Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water-centric ecosystem model

We developed a water-centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI-C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI-C model was evaluated with basin-scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates by multiple independent methods across 2103 eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2006. Our results indicate that WaSSI-C captured the spatial and temporal variability and the effects of large droughts on key ecosystem fluxes. Our modeled mean (±standard deviation in space) ET (556 ± 228 mm yr−1) compared well to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based (527 ± 251 mm yr−1) and watershed water balance based ET (571 ± 242 mm yr−1). Our mean annual GEP estimates (1362 ± 688 g C m−2 yr−1) compared well (R2 = 0.83) to estimates (1194 ± 649 g C m−2 yr−1) by eddy flux-based EC-MOD model, but both methods led significantly higher (25–30%) values than the standard MODIS product (904 ± 467 g C m−2 yr−1). Among the 18 water resource regions, the southeast ranked the highest in terms of its water yield and carbon sequestration capacity. When all ecosystems were considered, the mean NEE (−353 ± 298 g C m−2 yr−1) predicted by this study was 60% higher than EC-MOD\u27s estimate (−220 ± 225 g C m−2 yr−1) in absolute magnitude, suggesting overall high uncertainty in quantifying NEE at a large scale. Our water-centric model offers a new tool for examining the trade-offs between regional water and carbon resources under a changing environment

Effects of processes at the population and community level on carbon dynamics of an ecosystem model

Ecological processes at the population and community level are often ignored in biogeochemical models, however, the effects of excluding these processes at the ecosystem level is uncertain. In this study we analyzed the set of behaviors that emerge after introducing population and community processes into an ecosystem carbon model. We used STANDCARB, a hybrid model that incorporates population, community, and ecosystem processes to predict carbon dynamics over time. Our simulations showed that at the population level, colonization and mortality rates can limit the maximum biomass achieved during a successional sequence. Specifically, colonization rates control temporal lags in the initiation of carbon accumulation, and mortality rates can have important effects on annual variation in live biomass. At the community level, differences in species traits and changes in species composition over time introduced significant changes in carbon dynamics. Species with different set of parameters, such as growth and mortality rates, introduce patterns of carbon accumulation that could not be reproduced using a single species with the average of parameters of multiple species or by simulating the most abundant species (strategies commonly employed in terrestrial biogeochemical models). We conclude that omitting population and community processes from biogeochemical models introduces an important source of uncertainty that can impose important limitations for predictions of future carbon balances

Drought effects on large fire activity in Canadian and Alaskan forests

Fire is the dominant disturbance in forest ecosystems across Canada and Alaska, and has important implications for forest ecosystems, terrestrial carbon dioxide emissions and the forestry industry. Large fire activity had increased in Canadian and Alaskan forests during the last four decades of the 20th century. Here we combined the Palmer Drought Severity Index and historical large fire databases to demonstrate that Canada and Alaska forest regions experienced summer drying over this time period, and drought during the fire season significantly affected forest fire activity in these regions. Climatic warming, positive geopotential height anomalies and ocean circulation patterns were spatially and temporally convolved in causing drought conditions, which in turn enhanced fuel flammability and thereby indirectly affected fire activity. Future fire regimes will likely depend on drought patterns under global climate change scenarios

White paper – On the use of LiDAR data at AmeriFlux sites

Our aim is to inform the AmeriFlux community on existing and upcoming LiDAR technologies (atmospheric Doppler or Raman LiDAR often deployed at flux sites are not considered here), how it is currently used at flux sites, and how we believe it could, in the future, further contribute to the AmeriFlux vision. Heterogeneity in vegetation and ground properties at various spatial scales is omnipresent at flux sites, and 3D mapping of canopy, understory, and ground surface can help move the science forward

ASSESSING FOREST RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESOLVING PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENTS ACROSS SPATIAL SCALES

Informed decisions regarding forest and carbon resources require knowledge of the impacts of environmental changes on forest productivity. We also need to reconcile the diverging productivity estimates that are presently available. This dissertation assembles two publications addressing the impacts of climate change on forest productivity and one exploring the relationship between three estimates of forest productivity. In the first chapter, I evaluated whether forests have responded to recent changes in climatic conditions. Through combining published evidence I show that forests have responded to changes in the patterns of light, water, and temperatures over the last half of the 20th century. Most published studies showed a positive growth trend. Negative growth trends were found for drier study areas. Conclusions on the greening of the world\u27s forests, are difficult due to poor geographical coverage and measurement method disparity. In the second chapter, I compared three productivity estimation methods (two ground-based and one satellite-based) using 166 sites in Austria. Results of disturbance-free projections show the relevance of each method to actual site productivity and their combined usefulness in identifying the most appropriate scale for monitoring climate forcings. Each estimation method provides information on a portion of the underlying actual NPP. In the last chapter, I explore the effect of three IPCC climate change scenarios on forests of the US Northern Rockies. Results show an increase in growing season length and in water stress, and a decrease in snow quantities and in number of days with ground snow for all forests by 2089. Under the driest and warmest scenario, the majority of the sites became carbon sources, and I identify a water/temperature tipping point, past which system stored carbon drastically declines. For these disturbance-free projections, water availability drove the system. In this dissertation, I resolve a otential source of conflict among forest productivity estimates; combined, these estimates lead to a broader understanding of productivity. I also present evidence that forests are already responding to climate change, and that more drastic changes are likely in the future

Ecosystem carbon 7 dioxide fluxes after disturbance in forests of North America

Disturbances are important for renewal of North American forests. Here we summarize more than 180 site years of eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide flux made at forest chronosequences in North America. The disturbances included stand-replacing fire (Alaska, Arizona, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan) and harvest (British Columbia, Florida, New Brunswick, Oregon, Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Wisconsin) events, insect infestations (gypsy moth, forest tent caterpillar, and mountain pine beetle), Hurricane Wilma, and silvicultural thinning (Arizona, California, and New Brunswick). Net ecosystem production (NEP) showed a carbon loss from all ecosystems following a stand-replacing disturbance, becoming a carbon sink by 20 years for all ecosystems and by 10 years for most. Maximum carbon losses following disturbance (g C m−2y−1) ranged from 1270 in Florida to 200 in boreal ecosystems. Similarly, for forests less than 100 years old, maximum uptake (g C m−2y−1) was 1180 in Florida mangroves and 210 in boreal ecosystems. More temperate forests had intermediate fluxes. Boreal ecosystems were relatively time invariant after 20 years, whereas western ecosystems tended to increase in carbon gain over time. This was driven mostly by gross photosynthetic production (GPP) because total ecosystem respiration (ER) and heterotrophic respiration were relatively invariant with age. GPP/ER was as low as 0.2 immediately following stand-replacing disturbance reaching a constant value of 1.2 after 20 years. NEP following insect defoliations and silvicultural thinning showed lesser changes than stand-replacing events, with decreases in the year of disturbance followed by rapid recovery. NEP decreased in a mangrove ecosystem following Hurricane Wilma because of a decrease in GPP and an increase in ER

Tools for Assessing Climate Impacts on Fish and Wildlife

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how climate-impacts modeling can be used to address management concerns, providing examples of model-based assessments of climate impacts on salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest, fire regimes in the boreal region of Canada, prairies and savannas in the Willamette Valley-Puget Sound Trough-Georgia Basin ecoregion, and marten Martes americana populations in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. We also highlight some key limitations of these models and discuss how such limitations should be managed. We conclude with a general discussion of how these models can be integrated into fish and wildlife management