A Relational Hyperlink Analysis of an Online Social Movement

In this paper we propose relational hyperlink analysis (RHA) as a distinct approach for empirical social science research into hyperlink networks on the World Wide Web. We demonstrate this approach, which employs the ideas and techniques of social network analysis (in particular, exponential random graph modeling), in a study of the hyperlinking behaviors of Australian asylum advocacy groups. We show that compared with the commonly-used hyperlink counts regression approach, relational hyperlink analysis can lead to fundamentally different conclusions about the social processes underpinning hyperlinking behavior. In particular, in trying to understand why social ties are formed, counts regressions may over-estimate the role of actor attributes in the formation of hyperlinks when endogenous, purely structural network effects are not taken into account. Our analysis involves an innovative joint use of two software programs: VOSON, for the automated retrieval and processing of considerable quantities of hyperlink data, and LPNet, for the statistical modeling of social network data. Together, VOSON and LPNet enable new and unique research into social networks in the online world, and our paper highlights the importance of complementary research tools for social science research into the web

Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Antecedents of Citation Impact and Intention to Publish on Open Access Journals: A Case of Agricultural Research Institutes Tanzania

This study assessed the factors that contribute to intention to publish in open access journals among researchers in Tanzanian Agricultural Research Institutes. Five factors derived from the literature were used to predict intention to publish in Open Access Journals. These factors are: journal reputation, the speed of publishing, content relevance, visible advantage and citation impact. Data were collected from 121 researchers through a cross-section survey questionnaire. The findings revealed that journal reputation, visibility advantage and citation impact have significant effect on intention to publish in open access journals. Nonetheless, further analysis showed that the speed of publishing as well as content relevance have no significant influence on citation impact. This article articulates the basis for research institutions and practitioners to nurture open access publishing in order to address the dearth of empirical studies on open access journal publishing in Tanzania

Regrets, I\u27ve Had a Few: When Regretful Experiences Do (and Don\u27t) Compel Users to Leave Facebook

Previous work has explored regretful experiences on social media. In parallel, scholars have examined how people do not use social media. This paper aims to synthesize these two research areas and asks: Do regretful experiences on social media influence people to (consider) not using social media? How might this influence differ for different sorts of regretful experiences? We adopted a mixed methods approach, combining topic modeling, logistic regressions, and contingency analysis to analyze data from a web survey with a demographically representative sample of US internet users (n=515) focusing on their Facebook use. We found that experiences that arise because of users\u27 own actions influence actual deactivation of their Facebook account, while experiences that arise because of others\u27 actions lead to considerations of non-use. We discuss the implications of these findings for two theoretical areas of interest in HCI: individual agency in social media use and the networked dimensions of privacy

TiDeH: Time-Dependent Hawkes Process for Predicting Retweet Dynamics

Online social networking services allow their users to post content in the form of text, images or videos. The main mechanism driving content diffusion is the possibility for users to re-share the content posted by their social connections, which may then cascade across the system. A fundamental problem when studying information cascades is the possibility to develop sound mathematical models, whose parameters can be calibrated on empirical data, in order to predict the future course of a cascade after a window of observation. In this paper, we focus on Twitter and, in particular, on the temporal patterns of retweet activity for an original tweet. We model the system by Time-Dependent Hawkes process (TiDeH), which properly takes into account the circadian nature of the users and the aging of information. The input of the prediction model are observed retweet times and structural information about the underlying social network. We develop a procedure for parameter optimization and for predicting the future profiles of retweet activity at different time resolutions. We validate our methodology on a large corpus of Twitter data and demonstrate its systematic improvement over existing approaches in all the time regimes.Comment: The manuscript has been accepted in the 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM 2016

Post-Baccalaureate Wage Growth within Four Years of Graduation: The Effects of College Quality and College Major

This paper examines the impact of college quality and academic major on the earnings of a nationally representative sample of baccalaureate recipients. We extend previous work in this area by analyzing the magnitude of change in the influence of these factors at two points in the early career of these graduates. Our results demonstrate that, despite significant variation, graduates from higher quality colleges enjoy a greater rate of growth in earnings during their early career. We also show that growth in earnings varies significantly by the graduates’ major field of study. Wage growth for women and racial minorities is also examined