241 million malaria cases reported in 2020 according to the World Health Organization. Optical microscopy examination of blood smears is the gold standard technique for malaria diagnosis; however, it is a time-consuming method and a well-trained microscopist is needed to perform the microbiological diagnosis. New techniques based on digital imaging analysis by deep learning and artificial intelligence methods are a challenging alternative tool for the diagnosis of infectious diseases. In particular, systems based on Convolutional Neural Networks for image detection of the malaria parasites emulate the microscopy visualization of an expert. Microscope automation provides a fast and low-cost diagnosis, requiring less supervision. Smartphones are a suitable option for microscopic diagnosis, allowing image capture and software identification of parasites. In addition, image analysis techniques could be a fast and optimal solution for the diagnosis of malaria, tuberculosis, or Neglected Tropical Diseases in endemic areas with low resources. The implementation of automated diagnosis by using smartphone applications and new digital imaging technologies in low-income areas is a challenge to achieve. Moreover, automating the movement of the microscope slide and image autofocusing of the samples by hardware implementation would systemize the procedure. These new diagnostic tools would join the global effort to fight against pandemic malaria and other infectious and poverty-related diseases