Support Vector Machine Approach for Non-Technical Losses Identification in Power Distribution Systems

Electricity consumer fraud is a problem faced by all power utilities. Finding efficient measurements for detecting fraudulent electricity consumption has been an active research area in recent years. In this paper,the approach towards nontechnical loss (NTL) detection in power utilities using an artificial intelligence based technique, Support Vector Machine (SVM), are presented. This approach provides a method of data mining, which involves feature extraction from past consumption data. This SVM based approach uses customer load profile information and additional attributes to expose abnormal behavior that is known to be highly correlated with NTL activities. Some key advantages of SVM in data clustering, among which is the easy way of using them to fit the data of a wide range of features are discussed here. Finally, some major weakness of using SVM in clustering for NTL identification are identified, which leads to motivate for the scope of Optimum-Path Forest, a new model of NTL identification

Mondrian Forests for Large-Scale Regression when Uncertainty Matters

Many real-world regression problems demand a measure of the uncertainty associated with each prediction. Standard decision forests deliver efficient state-of-the-art predictive performance, but high-quality uncertainty estimates are lacking. Gaussian processes (GPs) deliver uncertainty estimates, but scaling GPs to large-scale data sets comes at the cost of approximating the uncertainty estimates. We extend Mondrian forests, first proposed by Lakshminarayanan et al. (2014) for classification problems, to the large-scale non-parametric regression setting. Using a novel hierarchical Gaussian prior that dovetails with the Mondrian forest framework, we obtain principled uncertainty estimates, while still retaining the computational advantages of decision forests. Through a combination of illustrative examples, real-world large-scale datasets, and Bayesian optimization benchmarks, we demonstrate that Mondrian forests outperform approximate GPs on large-scale regression tasks and deliver better-calibrated uncertainty assessments than decision-forest-based methods.Comment: Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 2016, Cadiz, Spain. JMLR: W&CP volume 5

Uma abordagem de agrupamento baseada na técnica de divisão e conquista e floresta de caminhos ótimos

Orientador: Alexandre Xavier FalcãoDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de ComputaçãoResumo: O agrupamento de dados é um dos principais desafios em problemas de Ciência de Dados. Apesar do seu progresso científico em quase um século de existência, algoritmos de agrupamento ainda falham na identificação de grupos (clusters) naturalmente relacionados com a semântica do problema. Ademais, os avanços das tecnologias de aquisição, comunicação, e armazenamento de dados acrescentam desafios cruciais com o aumento considerável de dados, os quais não são tratados pela maioria das técnicas. Essas questões são endereçadas neste trabalho através da proposta de uma abordagem de divisão e conquista para uma técnica de agrupamento única em encontrar um grupo por domo da função de densidade de probabilidade dos dados --- o algoritmo de agrupamento por floresta de caminhos ótimos (OPF - Optimum-Path Forest). Nesta técnica, amostras são interpretadas como nós de um grafo cujos arcos conectam os $k$-vizinhos mais próximos no espaço de características. Os nós são ponderados pela sua densidade de probabilidade e um mapa de conexidade é maximizado de modo que cada máximo da função densidade de probabilidade se torna a raiz de uma árvore de caminhos ótimos (grupo). O melhor valor de $k$ é estimado por otimização em um intervalo de valores dependente da aplicação. O problema com este método é que um número alto de amostras torna o algoritmo inviável, devido ao espaço de memória necessário para armazenar o grafo e o tempo computacional para encontrar o melhor valor de $k$. Visto que as soluções existentes levam a resultados ineficazes, este trabalho revisita o problema através da proposta de uma abordagem de divisão e conquista com dois níveis. No primeiro nível, o conjunto de dados é dividido em subconjuntos (blocos) menores e as amostras pertencentes a cada bloco são agrupadas pelo algoritmo OPF. Em seguida, as amostras representativas de cada grupo (mais especificamente as raízes da floresta de caminhos ótimos) são levadas ao segundo nível, onde elas são agrupadas novamente. Finalmente, os rótulos de grupo obtidos no segundo nível são transferidos para todas as amostras do conjunto de dados através de seus representantes do primeiro nível. Nesta abordagem, todas as amostras, ou pelo menos muitas delas, podem ser usadas no processo de aprendizado não supervisionado, sem afetar a eficácia do agrupamento e, portanto, o procedimento é menos susceptível a perda de informação relevante ao agrupamento. Os resultados mostram agrupamentos satisfatórios em dois cenários, segmentação de imagem e agrupamento de dados arbitrários, tendo como base a comparação com abordagens populares. No primeiro cenário, a abordagem proposta atinge os melhores resultados em todas as bases de imagem testadas. No segundo cenário, os resultados são similares aos obtidos por uma versão otimizada do método original de agrupamento por floresta de caminhos ótimosAbstract: Data clustering is one of the main challenges when solving Data Science problems. Despite its progress over almost one century of research, clustering algorithms still fail in identifying groups naturally related to the semantics of the problem. Moreover, the advances in data acquisition, communication, and storage technologies add crucial challenges with a considerable data increase, which are not handled by most techniques. We address these issues by proposing a divide-and-conquer approach to a clustering technique, which is unique in finding one group per dome of the probability density function of the data --- the Optimum-Path Forest (OPF) clustering algorithm. In the OPF-clustering technique, samples are taken as nodes of a graph whose arcs connect the $k$-nearest neighbors in the feature space. The nodes are weighted by their probability density values and a connectivity map is maximized such that each maximum of the probability density function becomes the root of an optimum-path tree (cluster). The best value of $k$ is estimated by optimization within an application-specific interval of values. The problem with this method is that a high number of samples makes the algorithm prohibitive, due to the required memory space to store the graph and the computational time to obtain the clusters for the best value of $k$. Since the existing solutions lead to ineffective results, we decided to revisit the problem by proposing a two-level divide-and-conquer approach. At the first level, the dataset is divided into smaller subsets (blocks) and the samples belonging to each block are grouped by the OPF algorithm. Then, the representative samples (more specifically the roots of the optimum-path forest) are taken to a second level where they are clustered again. Finally, the group labels obtained in the second level are transferred to all samples of the dataset through their representatives of the first level. With this approach, we can use all samples, or at least many samples, in the unsupervised learning process without affecting the grouping performance and, therefore, the procedure is less likely to lose relevant grouping information. We show that our proposal can obtain satisfactory results in two scenarios, image segmentation and the general data clustering problem, in comparison with some popular baselines. In the first scenario, our technique achieves better results than the others in all tested image databases. In the second scenario, it obtains outcomes similar to an optimized version of the traditional OPF-clustering algorithmMestradoCiência da ComputaçãoMestre em Ciência da ComputaçãoCAPE

An Overview on Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Optical Networks

Today's telecommunication networks have become sources of enormous amounts of widely heterogeneous data. This information can be retrieved from network traffic traces, network alarms, signal quality indicators, users' behavioral data, etc. Advanced mathematical tools are required to extract meaningful information from these data and take decisions pertaining to the proper functioning of the networks from the network-generated data. Among these mathematical tools, Machine Learning (ML) is regarded as one of the most promising methodological approaches to perform network-data analysis and enable automated network self-configuration and fault management. The adoption of ML techniques in the field of optical communication networks is motivated by the unprecedented growth of network complexity faced by optical networks in the last few years. Such complexity increase is due to the introduction of a huge number of adjustable and interdependent system parameters (e.g., routing configurations, modulation format, symbol rate, coding schemes, etc.) that are enabled by the usage of coherent transmission/reception technologies, advanced digital signal processing and compensation of nonlinear effects in optical fiber propagation. In this paper we provide an overview of the application of ML to optical communications and networking. We classify and survey relevant literature dealing with the topic, and we also provide an introductory tutorial on ML for researchers and practitioners interested in this field. Although a good number of research papers have recently appeared, the application of ML to optical networks is still in its infancy: to stimulate further work in this area, we conclude the paper proposing new possible research directions

Swarm-based Descriptor Combination and its Application for Image Classification

In this paper, we deal with the descriptor combination problem in image classification tasks. This problem refers to the definition of an appropriate combination of image content descriptors that characterize different visual properties, such as color, shape and texture. In this paper, we propose to model the descriptor combination as a swarm-based optimization problem, which finds out the set of parameters that maximizes the classification accuracy of the Optimum-Path Forest (OPF) classifier. In our model, a descriptor is seen as a pair composed of a feature extraction algorithm and a suitable distance function. Our strategy here is to combine distance scores defined by different descriptors, as well as to employ them to weight OPF edges, which connect samples in the feature space. An extensive evaluation of several swarm-based optimization techniques was performed. Experimental results have demonstrated the robustness of the proposed combination approach