Basins of Attraction, Commitment Sets and Phenotypes of Boolean Networks

The attractors of Boolean networks and their basins have been shown to be highly relevant for model validation and predictive modelling, e.g., in systems biology. Yet there are currently very few tools available that are able to compute and visualise not only attractors but also their basins. In the realm of asynchronous, non-deterministic modeling not only is the repertoire of software even more limited, but also the formal notions for basins of attraction are often lacking. In this setting, the difficulty both for theory and computation arises from the fact that states may be ele- ments of several distinct basins. In this paper we address this topic by partitioning the state space into sets that are committed to the same attractors. These commitment sets can easily be generalised to sets that are equivalent w.r.t. the long-term behaviours of pre-selected nodes which leads us to the notions of markers and phenotypes which we illustrate in a case study on bladder tumorigenesis. For every concept we propose equivalent CTL model checking queries and an extension of the state of the art model checking software NuSMV is made available that is capa- ble of computing the respective sets. All notions are fully integrated as three new modules in our Python package PyBoolNet, including functions for visualising the basins, commitment sets and phenotypes as quotient graphs and pie charts

Tree-formed Verification Data for Trusted Platforms

The establishment of trust relationships to a computing platform relies on validation processes. Validation allows an external entity to build trust in the expected behaviour of the platform based on provided evidence of the platform's configuration. In a process like remote attestation, the 'trusted' platform submits verification data created during a start up process. These data consist of hardware-protected values of platform configuration registers, containing nested measurement values, e.g., hash values, of loaded or started components. Commonly, the register values are created in linear order by a hardware-secured operation. Fine-grained diagnosis of components, based on the linear order of verification data and associated measurement logs, is not optimal. We propose a method to use tree-formed verification data to validate a platform. Component measurement values represent leaves, and protected registers represent roots of a hash tree. We describe the basic mechanism of validating a platform using tree-formed measurement logs and root registers and show an logarithmic speed-up for the search of faults. Secure creation of a tree is possible using a limited number of hardware-protected registers and a single protected operation. In this way, the security of tree-formed verification data is maintained.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, v3: Reference added, v4: Revised, accepted for publication in Computers and Securit

Infectivity Enhances Prediction of Viral Cascades in Twitter

Models of contagion dynamics, originally developed for infectious diseases, have proven relevant to the study of information, news, and political opinions in online social systems. Modelling diffusion processes and predicting viral information cascades are important problems in network science. Yet, many studies of information cascades neglect the variation in infectivity across different pieces of information. Here, we employ early-time observations of online cascades to estimate the infectivity of distinct pieces of information. Using simulations and data from real-world Twitter retweets, we demonstrate that these estimated infectivities can be used to improve predictions about the virality of an information cascade. Developing our simulations to mimic the real-world data, we consider the effect of the limited effective time for transmission of a cascade and demonstrate that a simple model for slow but non-negligible decay of the infectivity captures the essential properties of retweet distributions. These results demonstrate the interplay between the intrinsic infectivity of a tweet and the complex network environment within which it diffuses, strongly influencing the likelihood of becoming a viral cascade.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure

Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events

There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks