Assessing the Impact of Game Day Schedule and Opponents on Travel Patterns and Route Choice using Big Data Analytics

The transportation system is crucial for transferring people and goods from point A to point B. However, its reliability can be decreased by unanticipated congestion resulting from planned special events. For example, sporting events collect large crowds of people at specific venues on game days and disrupt normal traffic patterns. The goal of this study was to understand issues related to road traffic management during major sporting events by using widely available INRIX data to compare travel patterns and behaviors on game days against those on normal days. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the impact of all Nebraska Cornhuskers football games over five years on traffic congestion on five major routes in Nebraska. We attempted to identify hotspots, the unusually high-risk zones in a spatiotemporal space containing traffic congestion that occur on almost all game days. For hotspot detection, we utilized a method called Multi-EigenSpot, which is able to detect multiple hotspots in a spatiotemporal space. With this algorithm, we were able to detect traffic hotspot clusters on the five chosen routes in Nebraska. After detecting the hotspots, we identified the factors affecting the sizes of hotspots and other parameters. The start time of the game and the Cornhuskers’ opponent for a given game are two important factors affecting the number of people coming to Lincoln, Nebraska, on game days. Finally, the Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach was applied to forecast the start times and locations of hotspot clusters in 2018 with a weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) of 13.8%

An Online Decision-Theoretic Pipeline for Responder Dispatch

The problem of dispatching emergency responders to service traffic accidents, fire, distress calls and crimes plagues urban areas across the globe. While such problems have been extensively looked at, most approaches are offline. Such methodologies fail to capture the dynamically changing environments under which critical emergency response occurs, and therefore, fail to be implemented in practice. Any holistic approach towards creating a pipeline for effective emergency response must also look at other challenges that it subsumes - predicting when and where incidents happen and understanding the changing environmental dynamics. We describe a system that collectively deals with all these problems in an online manner, meaning that the models get updated with streaming data sources. We highlight why such an approach is crucial to the effectiveness of emergency response, and present an algorithmic framework that can compute promising actions for a given decision-theoretic model for responder dispatch. We argue that carefully crafted heuristic measures can balance the trade-off between computational time and the quality of solutions achieved and highlight why such an approach is more scalable and tractable than traditional approaches. We also present an online mechanism for incident prediction, as well as an approach based on recurrent neural networks for learning and predicting environmental features that affect responder dispatch. We compare our methodology with prior state-of-the-art and existing dispatch strategies in the field, which show that our approach results in a reduction in response time with a drastic reduction in computational time.Comment: Appeared in ICCPS 201

Integrated Approach for Diversion Route Performance Management during Incidents

Non-recurrent congestion is one of the critical sources of congestion on the highway. In particular, traffic incidents create congestion in unexpected times and places that travelers do not prepare for. During incidents on freeways, route diversion has been proven to be a useful tactic to mitigate non-recurrent congestion. However, the capacity constraints created by the signals on the alternative routes put limits on the diversion process since the typical time-of-day signal control cannot handle the sudden increase in the traffic on the arterials due to diversion. Thus, there is a need for proactive strategies for the management of the diversion routes performance and for coordinated freeway and arterial (CFA) operation during incidents on the freeway. Proactive strategies provide better opportunities for both the agency and the traveler to make and implement decisions to improve performance. This dissertation develops a methodology for the performance management of diversion routes through integrating freeway and arterials operation during incidents on the freeway. The methodology includes the identification of potential diversion routes for freeway incidents and the generation and implementation of special signal plans under different incident and traffic conditions. The study utilizes machine learning, data analytics, multi-resolution modeling, and multi-objective optimization for this purpose. A data analytic approach based on the long short term memory (LSTM) deep neural network method is used to predict the utilized alternative routes dynamically using incident attributes and traffic status on the freeway and travel time on both the freeway and alternative routes during the incident. Then, a combination of clustering analysis, multi- resolution modeling (MRM), and multi-objective optimization techniques are used to develop and activate special signal plans on the identified alternative routes. The developed methods use data from different sources, including connected vehicle (CV) data and high- resolution controller (HRC) data for congestion patterns identification at the critical intersections on the alternative routes and signal plans generation. The results indicate that implementing signal timing plans to better accommodate the diverted traffic can improve the performance of the diverted traffic without significantly deteriorating other movements\u27 performance at the intersection. The findings show the importance of using data from emerging sources in developing plans to improve the performance of the diversion routes and ensure CFA operation with higher effectiveness

Arterial incident duration prediction using a bi-level framework of extreme gradient-tree boosting

Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting the accident duration on arterial road networks in Sydney, based on operational requirements of incident clearance target which is less than 45 minutes. Using incident baseline information, we first deploy a classification method using various ensemble tree models in order to predict whether a new incident will be cleared in less than 45min or not. If the incident was classified as short-term, then various regression models are developed for predicting the actual incident duration in minutes by incorporating various traffic flow features. After outlier removal and intensive model hyper-parameter tuning through randomized search and cross-validation, we show that the extreme gradient boost approach outperformed all models, including the gradient-boosted decision-trees by almost 53%. Finally, we perform a feature importance evaluation for incident duration prediction and show that the best prediction results are obtained when leveraging the real-time traffic flow in vicinity road sections to the reported accident location

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Applications Development and Evaluation for Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) seamlessly integrate computation, networking and physical devices. A Connected and Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) system in which each vehicle can wirelessly communicate and share data with other vehicles or infrastructures (e.g., traffic signal, roadside unit), requires a Transportation Cyber-Physical System (TCPS) for improving safety and mobility, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, a typical TCPS with a centralized computing service cannot support real-time CAV applications due to the often unpredictable network latency, high data loss rate and expensive communication bandwidth, especially in a mobile network, such as a CAV environment. Edge computing, a new concept for the CPS, distributes the resources for communication, computation, control, and storage at different edges of the systems. TCPS with edge computing strategy forms an edge-centric TCPS. This edge-centric TCPS system can reduce data loss and data delivery delay, and fulfill the high bandwidth requirements. Within the edge-centric TCPS, Vehicle-to-X (V2X) communication, along with the in-vehicle sensors, provides a 360-degree view for CAVs that enables autonomous vehicles’ operation beyond the sensor range. The addition of wireless connectivity would improve the operational efficiency of CAVs by providing real-time roadway information, such as traffic signal phasing and timing information, downstream traffic incident alerts, and predicting future traffic queue information. In addition, temporal variation of roadway traffic can be captured by sharing Basic Safety Messages (BSMs) from each vehicle through the communication between vehicles as well as with roadside infrastructures (e.g., traffic signal, roadside unit) and traffic management centers. In the early days of CAVs, data will be collected only from a limited number of CAVs due to a low CAV penetration rate and not from other non-connected vehicles. This will result in noise in the traffic data because of low penetration rate of CAVs. This lack of data combined with the data loss rate in the wireless CAV environment makes it challenging to predict traffic behavior, which is dynamic over time. To address this challenge, it is important to develop and evaluate a machine learning technique to capture stochastic variation in traffic patterns over time. This dissertation focuses on the development and evaluation of various connected and autonomous vehicles applications in an edge-centric TCPS. It includes adaptive queue prediction, traffic data prediction, dynamic routing and Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) applications. An adaptive queue prediction algorithm is described in Chapter 2 for predicting real-time traffic queue status in an edge-centric TCPS. Chapter 3 presents noise reduction models to reduce the noise from the traffic data generated from the BSMs at different penetration of CAVs and evaluate the performance of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) prediction model for predicting traffic data using the resulting filtered data set. The development and evaluation of a dynamic routing application in a CV environment is detailed in Chapter 4 to reduce incident recovery time and increase safety on a freeway. The development of an evaluation framework is detailed in Chapter 5 to evaluate car-following models for CACC controller design in terms of vehicle dynamics and string stability to ensure user acceptance is detailed in Chapter 5. Innovative methods presented in this dissertation were proven to be providing positive improvements in transportation mobility. These research will lead to the real-world deployment of these applications in an edge-centric TCPS as the dissertation focuses on the edge-centric TCPS deployment strategy. In addition, as multiple CAV applications as presented in this dissertation can be supported simultaneously by the same TCPS, public investments will only include infrastructure investments, such as investments in roadside infrastructure and back-end computing infrastructure. These connected and autonomous vehicle applications can potentially provide significant economic benefits compared to its cost