Event detection in location-based social networks

With the advent of social networks and the rise of mobile technologies, users have become ubiquitous sensors capable of monitoring various real-world events in a crowd-sourced manner. Location-based social networks have proven to be faster than traditional media channels in reporting and geo-locating breaking news, i.e. Osama Bin Laden’s death was first confirmed on Twitter even before the announcement from the communication department at the White House. However, the deluge of user-generated data on these networks requires intelligent systems capable of identifying and characterizing such events in a comprehensive manner. The data mining community coined the term, event detection , to refer to the task of uncovering emerging patterns in data streams . Nonetheless, most data mining techniques do not reproduce the underlying data generation process, hampering to self-adapt in fast-changing scenarios. Because of this, we propose a probabilistic machine learning approach to event detection which explicitly models the data generation process and enables reasoning about the discovered events. With the aim to set forth the differences between both approaches, we present two techniques for the problem of event detection in Twitter : a data mining technique called Tweet-SCAN and a machine learning technique called Warble. We assess and compare both techniques in a dataset of tweets geo-located in the city of Barcelona during its annual festivities. Last but not least, we present the algorithmic changes and data processing frameworks to scale up the proposed techniques to big data workloads.This work is partially supported by Obra Social “la Caixa”, by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under contract (TIN2015-65316), by the Severo Ochoa Program (SEV2015-0493), by SGR programs of the Catalan Government (2014-SGR-1051, 2014-SGR-118), Collectiveware (TIN2015-66863-C2-1-R) and BSC/UPC NVIDIA GPU Center of Excellence.We would also like to thank the reviewers for their constructive feedback.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Implications of probabilistic data modeling for rule mining

Mining association rules is an important technique for discovering meaningful patterns in transaction databases. In the current literature, the properties of algorithms to mine associations are discussed in great detail. In this paper we investigate properties of transaction data sets from a probabilistic point of view. We present a simple probabilistic framework for transaction data and its implementation using the R statistical computing environment. The framework can be used to simulate transaction data when no associations are present. We use such data to explore the ability to filter noise of confidence and lift, two popular interest measures used for rule mining. Based on the framework we develop the measure hyperlift and we compare this new measure to lift using simulated data and a real-world grocery database.Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematic

New probabilistic interest measures for association rules

Mining association rules is an important technique for discovering meaningful patterns in transaction databases. Many different measures of interestingness have been proposed for association rules. However, these measures fail to take the probabilistic properties of the mined data into account. In this paper, we start with presenting a simple probabilistic framework for transaction data which can be used to simulate transaction data when no associations are present. We use such data and a real-world database from a grocery outlet to explore the behavior of confidence and lift, two popular interest measures used for rule mining. The results show that confidence is systematically influenced by the frequency of the items in the left hand side of rules and that lift performs poorly to filter random noise in transaction data. Based on the probabilistic framework we develop two new interest measures, hyper-lift and hyper-confidence, which can be used to filter or order mined association rules. The new measures show significantly better performance than lift for applications where spurious rules are problematic

Off-Policy Evaluation of Probabilistic Identity Data in Lookalike Modeling

We evaluate the impact of probabilistically-constructed digital identity data collected from Sep. to Dec. 2017 (approx.), in the context of Lookalike-targeted campaigns. The backbone of this study is a large set of probabilistically-constructed "identities", represented as small bags of cookies and mobile ad identifiers with associated metadata, that are likely all owned by the same underlying user. The identity data allows to generate "identity-based", rather than "identifier-based", user models, giving a fuller picture of the interests of the users underlying the identifiers. We employ off-policy techniques to evaluate the potential of identity-powered lookalike models without incurring the risk of allowing untested models to direct large amounts of ad spend or the large cost of performing A/B tests. We add to historical work on off-policy evaluation by noting a significant type of "finite-sample bias" that occurs for studies combining modestly-sized datasets and evaluation metrics involving rare events (e.g., conversions). We illustrate this bias using a simulation study that later informs the handling of inverse propensity weights in our analyses on real data. We demonstrate significant lift in identity-powered lookalikes versus an identity-ignorant baseline: on average ~70% lift in conversion rate. This rises to factors of ~(4-32)x for identifiers having little data themselves, but that can be inferred to belong to users with substantial data to aggregate across identifiers. This implies that identity-powered user modeling is especially important in the context of identifiers having very short lifespans (i.e., frequently churned cookies). Our work motivates and informs the use of probabilistically-constructed identities in marketing. It also deepens the canon of examples in which off-policy learning has been employed to evaluate the complex systems of the internet economy.Comment: Accepted by WSDM 201