Spatial Models to Account for Variation in Observer Effort in Bird Atlases

To assess the importance of variation in observer effort between and within bird atlas projects and demonstrate the use of relatively simple conditional autoregressive (CAR) models for analyzing grid-based atlas data with varying effort. Pennsylvania and West Virginia, United States of America. We used varying proportions of randomly selected training data to assess whether variations in observer effort can be accounted for using CAR models and whether such models would still be useful for atlases with incomplete data. We then evaluated whether the application of these models influenced our assessment of distribution change between two atlas projects separated by twenty years (Pennsylvania), and tested our modeling methodology on a state bird atlas with incomplete coverage (West Virginia). Conditional Autoregressive models which included observer effort and landscape covariates were able to make robust predictions of species distributions in cases of sparse data coverage. Further, we found that CAR models without landscape covariates performed favorably. These models also account for variation in observer effort between atlas projects and can have a profound effect on the overall assessment of distribution change. Accounting for variation in observer effort in atlas projects is critically important. CAR models provide a useful modeling framework for accounting for variation in observer effort in bird atlas data because they are relatively simple to apply, and quick to run

Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil

This paper presents some new estimates for the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Brazil based on a new Keynesian hypothesis about the behavior of the economy. Four main hypotheses are tested and sustained throughout the study: i) agents do not have perfect rationality; ii) the imperfection in the agents expectations generating process may be an important factor in explaining the high persistence (inertia) of Brazilian inflation; iii) inflation does have an autonomous inertial component, without linkage to shocks in individual markets; iv) a non-linear relationship between inflation and unemployment is able to provide better explanations for the inflation-unemployment relationship in the Brazilian economy in the last 12 years. While the first two hypotheses are tested using a Markov Switching based model of regime changes, the remaining two are tested in a context of a convex Phillips Curve estimated using the Kalman filter. Despite the methodological and estimation improvements provided in the paper, the impulse-response functions for the monetary policy presented the same properties shown in the literature that uses Brazilian dataPhillips Curve; Expectations; Inflation; NAIRU-gap; Markov Switching Models; Kalman Filter; SUR

Fecal contamination of drinking-water in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: access to safe drinking-water is a fundamental requirement for good health and is also a human right. Global access to safe drinking-water is monitored by WHO and UNICEF using as an indicator “use of an improved source,” which does not account for water quality measurements. Our objectives were to determine whether water from “improved” sources is less likely to contain fecal contamination than “unimproved” sources and to assess the extent to which contamination varies by source type and setting.Methods and findings: studies in Chinese, English, French, Portuguese, and Spanish were identified from online databases, including PubMed and Web of Science, and grey literature. Studies in low- and middle-income countries published between 1990 and August 2013 that assessed drinking-water for the presence of Escherichia coli or thermotolerant coliforms (TTC) were included provided they associated results with a particular source type. In total 319 studies were included, reporting on 96,737 water samples. The odds of contamination within a given study were considerably lower for “improved” sources than “unimproved” sources (odds ratio [OR] = 0.15 [0.10–0.21], I2 = 80.3% [72.9–85.6]). However over a quarter of samples from improved sources contained fecal contamination in 38% of 191 studies. Water sources in low-income countries (OR = 2.37 [1.52–3.71]; p<0.001) and rural areas (OR = 2.37 [1.47–3.81] p<0.001) were more likely to be contaminated. Studies rarely reported stored water quality or sanitary risks and few achieved robust random selection. Safety may be overestimated due to infrequent water sampling and deterioration in quality prior to consumption.Conclusion: access to an “improved source” provides a measure of sanitary protection but does not ensure water is free of fecal contamination nor is it consistent between source types or settings. International estimates therefore greatly overstate use of safe drinking-water and do not fully reflect disparities in access. An enhanced monitoring strategy would combine indicators of sanitary protection with measures of water qualit

Lessons Learned and Next Steps in Energy Efficiency Measurement and Attribution: Energy Savings, Net to Gross, Non-Energy Benefits, and Persistence of Energy Efficiency Behavior

This white paper examines four topics addressing evaluation, measurement, and attribution of direct and indirect effects to energy efficiency and behavioral programs: Estimates of program savings (gross); Net savings derivation through free ridership / net to gross analyses; Indirect non-energy benefits / impacts (e.g., comfort, convenience, emissions, jobs); and, Persistence of savings

Rural finance policies for food security of the poor

The objective of IFPRI's multicountry research program on rural financial policies for food security of the poor is to identify policies and institutional arrangements that help the poor integrate themselves into sustainable savings and credit systems such that they have an increased capacity to invest, bear risk, and smooth consumption. The focus of the research on policy and program design and their effects on household investment and consumption requires field data collection at the institutional and household level. This paper presents the underlying conceptual framework and various methodological approaches that have been reviewed and tested by the team at IFPRI and at collaborating institutions. Methodologies are presented for analysis at the institutional level, mainly focusing on the determinants of the formation of financial institutions and the analysis of effects of program design on institutional conduct and performance, and at the household level, thereby addressing determinants of access to and participation in financial markets and related effects on household welfare.Food security Developing countries. ,Financial institutions. ,Households Economic aspects. ,

Outbreak of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus among Criticially Endangered Mongolian Saiga and Other Wild Ungulates, Mongolia, 2016-2017

The 2016–2017 introduction of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) into livestock in Mongolia was followed by mass mortality of the critically endangered Mongolian saiga antelope and other rare wild ungulates. To assess the nature and population effects of this outbreak among wild ungulates, we collected clinical, histopathologic, epidemiologic, and ecological evidence. Molecular characterization confirmed that the causative agent was PPRV lineage IV. The spatiotemporal patterns of cases among wildlife were similar to those among livestock affected by the PPRV outbreak, suggesting spillover of virus from livestock at multiple locations and time points and subsequent spread among wild ungulates. Estimates of saiga abundance suggested a population decline of 80%, raising substantial concerns for the species’ survival. Consideration of the entire ungulate community (wild and domestic) is essential for elucidating the epidemiology of PPRV in Mongolia, addressing the threats to wild ungulate conservation, and achieving global PPRV eradication

Spatial ecology and conservation of the critically endangered swift parrot

Conservation of highly mobile resource specialists depends on understanding where and when resources are available and how populations respond to resource configuration. These species are often resource specialists, which can make them vulnerable to resource bottlenecks in time and space. When they also have dynamic distributions, data collection and conservation planning is extremely challenging. Therefore, for species like the swift parrot, which is a highly mobile resource specialist with a dynamic distribution, ecologically relevant and spatiotemporally explicit estimates of distributions are urgently needed to guide conservation planning. Prior to this research little was known of spatiotemporal variation in the distribution of the critically endangered migratory swift parrot in its breeding range. The swift parrot requires co-occurrence of two key functional habitats to breed (nesting and foraging) and relies on the flowering of Eucalyptus globulus and E. ovata for food. The overall aim of this research was to better understand and quantify the spatial ecology of the species to improve conservation planning and outcomes. The main impetus for this research was continuing extensive habitat loss (as a result of industrial-scale logging and land clearance) without an understanding of i) the importance of the loss of key sites or locations and ii) the implications of the discovery of novel predator during the course of the study. Firstly, this thesis quantifies and describes a key functional habitat feature (i.e. nesting trees) to assist accurate identification of nesting habitat (Chapter 2). The research then uses data from a unique multi-year monitoring program to i) extend modelling approaches to account for imperfect detection and spatial autocorrelation, ii) quantify the strong link between changing food availability and the species distribution, and iii)quantify how this varies over time (Chapter 3). Then, using data sampled from each functional habitat the research quantifies annual change in the use, location and availability of functional habitats over the entire breeding range (Chapter 4). Finally, the abundance-occupancy relationship (AOR) is quantified temporally and spatially to better understand the implications of spatiotemporal changes in abundance and resource availability for the interpretation species distribution models (SDMs) (Chapter 5). This research reveals highly aggregated nesting behaviour of the swift parrot at multiple spatial scales, and provides one of the first macroecological examples to quantify a direct link between the spatiotemporal distribution of a highly mobile species and food availability. This spatiotemporal variation in food not only means the availability of functional habitats can vary dramatically between years, but also that an increase or decrease in one functional habitat does necessarily correspond to a relative increase or decrease in the other. This has important ramifications for interpreting SDMs, identifying when and where resource bottlenecks may occur, and the assessment of exposure to other spatially variable threats (e.g. predation). Further, the research shows the AOR for mobile species in dynamic distributions can be highly variable over time and space. Importantly, the results also highlight that locations with high predicted occupancy and/or abundance do not necessarily equate to areas of high quality habitat. This thesis delivers some of the first fundamental and quantitative insights into the spatial ecology of highly mobile species that rely on variable environments, and provides guidance towards informing and developing conservation plans for this difficult to study group of species