1,002 research outputs found
Flood dynamics derived from video remote sensing
Flooding is by far the most pervasive natural hazard, with the human impacts of floods expected to worsen in the coming decades due to climate change. Hydraulic models are a key tool for understanding flood dynamics and play a pivotal role in unravelling the processes that occur during a flood event, including inundation flow patterns and velocities. In the realm of river basin dynamics, video remote sensing is emerging as a transformative tool that can offer insights into flow dynamics and thus, together with other remotely sensed data, has the potential to be deployed to estimate discharge. Moreover, the integration of video remote sensing data with hydraulic models offers a pivotal opportunity to enhance the predictive capacity of these models.
Hydraulic models are traditionally built with accurate terrain, flow and bathymetric data and are often calibrated and validated using observed data to obtain meaningful and actionable model predictions. Data for accurately calibrating and validating hydraulic models are not always available, leaving the assessment of the predictive capabilities of some models deployed in flood risk management in question. Recent advances in remote sensing have heralded the availability of vast video datasets of high resolution. The parallel evolution of computing capabilities, coupled with advancements in artificial intelligence are enabling the processing of data at unprecedented scales and complexities, allowing us to glean meaningful insights into datasets that can be integrated with hydraulic models. The aims of the research presented in this thesis were twofold. The first aim was to evaluate and explore the potential applications of video from air- and space-borne platforms to comprehensively calibrate and validate two-dimensional hydraulic models. The second aim was to estimate river discharge using satellite video combined with high resolution topographic data. In the first of three empirical chapters, non-intrusive image velocimetry techniques were employed to estimate river surface velocities in a rural catchment. For the first time, a 2D hydraulicvmodel was fully calibrated and validated using velocities derived from Unpiloted Aerial Vehicle (UAV) image velocimetry approaches. This highlighted the value of these data in mitigating the limitations associated with traditional data sources used in parameterizing two-dimensional hydraulic models. This finding inspired the subsequent chapter where river surface velocities, derived using Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV), and flood extents, derived using deep neural network-based segmentation, were extracted from satellite video and used to rigorously assess the skill of a two-dimensional hydraulic model. Harnessing the ability of deep neural networks to learn complex features and deliver accurate and contextually informed flood segmentation, the potential value of satellite video for validating two dimensional hydraulic model simulations is exhibited. In the final empirical chapter, the convergence of satellite video imagery and high-resolution topographical data bridges the gap between visual observations and quantitative measurements by enabling the direct extraction of velocities from video imagery, which is used to estimate river discharge. Overall, this thesis demonstrates the significant potential of emerging video-based remote sensing datasets and offers approaches for integrating these data into hydraulic modelling and discharge estimation practice. The incorporation of LSPIV techniques into flood modelling workflows signifies a methodological progression, especially in areas lacking robust data collection infrastructure. Satellite video remote sensing heralds a major step forward in our ability to observe river dynamics in real time, with potentially significant implications in the domain of flood modelling science
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Synaptic plasticity and memory addressing in biological and artificial neural networks
Biological brains are composed of neurons, interconnected by synapses to create large complex networks. Learning and memory occur, in large part, due to synaptic plasticity -- modifications in the efficacy of information transmission through these synaptic connections. Artificial neural networks model these with neural "units" which communicate through synaptic weights. Models of learning and memory propose synaptic plasticity rules that describe and predict the weight modifications. An equally important but under-evaluated question is the selection of \textit{which} synapses should be updated in response to a memory event. In this work, we attempt to separate the questions of synaptic plasticity from that of memory addressing.
Chapter 1 provides an overview of the problem of memory addressing and a summary of the solutions that have been considered in computational neuroscience and artificial intelligence, as well as those that may exist in biology. Chapter 2 presents in detail a solution to memory addressing and synaptic plasticity in the context of familiarity detection, suggesting strong feedforward weights and anti-Hebbian plasticity as the respective mechanisms. Chapter 3 proposes a model of recall, with storage performed by addressing through local third factors and neo-Hebbian plasticity, and retrieval by content-based addressing. In Chapter 4, we consider the problem of concurrent memory consolidation and memorization. Both storage and retrieval are performed by content-based addressing, but the plasticity rule itself is implemented by gradient descent, modulated according to whether an item should be stored in a distributed manner or memorized verbatim. However, the classical method for computing gradients in recurrent neural networks, backpropagation through time, is generally considered unbiological. In Chapter 5 we suggest a more realistic implementation through an approximation of recurrent backpropagation.
Taken together, these results propose a number of potential mechanisms for memory storage and retrieval, each of which separates the mechanism of synaptic updating -- plasticity -- from that of synapse selection -- addressing. Explicit studies of memory addressing may find applications not only in artificial intelligence but also in biology. In artificial networks, for example, selectively updating memories in large language models can help improve user privacy and security. In biological ones, understanding memory addressing can help with health outcomes and treating memory-based illnesses such as Alzheimers or PTSD
Advances in machine learning algorithms for financial risk management
In this thesis, three novel machine learning techniques are introduced to address distinct
yet interrelated challenges involved in financial risk management tasks. These approaches
collectively offer a comprehensive strategy, beginning with the precise classification of credit
risks, advancing through the nuanced forecasting of financial asset volatility, and ending
with the strategic optimisation of financial asset portfolios.
Firstly, a Hybrid Dual-Resampling and Cost-Sensitive technique has been proposed to combat the prevalent issue of class imbalance in financial datasets, particularly in credit risk
assessment. The key process involves the creation of heuristically balanced datasets to effectively address the problem. It uses a resampling technique based on Gaussian mixture
modelling to generate a synthetic minority class from the minority class data and concurrently uses k-means clustering on the majority class. Feature selection is then performed
using the Extra Tree Ensemble technique. Subsequently, a cost-sensitive logistic regression
model is then applied to predict the probability of default using the heuristically balanced
datasets. The results underscore the effectiveness of our proposed technique, with superior
performance observed in comparison to other imbalanced preprocessing approaches. This
advancement in credit risk classification lays a solid foundation for understanding individual
financial behaviours, a crucial first step in the broader context of financial risk management.
Building on this foundation, the thesis then explores the forecasting of financial asset volatility, a critical aspect of understanding market dynamics. A novel model that combines a
Triple Discriminator Generative Adversarial Network with a continuous wavelet transform
is proposed. The proposed model has the ability to decompose volatility time series into
signal-like and noise-like frequency components, to allow the separate detection and monitoring of non-stationary volatility data. The network comprises of a wavelet transform
component consisting of continuous wavelet transforms and inverse wavelet transform components, an auto-encoder component made up of encoder and decoder networks, and a
Generative Adversarial Network consisting of triple Discriminator and Generator networks.
The proposed Generative Adversarial Network employs an ensemble of unsupervised loss derived from the Generative Adversarial Network component during training, supervised
loss and reconstruction loss as part of its framework. Data from nine financial assets are
employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. This approach not only
enhances our understanding of market fluctuations but also bridges the gap between individual credit risk assessment and macro-level market analysis.
Finally the thesis ends with a novel proposal of a novel technique or Portfolio optimisation. This involves the use of a model-free reinforcement learning strategy for portfolio
optimisation using historical Low, High, and Close prices of assets as input with weights of
assets as output. A deep Capsules Network is employed to simulate the investment strategy, which involves the reallocation of the different assets to maximise the expected return
on investment based on deep reinforcement learning. To provide more learning stability in
an online training process, a Markov Differential Sharpe Ratio reward function has been
proposed as the reinforcement learning objective function. Additionally, a Multi-Memory
Weight Reservoir has also been introduced to facilitate the learning process and optimisation of computed asset weights, helping to sequentially re-balance the portfolio throughout
a specified trading period. The use of the insights gained from volatility forecasting into
this strategy shows the interconnected nature of the financial markets. Comparative experiments with other models demonstrated that our proposed technique is capable of achieving
superior results based on risk-adjusted reward performance measures.
In a nut-shell, this thesis not only addresses individual challenges in financial risk management but it also incorporates them into a comprehensive framework; from enhancing the
accuracy of credit risk classification, through the improvement and understanding of market
volatility, to optimisation of investment strategies. These methodologies collectively show
the potential of the use of machine learning to improve financial risk management
Multidisciplinary perspectives on Artificial Intelligence and the law
This open access book presents an interdisciplinary, multi-authored, edited collection of chapters on Artificial Intelligence (‘AI’) and the Law. AI technology has come to play a central role in the modern data economy. Through a combination of increased computing power, the growing availability of data and the advancement of algorithms, AI has now become an umbrella term for some of the most transformational technological breakthroughs of this age. The importance of AI stems from both the opportunities that it offers and the challenges that it entails. While AI applications hold the promise of economic growth and efficiency gains, they also create significant risks and uncertainty. The potential and perils of AI have thus come to dominate modern discussions of technology and ethics – and although AI was initially allowed to largely develop without guidelines or rules, few would deny that the law is set to play a fundamental role in shaping the future of AI. As the debate over AI is far from over, the need for rigorous analysis has never been greater. This book thus brings together contributors from different fields and backgrounds to explore how the law might provide answers to some of the most pressing questions raised by AI. An outcome of the Católica Research Centre for the Future of Law and its interdisciplinary working group on Law and Artificial Intelligence, it includes contributions by leading scholars in the fields of technology, ethics and the law.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
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Interpretable Machine Learning Architectures for Efficient Signal Detection with Applications to Gravitational Wave Astronomy
Deep learning has seen rapid evolution in the past decade, accomplishing tasks that were previously unimaginable. At the same time, researchers strive to better understand and interpret the underlying mechanisms of the deep models, which are often justifiably regarded as "black boxes". Overcoming this deficiency will not only serve to suggest better learning architectures and training methods, but also extend deep learning to scenarios where interpretability is key to the application. One such scenario is signal detection and estimation, with gravitational wave detection as a specific example, where classic methods are often preferred for their interpretability. Nonetheless, while classic statistical detection methods such as matched filtering excel in their simplicity and intuitiveness, they can be suboptimal in terms of both accuracy and computational efficiency. Therefore, it is appealing to have methods that achieve ``the best of both worlds'', namely enjoying simultaneously excellent performance and interpretability.
In this thesis, we aim to bridge this gap between modern deep learning and classic statistical detection, by revisiting the signal detection problem from a new perspective. First, to address the perceived distinction in interpretability between classic matched filtering and deep learning, we state the intrinsic connections between the two families of methods, and identify how trainable networks can address the structural limitations of matched filtering. Based on these ideas, we propose two trainable architectures that are constructed based on matched filtering, but with learnable templates and adaptivity to unknown noise distributions, and therefore higher detection accuracy. We next turn our attention toward improving the computational efficiency of detection, where we aim to design architectures that leverage structures within the problem for efficiency gains. By leveraging the statistical structure of class imbalance, we integrate hierarchical detection into trainable networks, and use a novel loss function which explicitly encodes both detection accuracy and efficiency. Furthermore, by leveraging the geometric structure of the signal set, we consider using signal space optimization as an alternative computational primitive for detection, which is intuitively more efficient than covering with a template bank. We theoretical prove the efficiency gain by analyzing Riemannian gradient descent on the signal manifold, which reveals an exponential improvement in efficiency over matched filtering. We also propose a practical trainable architecture for template optimization, which makes use of signal embedding and kernel interpolation.
We demonstrate the performance of all proposed architectures on the task of gravitational wave detection in astrophysics, where matched filtering is the current method of choice. The architectures are also widely applicable to general signal or pattern detection tasks, which we exemplify with the handwritten digit recognition task using the template optimization architecture. Together, we hope the this work useful to scientists and engineers seeking machine learning architectures with high performance and interpretability, and contribute to our understanding of deep learning as a whole
Data-efficient neural network training with dataset condensation
The state of the art in many data driven fields including computer vision and natural language processing typically relies on training larger models on bigger data. It is reported by OpenAI that the computational cost to achieve the state of the art doubles every 3.4 months in the deep learning era. In contrast, the GPU computation power doubles every 21.4 months, which is significantly slower. Thus, advancing deep learning performance by consuming more hardware resources is not sustainable. How to reduce the training cost while preserving the generalization performance is a long standing goal in machine learning. This thesis investigates a largely under-explored while promising solution - dataset condensation which aims to condense a large training set into a small set of informative synthetic samples for training deep models and achieve close performance to models trained on the original dataset. In this thesis, we investigate how to condense image datasets for classification tasks. We propose three methods for image dataset condensation. Our methods can be applied to condense other kinds of datasets for different learning tasks, such as text data, graph data and medical images, and we discuss it in Section 6.1.
First, we propose a principled method that formulates the goal of learning a small synthetic set as a gradient matching problem with respect to the gradients of deep neural network weights that are trained on the original and synthetic data. A new gradient/weight matching loss is designed for robust matching of different neural architectures. We evaluate its performance in several image classification benchmarks and explore the usage of our method in continual learning and neural architecture search.
In the second work, we propose to further improve the data-efficiency of training neural networks with synthetic data by enabling effective data augmentation. Specifically, we propose Differentiable Siamese Augmentation and learn better synthetic data that can be used more effectively with data augmentation and thus achieve better performance when training networks with data augmentation. Experiments verify that the proposed method obtains substantial gains over the state of the art.
While training deep models on the small set of condensed images can be extremely fast, their synthesis remains computationally expensive due to the complex bi-level optimization. Finally, we propose a simple yet effective method that synthesizes condensed images by matching feature distributions of the synthetic and original training images when being embedded by randomly sampled deep networks. Thanks to its efficiency, we apply our method to more realistic and larger datasets with sophisticated neural architectures and obtain a significant performance boost.
In summary, this manuscript presents several important contributions that improve data efficiency of training deep neural networks by condensing large datasets into significantly smaller synthetic ones. The innovations focus on principled methods based on gradient matching, higher data-efficiency with differentiable Siamese augmentation, and extremely simple and fast distribution matching without bilevel optimization. The proposed methods are evaluated on popular image classification datasets, namely MNIST, FashionMNIST, SVHN, CIFAR10/100 and TinyImageNet. The code is available at https://github.com/VICO-UoE/DatasetCondensation
Medical Image Analysis using Deep Relational Learning
In the past ten years, with the help of deep learning, especially the rapid
development of deep neural networks, medical image analysis has made remarkable
progress. However, how to effectively use the relational information between
various tissues or organs in medical images is still a very challenging
problem, and it has not been fully studied. In this thesis, we propose two
novel solutions to this problem based on deep relational learning. First, we
propose a context-aware fully convolutional network that effectively models
implicit relation information between features to perform medical image
segmentation. The network achieves the state-of-the-art segmentation results on
the Multi Modal Brain Tumor Segmentation 2017 (BraTS2017) and Multi Modal Brain
Tumor Segmentation 2018 (BraTS2018) data sets. Subsequently, we propose a new
hierarchical homography estimation network to achieve accurate medical image
mosaicing by learning the explicit spatial relationship between adjacent
frames. We use the UCL Fetoscopy Placenta dataset to conduct experiments and
our hierarchical homography estimation network outperforms the other
state-of-the-art mosaicing methods while generating robust and meaningful
mosaicing result on unseen frames.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2007.0778
NovelCraft: A Dataset for Novelty Detection and Discovery in Open Worlds
In order for artificial agents to successfully perform tasks in changing
environments, they must be able to both detect and adapt to novelty. However,
visual novelty detection research often only evaluates on repurposed datasets
such as CIFAR-10 originally intended for object classification, where images
focus on one distinct, well-centered object. New benchmarks are needed to
represent the challenges of navigating the complex scenes of an open world. Our
new NovelCraft dataset contains multimodal episodic data of the images and
symbolic world-states seen by an agent completing a pogo stick assembly task
within a modified Minecraft environment. In some episodes, we insert novel
objects of varying size within the complex 3D scene that may impact gameplay.
Our visual novelty detection benchmark finds that methods that rank best on
popular area-under-the-curve metrics may be outperformed by simpler
alternatives when controlling false positives matters most. Further multimodal
novelty detection experiments suggest that methods that fuse both visual and
symbolic information can improve time until detection as well as overall
discrimination. Finally, our evaluation of recent generalized category
discovery methods suggests that adapting to new imbalanced categories in
complex scenes remains an exciting open problem.Comment: Published in Transactions on Machine Learning Research (03/2023
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