CLADAG 2021 BOOK OF ABSTRACTS AND SHORT PAPERS

The book collects the short papers presented at the 13th Scientific Meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society (SIS). The meeting has been organized by the Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications of the University of Florence, under the auspices of the Italian Statistical Society and the International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS). CLADAG is a member of the IFCS, a federation of national, regional, and linguistically-based classification societies. It is a non-profit, non-political scientific organization, whose aims are to further classification research

Sensor based real-time process monitoring for ultra-precision manufacturing processes with non-linearity and non-stationarity

This research investigates methodologies for real-time process monitoring in ultra-precision manufacturing processes, specifically, chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) and ultra-precision machining (UPM), are investigated in this dissertation.The three main components of this research are as follows: (1) developing a predictive modeling approaches for early detection of process anomalies/change points, (2) devising approaches that can capture the non-Gaussian and non-stationary characteristics of CMP and UPM processes, and (3) integrating multiple sensor data to make more reliable process related decisions in real-time.In the first part, we establish a quantitative relationship between CMP process performance, such as material removal rate (MRR) and data acquired from wireless vibration sensors. Subsequently, a non-linear sequential Bayesian analysis is integrated with decision theoretic concepts for detection of CMP process end-point for blanket copper wafers. Using this approach, CMP polishing end-point was detected within a 5% error rate.Next, a non-parametric Bayesian analytical approach is utilized to capture the inherently complex, non-Gaussian, and non-stationary sensor signal patterns observed in CMP process. An evolutionary clustering analysis, called Recurrent Nested Dirichlet Process (RNDP) approach is developed for monitoring CMP process changes using MEMS vibration signals. Using this novel signal analysis approach, process drifts are detected within 20 milliseconds and is assessed to be 3-7 times faster than traditional SPC charts. This is very beneficial to the industry from an application standpoint, because, wafer yield losses will be mitigated to a great extent, if the onset of CMP process drifts can be detected timely and accurately.Lastly, a non-parametric Bayesian modeling approach, termed Dirichlet Process (DP) is combined with a multi-level hierarchical information fusion technique for monitoring of surface finish in UPM process. Using this approach, signal patterns from six different sensors (three axis vibration and force) are integrated based on information fusion theory. It was observed that using experimental UPM sensor data that process decisions based on the multiple sensor information fusion approach were 15%-30% more accurate than the decisions from individual sensors. This will enable more accurate and reliable estimation of process conditions in ultra-precision manufacturing applications

Laplacian Mixture Modeling for Network Analysis and Unsupervised Learning on Graphs

Laplacian mixture models identify overlapping regions of influence in unlabeled graph and network data in a scalable and computationally efficient way, yielding useful low-dimensional representations. By combining Laplacian eigenspace and finite mixture modeling methods, they provide probabilistic or fuzzy dimensionality reductions or domain decompositions for a variety of input data types, including mixture distributions, feature vectors, and graphs or networks. Provable optimal recovery using the algorithm is analytically shown for a nontrivial class of cluster graphs. Heuristic approximations for scalable high-performance implementations are described and empirically tested. Connections to PageRank and community detection in network analysis demonstrate the wide applicability of this approach. The origins of fuzzy spectral methods, beginning with generalized heat or diffusion equations in physics, are reviewed and summarized. Comparisons to other dimensionality reduction and clustering methods for challenging unsupervised machine learning problems are also discussed.Comment: 13 figures, 35 reference

Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

An efficient and versatile approach to trust and reputation using hierarchical Bayesian modelling

In many dynamic open systems, autonomous agents must interact with one another to achieve their goals. Such agents may be self-interested and, when trusted to perform an action, may betray that trust by not performing the action as required. Due to the scale and dynamism of these systems, agents will often need to interact with other agents with which they have little or no past experience. Each agent must therefore be capable of assessing and identifying reliable interaction partners, even if it has no personal experience with them. To this end, we present HABIT, a Hierarchical And Bayesian Inferred Trust model for assessing how much an agent should trust its peers based on direct and third party information. This model is robust in environments in which third party information is malicious, noisy, or otherwise inaccurate. Although existing approaches claim to achieve this, most rely on heuristics with little theoretical foundation. In contrast, HABIT is based exclusively on principled statistical techniques: it can cope with multiple discrete or continuous aspects of trustee behaviour; it does not restrict agents to using a single shared representation of behaviour; it can improve assessment by using any observed correlation between the behaviour of similar trustees or information sources; and it provides a pragmatic solution to the whitewasher problem (in which unreliable agents assume a new identity to avoid bad reputation). In this paper, we describe the theoretical aspects of HABIT, and present experimental results that demonstrate its ability to predict agent behaviour in both a simulated environment, and one based on data from a real-world webserver domain. In particular, these experiments show that HABIT can predict trustee performance based on multiple representations of behaviour, and is up to twice as accurate as BLADE, an existing state-of-the-art trust model that is both statistically principled and has been previously shown to outperform a number of other probabilistic trust models

A framework for clustering and adaptive topic tracking on evolving text and social media data streams.

Recent advances and widespread usage of online web services and social media platforms, coupled with ubiquitous low cost devices, mobile technologies, and increasing capacity of lower cost storage, has led to a proliferation of Big data, ranging from, news, e-commerce clickstreams, and online business transactions to continuous event logs and social media expressions. These large amounts of online data, often referred to as data streams, because they get generated at extremely high throughputs or velocity, can make conventional and classical data analytics methodologies obsolete. For these reasons, the issues of management and analysis of data streams have been researched extensively in recent years. The special case of social media Big Data brings additional challenges, particularly because of the unstructured nature of the data, specifically free text. One classical approach to mine text data has been Topic Modeling. Topic Models are statistical models that can be used for discovering the abstract ``topics\u27\u27 that may occur in a corpus of documents. Topic models have emerged as a powerful technique in machine learning and data science, providing a great balance between simplicity and complexity. They also provide sophisticated insight without the need for real natural language understanding. However they have not been designed to cope with the type of text data that is abundant on social media platforms, but rather for traditional medium size corpora consisting of longer documents, adhering to a specific language and typically spanning a stable set of topics. Unlike traditional document corpora, social media messages tend to be very short, sparse, noisy, and do not adhere to a standard vocabulary, linguistic patterns, or stable topic distributions. They are also generated at high velocity that impose high demands on topic modeling; and their evolving or dynamic nature, makes any set of results from topic modeling quickly become stale in the face of changes in the textual content and topics discussed within social media streams. In this dissertation, we propose an integrated topic modeling framework built on top of an existing stream-clustering framework called Stream-Dashboard, which can extract, isolate, and track topics over any given time period. In this new framework, Stream Dashboard first clusters the data stream points into homogeneous groups. Then data from each group is ushered to the topic modeling framework which extracts finer topics from the group. The proposed framework tracks the evolution of the clusters over time to detect milestones corresponding to changes in topic evolution, and to trigger an adaptation of the learned groups and topics at each milestone. The proposed approach to topic modeling is different from a generic Topic Modeling approach because it works in a compartmentalized fashion, where the input document stream is split into distinct compartments, and Topic Modeling is applied on each compartment separately. Furthermore, we propose extensions to existing topic modeling and stream clustering methods, including: an adaptive query reformulation approach to help focus on the topic discovery with time; a topic modeling extension with adaptive hyper-parameter and with infinite vocabulary; an adaptive stream clustering algorithm incorporating the automated estimation of dynamic, cluster-specific temporal scales for adaptive forgetting to help facilitate clustering in a fast evolving data stream. Our experimental results show that the proposed adaptive forgetting clustering algorithm can mine better quality clusters; that our proposed compartmentalized framework is able to mine topics of better quality compared to competitive baselines; and that the proposed framework can automatically adapt to focus on changing topics using the proposed query reformulation strategy