Risk assessment: methods on purpose?

International audienceWhen considering three proven methods of risk assessment widely used within energy sector, PHA, FMEA and HAZOP, the question of the adequacy of the method to objectives is raised. After introducing the methodological framework for risk assessment, we take a look at an overview of the three methods. From a perspective shaped by systemic paradigm, we propose the concept of symptom, as thread running through of each method. After detailing the specific symptoms for each method, we put forward two hypotheses. First, a method is not neutral and symptoms are a sign of inclination and drive representations of the scenarios developed. Second, risk assessment workshops, seen as privileged locations for organisational learning, change the relationship between actors and hazardous situations. By locating each method within the triangulation of definition from the systemic paradigm, we invite risk assessment experts to make their tacit knowledge as explicit as possible in order to identify operational levers to control their activity

The impact of inconsistent human annotations on AI driven clinical decision making

In supervised learning model development, domain experts are often used to provide the class labels (annotations). Annotation inconsistencies commonly occur when even highly experienced clinical experts annotate the same phenomenon (e.g., medical image, diagnostics, or prognostic status), due to inherent expert bias, judgments, and slips, among other factors. While their existence is relatively well-known, the implications of such inconsistencies are largely understudied in real-world settings, when supervised learning is applied on such ‘noisy’ labelled data. To shed light on these issues, we conducted extensive experiments and analyses on three real-world Intensive Care Unit (ICU) datasets. Specifically, individual models were built from a common dataset, annotated independently by 11 Glasgow Queen Elizabeth University Hospital ICU consultants, and model performance estimates were compared through internal validation (Fleiss’ κ = 0.383 i.e., fair agreement). Further, broad external validation (on both static and time series datasets) of these 11 classifiers was carried out on a HiRID external dataset, where the models’ classifications were found to have low pairwise agreements (average Cohen’s κ = 0.255 i.e., minimal agreement). Moreover, they tend to disagree more on making discharge decisions (Fleiss’ κ = 0.174) than predicting mortality (Fleiss’ κ = 0.267). Given these inconsistencies, further analyses were conducted to evaluate the current best practices in obtaining gold-standard models and determining consensus. The results suggest that: (a) there may not always be a “super expert” in acute clinical settings (using internal and external validation model performances as a proxy); and (b) standard consensus seeking (such as majority vote) consistently leads to suboptimal models. Further analysis, however, suggests that assessing annotation learnability and using only ‘learnable’ annotated datasets for determining consensus achieves optimal models in most cases

A Synthesized Methodology for Eliciting Expert Judgment for Addressing Uncertainty in Decision Analysis

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case. Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way to begin the task when compared to a subjective probability judgment. The procedure progresses to a quantitative evaluation of the qualitative uncertainty statement. In combination, the qualitative and quantitative assessments serve as information elicited from the expert that is in a subsequent step to develop a data set. The resulting data can be specified as probability distributions for use in a Monte Carlo simulation. A conceptual design weight estimation problem for a simplified launch vehicle model is used as an initial test case. Additional refinements to the methodology are made as the result of this test case and as the result of ongoing feedback from the expert. The refined methodology is demonstrated for a more complex full size launch vehicle model. The results of the full size launch vehicle model suggest that the methodology is a practical and useful approach for addressing uncertainty in decision analysis. As presented here, the methodology is well-suited for a decision domain that encompasses the conceptual design of a complex system. The generic nature of the methodology makes it readily adaptable to other decision domains. A follow-up evaluation is conducted utilizing multiple experts which serves as a validation of the methodology. The results of the follow-up evaluation suggest that the methodology is useful and that there is consistency and external validity in the definitions and methodology features

Food Anxieties: Issues for the Food Sector

People have become obsessed with the harmful effects of eating (Rozin, 1999) and are experiencing ‘food anxiety’, a by-product of modern food. The aim of this research was to explore the nature of food anxiety in Ireland and the potential implications for the food sector. The research objectives were to determine the range of issues causing food anxiety in Irish consumers; to investigate the impact of food anxiety on food choice behaviour; to examine the potential of food anxiety as a segmentation variable for categorizing consumers; and to identify antecedents to the experience of food anxiety. A sequential, mixed methodology research strategy was used. The research was conducted in two phases. The first phase adopted a qualitative approach. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with a convenience sample (n=40) to gain insight into food anxiety. The second stage adopted a quantitative approach. Survey questionnaires were administered to a randomly selected sample (n=490). Principal components analysis identified five dimensions of food anxiety when food shopping – (techno)ethical, nutritional, (micro)biological, dietary restrictions and food provenance anxiety. Food anxiety when eating out encompassed four distinct dimensions – technological, nutritional, food integrity and food trends anxiety. Spearman’s Rank Order Correlations established a significant relationship between food anxiety and food choice behaviour. Anxiety-based segmentation, using cluster analysis, identified three distinct clusters of food shoppers – ‘Nonchalant Consumers’, ‘Health Conscientious Consumers’ and ‘Anti-Modernist Circumspect Consumers’. The food-service market was segmented into ‘Easygoing Diners’, ‘Apprehensive Diners’ and ‘Distressed Diners’. Gender, age, marital status, income, education, body mass index, food responsibility, experience of food related illness, the presence of ‘high risk’ household members, living location, perceived personal knowledge, trust in food sector stakeholders and value priorities were found to be significant antecedents of food anxiety using Kruskal-Wallis Tests, Mann-Whitney U Tests and Spearman’s Rank Order Correlations. Binomial logistic regression analyses investigated which anxiety antecedents were of greatest value in predicting food anxiety when food shopping and eating out and identified that perceived personal knowledge of food-related issues and value priorities were of particular significance as predictors of food anxiety. Food producers, retailers and food-service operators should be alerted to the findings of this study because no previous research has focused on the existence of food anxiety or the link between food anxiety and food choice behaviour. This research presented a rationale for research into the concept of food anxiety. It is hoped that this study will stimulate further research into this important phenomenon

Expert knowledge elicitation in the firefighting domain and the implications for training novices

Background/Purpose: Experienced fireground commanders are often required to make important decisions in time-pressured and dynamic environments that are characterized by a wide range of task constraints. The nature of these environments is such that firefighters are sometimes faced with novel situations that seek to challenge their expertise and therefore necessitate making knowledge-based as opposed to rule-based decisions. The purpose of this study is to elicit the tacitly held knowledge which largely underpinned expert competence when managing non-routine fire incidents. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study utilized a formal knowledge elicitation tool known as the critical decision method (CDM). The CDM method was preferred to other cognitive task analysis (CTA) methods as it is specifically designed to probe the cognitive strategies of domain experts with reference to a single incident that was both challenging and memorable. Thirty experienced firefighters and one staff development officer were interviewed in-depth across different fire stations in the UK and Nigeria (UK=15, Nigeria=16). The interview transcripts were analyzed using the emergent themes analysis (ETA) approach. Findings: Findings from the study revealed 42 salient cues that were sought by experts at each decision point. A critical cue inventory (CCI) was developed and cues were categorized into five distinct types based on the type of information each cue generated to an incident commander. The study also developed a decision making model — information filtering and intuitive decision making model (IFID), which describes how the experienced firefighters were able to make difficult fireground decisions amidst multiple informational sources without having to deliberate on their courses of action. The study also compiled and indexed the elicited tacit knowledge into a competence assessment framework (CAF) with which the competence of future incident commanders could potentially be assessed. Practical Implications: Through the knowledge elicitation process, training needs were identified, and the practical implications for transferring the elicited experts’ knowledge to novice firefighters were also discussed. The four component instructional design model aided the conceptualization of the CDM outputs for training purposes. Originality/Value: Although it is widely believed that experts perform exceptionally well in their domains of practice, the difficulty still lies in finding how best to unmask expert (tacit) knowledge, particularly when it is intended for training purposes. Since tacit knowledge operates in the unconscious realm, articulating and describing it has been shown to be challenging even for experts themselves. This study is therefore timely since its outputs can facilitate the development of training curricula for novices, who then will not have to wait for real fires to occur before learning new skills. This statement holds true particularly in this era where the rate of real fires and therefore the opportunity to gain experience has been on a decline. The current study also presents and discusses insights based on the cultural differences that were observed between the UK and the Nigerian fire service

Project procurement system selection model (with particular reference to Saudi Arabia)

In the last two decades there has been a significant change in the technical and economic conditions prevailing in the construction industry. The traditional methods of procuring projects are now inadequate to cope with these changes. To overcome the shortcomings of the traditional procurement methods, the construction industry has developed a large number of different procurement systems to secure the relationships between contract parties. The proliferation of different procurement systems has created the problem of how to determine the optimum procurement system for any particular project. A systematic approach for selection of the most appropriate system is now needed. Throughout this thesis an investigation has been made of many of the issues related to the successful formulation of a Project Procurement System Selection Model (PPSSM). The knowledge of client needs in the construction industry is essential to the project success. This research has considered the fundamental role played by client needs in the process of procurement selection. The various categories of procurement system that exist in the construction industry are presented in order to address the benefits and drawbacks of each system. A careful investigation of the rules and regulations governing the Saudi construction industry has contributed very significantly to the success of the model building. An examination of the existing models revealed a number of drawbacks which are discussed in detail in this research. A survey was conducted in Saudi Arabia with the aim of testing the PPSSM for effectiveness and efficiency and assisting the governmental agencies to select the most appropriate procurement system to implement their projects. For this purpose, a questionnaire was developed and divided into three major parts: Background information; Data needed to operate PPSSM; and Evaluation of the criteria used for the selection of the procurement system. The results of the first and third parts are generated from 100 responses to the questionnaire mailed to the 110 governmental agencies that represent the population of the study, giving an overall response of (91%). For the second part only thirty senior government agency officers were involved in order to maintain consistency of data needed to operate the PPSSM. The data were analyzed using computer statistical packages: Excel and Statistical Analysis System (SAS). On the basis of the synthesis process of the PPSSM, Saudi public clients have selected "design and build" as the most appropriate procurement system to procure their projects with an overall priority of 0.49. Design and manage, construction management, and management contracting ranked second, third and fourth with priorities of 0.258, 0.140 and 0.106 respectively. The outcome of the study demonstrates the effectiveness of PPSSM in helping the client in the construction industry to choose the right procurement system that best answers his needs and fulfills the project requirements

Modelo de sistema baseado em conhecimento para apoiar processos de tomada de decisão em ciência e tecnologia

Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia e Gestão do Conhecimento, Florianópolis, 2010Os fluxos de capital e conhecimento que geram desenvolvimento socioeconômico são influenciados, no Brasil, por políticas, planejamento em C,T&I, e monitoramento. O sistema nacional de ciência, tecnologia e inovação, ou SNCTI, gera informação operacional disponível em plataformas públicas, mas a carência de sistemas de conhecimento nesse contexto leva à pergunta de pesquisa: como revelar conhecimentos para apoiar a tomada de decisão em C,T&I a partir de fontes de informação geradas pelos atores do SNCTI? Assim, foi criado um Modelo de Sistema Baseado em Conhecimento para apoiar processos de tomada de decisão em C,T&I baseado em instrumentos de Engenharia do Conhecimento (CommoKADS, KMDL, Ontologias OWL-DL e SWRL), e também, num referencial teórico-contextual sobre a C,T&I e Gestão do Conhecimento, para dar-lhe contexto, propósito e semântica. O Modelo criado foi aplicado num caso de planejamento em C&T, com a construção de um SBC, e verificou-se que o Modelo é capaz de usar informação de fontes públicas e revelar conhecimento para um Gestor de C,T&I. É escalável e é uma contribuição metodológica para a Engenharia do Conhecimento por articular diferentes instrumentos, e futuramente, pode ser experimentado em outras áreas do Conhecimento

Domestic food safety practices : exploring what is happening behind our kitchen doors

This submission lays out the prima facie case for the consideration of the award of Doctor of Philosophy by Published Work to Mary Brennan, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, University of Newcastle upon Tyne. The submission is made up of three parts: Part 1: The Doctoral Statement Part 2: The Set of Submitted Publications Part 3: Additional Required Documentation A set of nine publications have been chosen to represent the range of research undertaken. The articles are presented in a logical (though not necessarily chronological) order. Concise summaries of each publication, and a review of the research skills developed by the candidate are presented in section 2. The publications are summarised in the order in which the candidate suggests they should be read. The submission consists of two types of publications: Core and Supplementary (Table A). The set of six core publications was produced from one research project funded by Safefood – the Food Safety Promotions Board, Ireland. The project was entitled “Novel Food Risk Communication” and was conducted on the Island of Ireland (IOI) between July 2003 and July 2005. The project was jointly developed by the candidate and her co-investigator Dr Mary McCarthy (University College Cork, Ireland). In addition to Dr McCarthy, there were 4 other members of staff who contributed to the Safefood project: Professor Alan Kelly (Food Safety expert); Professor Chris Ritson (candidates supervisor and specialist in food consumer and marketing research); Ms Martine De Boer (Research Assistant, 2003-2005, UCC); & Dr Nicola Thompson (Research Assistant, 2004-2005, Newcastle University). All six of the core publications are joint authored papers. The three supplementary publications comprise of two joint authored book chapters and one single authored paper. These supplementary publications were produced from two additional research projects that the candidate has been involved in between 2002-2010. Kusnesof & Brennan (2004), a book chapter, presents a review of food risk and safety research. It was produced from research conducted for a project funded by the Food Standards Agency entitled ‘Communicating Food Risk Uncertainty’. This project was key to the development of the candidate’s research skills and provided her with both the training and publications iii record to successfully develop the Safefood project in collaboration with Dr McCarthy. Kuznesof and Brennan (2004) provided some of the academic base from which the Safefood project was developed. The second project entitled Quality Low Input Food (QLIF) was an EU funded 6th Framework integrated project. The candidate was part of the co-ordinating team that developed the full project and a member of the consumer sub project co-ordination team based at Newcastle. Ritson & Brennan (2008) and Brennan (2008) report on QLIF research findings. These three supplementary publications, linked by the candidates focus on exploring consumer attitudes to food and food safety, provide further evidence of the academic experience and skills the candidate has developed over the course of this doctoral period. Formal written confirmation from all co-authors of the candidate’s contribution to each publication has been obtained and can be found in Part 3, Section 1.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Periodismo científico y cambio climático: la comunicación científica especializada en percepción social de las tecnologías energéticas emergentes. El caso de la Fundación Ciudad de la Energía

Programa Oficial de Doctorado en Investigación en Medios de ComunicaciónPresidente: Rosario de Mateo Pérez.- Secretario: Daniel Jesús Catalán Matamoros.- Vocal: Benjamín Sánchez Jimen