1,002 research outputs found

    Flood dynamics derived from video remote sensing

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    Flooding is by far the most pervasive natural hazard, with the human impacts of floods expected to worsen in the coming decades due to climate change. Hydraulic models are a key tool for understanding flood dynamics and play a pivotal role in unravelling the processes that occur during a flood event, including inundation flow patterns and velocities. In the realm of river basin dynamics, video remote sensing is emerging as a transformative tool that can offer insights into flow dynamics and thus, together with other remotely sensed data, has the potential to be deployed to estimate discharge. Moreover, the integration of video remote sensing data with hydraulic models offers a pivotal opportunity to enhance the predictive capacity of these models. Hydraulic models are traditionally built with accurate terrain, flow and bathymetric data and are often calibrated and validated using observed data to obtain meaningful and actionable model predictions. Data for accurately calibrating and validating hydraulic models are not always available, leaving the assessment of the predictive capabilities of some models deployed in flood risk management in question. Recent advances in remote sensing have heralded the availability of vast video datasets of high resolution. The parallel evolution of computing capabilities, coupled with advancements in artificial intelligence are enabling the processing of data at unprecedented scales and complexities, allowing us to glean meaningful insights into datasets that can be integrated with hydraulic models. The aims of the research presented in this thesis were twofold. The first aim was to evaluate and explore the potential applications of video from air- and space-borne platforms to comprehensively calibrate and validate two-dimensional hydraulic models. The second aim was to estimate river discharge using satellite video combined with high resolution topographic data. In the first of three empirical chapters, non-intrusive image velocimetry techniques were employed to estimate river surface velocities in a rural catchment. For the first time, a 2D hydraulicvmodel was fully calibrated and validated using velocities derived from Unpiloted Aerial Vehicle (UAV) image velocimetry approaches. This highlighted the value of these data in mitigating the limitations associated with traditional data sources used in parameterizing two-dimensional hydraulic models. This finding inspired the subsequent chapter where river surface velocities, derived using Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV), and flood extents, derived using deep neural network-based segmentation, were extracted from satellite video and used to rigorously assess the skill of a two-dimensional hydraulic model. Harnessing the ability of deep neural networks to learn complex features and deliver accurate and contextually informed flood segmentation, the potential value of satellite video for validating two dimensional hydraulic model simulations is exhibited. In the final empirical chapter, the convergence of satellite video imagery and high-resolution topographical data bridges the gap between visual observations and quantitative measurements by enabling the direct extraction of velocities from video imagery, which is used to estimate river discharge. Overall, this thesis demonstrates the significant potential of emerging video-based remote sensing datasets and offers approaches for integrating these data into hydraulic modelling and discharge estimation practice. The incorporation of LSPIV techniques into flood modelling workflows signifies a methodological progression, especially in areas lacking robust data collection infrastructure. Satellite video remote sensing heralds a major step forward in our ability to observe river dynamics in real time, with potentially significant implications in the domain of flood modelling science

    Advances in machine learning algorithms for financial risk management

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    In this thesis, three novel machine learning techniques are introduced to address distinct yet interrelated challenges involved in financial risk management tasks. These approaches collectively offer a comprehensive strategy, beginning with the precise classification of credit risks, advancing through the nuanced forecasting of financial asset volatility, and ending with the strategic optimisation of financial asset portfolios. Firstly, a Hybrid Dual-Resampling and Cost-Sensitive technique has been proposed to combat the prevalent issue of class imbalance in financial datasets, particularly in credit risk assessment. The key process involves the creation of heuristically balanced datasets to effectively address the problem. It uses a resampling technique based on Gaussian mixture modelling to generate a synthetic minority class from the minority class data and concurrently uses k-means clustering on the majority class. Feature selection is then performed using the Extra Tree Ensemble technique. Subsequently, a cost-sensitive logistic regression model is then applied to predict the probability of default using the heuristically balanced datasets. The results underscore the effectiveness of our proposed technique, with superior performance observed in comparison to other imbalanced preprocessing approaches. This advancement in credit risk classification lays a solid foundation for understanding individual financial behaviours, a crucial first step in the broader context of financial risk management. Building on this foundation, the thesis then explores the forecasting of financial asset volatility, a critical aspect of understanding market dynamics. A novel model that combines a Triple Discriminator Generative Adversarial Network with a continuous wavelet transform is proposed. The proposed model has the ability to decompose volatility time series into signal-like and noise-like frequency components, to allow the separate detection and monitoring of non-stationary volatility data. The network comprises of a wavelet transform component consisting of continuous wavelet transforms and inverse wavelet transform components, an auto-encoder component made up of encoder and decoder networks, and a Generative Adversarial Network consisting of triple Discriminator and Generator networks. The proposed Generative Adversarial Network employs an ensemble of unsupervised loss derived from the Generative Adversarial Network component during training, supervised loss and reconstruction loss as part of its framework. Data from nine financial assets are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. This approach not only enhances our understanding of market fluctuations but also bridges the gap between individual credit risk assessment and macro-level market analysis. Finally the thesis ends with a novel proposal of a novel technique or Portfolio optimisation. This involves the use of a model-free reinforcement learning strategy for portfolio optimisation using historical Low, High, and Close prices of assets as input with weights of assets as output. A deep Capsules Network is employed to simulate the investment strategy, which involves the reallocation of the different assets to maximise the expected return on investment based on deep reinforcement learning. To provide more learning stability in an online training process, a Markov Differential Sharpe Ratio reward function has been proposed as the reinforcement learning objective function. Additionally, a Multi-Memory Weight Reservoir has also been introduced to facilitate the learning process and optimisation of computed asset weights, helping to sequentially re-balance the portfolio throughout a specified trading period. The use of the insights gained from volatility forecasting into this strategy shows the interconnected nature of the financial markets. Comparative experiments with other models demonstrated that our proposed technique is capable of achieving superior results based on risk-adjusted reward performance measures. In a nut-shell, this thesis not only addresses individual challenges in financial risk management but it also incorporates them into a comprehensive framework; from enhancing the accuracy of credit risk classification, through the improvement and understanding of market volatility, to optimisation of investment strategies. These methodologies collectively show the potential of the use of machine learning to improve financial risk management

    Multidisciplinary perspectives on Artificial Intelligence and the law

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    This open access book presents an interdisciplinary, multi-authored, edited collection of chapters on Artificial Intelligence (‘AI’) and the Law. AI technology has come to play a central role in the modern data economy. Through a combination of increased computing power, the growing availability of data and the advancement of algorithms, AI has now become an umbrella term for some of the most transformational technological breakthroughs of this age. The importance of AI stems from both the opportunities that it offers and the challenges that it entails. While AI applications hold the promise of economic growth and efficiency gains, they also create significant risks and uncertainty. The potential and perils of AI have thus come to dominate modern discussions of technology and ethics – and although AI was initially allowed to largely develop without guidelines or rules, few would deny that the law is set to play a fundamental role in shaping the future of AI. As the debate over AI is far from over, the need for rigorous analysis has never been greater. This book thus brings together contributors from different fields and backgrounds to explore how the law might provide answers to some of the most pressing questions raised by AI. An outcome of the Católica Research Centre for the Future of Law and its interdisciplinary working group on Law and Artificial Intelligence, it includes contributions by leading scholars in the fields of technology, ethics and the law.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Data-efficient neural network training with dataset condensation

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    The state of the art in many data driven fields including computer vision and natural language processing typically relies on training larger models on bigger data. It is reported by OpenAI that the computational cost to achieve the state of the art doubles every 3.4 months in the deep learning era. In contrast, the GPU computation power doubles every 21.4 months, which is significantly slower. Thus, advancing deep learning performance by consuming more hardware resources is not sustainable. How to reduce the training cost while preserving the generalization performance is a long standing goal in machine learning. This thesis investigates a largely under-explored while promising solution - dataset condensation which aims to condense a large training set into a small set of informative synthetic samples for training deep models and achieve close performance to models trained on the original dataset. In this thesis, we investigate how to condense image datasets for classification tasks. We propose three methods for image dataset condensation. Our methods can be applied to condense other kinds of datasets for different learning tasks, such as text data, graph data and medical images, and we discuss it in Section 6.1. First, we propose a principled method that formulates the goal of learning a small synthetic set as a gradient matching problem with respect to the gradients of deep neural network weights that are trained on the original and synthetic data. A new gradient/weight matching loss is designed for robust matching of different neural architectures. We evaluate its performance in several image classification benchmarks and explore the usage of our method in continual learning and neural architecture search. In the second work, we propose to further improve the data-efficiency of training neural networks with synthetic data by enabling effective data augmentation. Specifically, we propose Differentiable Siamese Augmentation and learn better synthetic data that can be used more effectively with data augmentation and thus achieve better performance when training networks with data augmentation. Experiments verify that the proposed method obtains substantial gains over the state of the art. While training deep models on the small set of condensed images can be extremely fast, their synthesis remains computationally expensive due to the complex bi-level optimization. Finally, we propose a simple yet effective method that synthesizes condensed images by matching feature distributions of the synthetic and original training images when being embedded by randomly sampled deep networks. Thanks to its efficiency, we apply our method to more realistic and larger datasets with sophisticated neural architectures and obtain a significant performance boost. In summary, this manuscript presents several important contributions that improve data efficiency of training deep neural networks by condensing large datasets into significantly smaller synthetic ones. The innovations focus on principled methods based on gradient matching, higher data-efficiency with differentiable Siamese augmentation, and extremely simple and fast distribution matching without bilevel optimization. The proposed methods are evaluated on popular image classification datasets, namely MNIST, FashionMNIST, SVHN, CIFAR10/100 and TinyImageNet. The code is available at https://github.com/VICO-UoE/DatasetCondensation

    Medical Image Analysis using Deep Relational Learning

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    In the past ten years, with the help of deep learning, especially the rapid development of deep neural networks, medical image analysis has made remarkable progress. However, how to effectively use the relational information between various tissues or organs in medical images is still a very challenging problem, and it has not been fully studied. In this thesis, we propose two novel solutions to this problem based on deep relational learning. First, we propose a context-aware fully convolutional network that effectively models implicit relation information between features to perform medical image segmentation. The network achieves the state-of-the-art segmentation results on the Multi Modal Brain Tumor Segmentation 2017 (BraTS2017) and Multi Modal Brain Tumor Segmentation 2018 (BraTS2018) data sets. Subsequently, we propose a new hierarchical homography estimation network to achieve accurate medical image mosaicing by learning the explicit spatial relationship between adjacent frames. We use the UCL Fetoscopy Placenta dataset to conduct experiments and our hierarchical homography estimation network outperforms the other state-of-the-art mosaicing methods while generating robust and meaningful mosaicing result on unseen frames.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2007.0778

    NovelCraft: A Dataset for Novelty Detection and Discovery in Open Worlds

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    In order for artificial agents to successfully perform tasks in changing environments, they must be able to both detect and adapt to novelty. However, visual novelty detection research often only evaluates on repurposed datasets such as CIFAR-10 originally intended for object classification, where images focus on one distinct, well-centered object. New benchmarks are needed to represent the challenges of navigating the complex scenes of an open world. Our new NovelCraft dataset contains multimodal episodic data of the images and symbolic world-states seen by an agent completing a pogo stick assembly task within a modified Minecraft environment. In some episodes, we insert novel objects of varying size within the complex 3D scene that may impact gameplay. Our visual novelty detection benchmark finds that methods that rank best on popular area-under-the-curve metrics may be outperformed by simpler alternatives when controlling false positives matters most. Further multimodal novelty detection experiments suggest that methods that fuse both visual and symbolic information can improve time until detection as well as overall discrimination. Finally, our evaluation of recent generalized category discovery methods suggests that adapting to new imbalanced categories in complex scenes remains an exciting open problem.Comment: Published in Transactions on Machine Learning Research (03/2023
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