La actividad de búsquedas en Google anticipa los resultados electorales

Aquest treball de recerca pretén analitzar la utilitat d'ús de les estadístiques de cerca a Google a l'hora d'explicar i/o predir diferents esdeveniments. En aquest estudi proposem un model economètric de dades de panell que demostra que les estadístiques de cerca de Google tenen capacitat explicativa i predictiva sobre l'evolució de la intenció de vot en les eleccions espanyoles. La relació entre ambdues variables és significativa, positiva i amb un coeficient superior a la unitat; per tant, si les estadístiques de cerca de Google augmenten d’un punt, interpretarem que la intenció de vot augmentarà de més d'un 1% del cens electoral.This research aims to analyze the usefulness of Google searching activity to explaining and/or predicting different events. In this study we propose a panel data econometric model that shows that Google search statistics have explanatory and predictive capacity on the evolution of voting intentions in the Spanish elections. The relationship between votes and searches is significant, positive and has a coefficient greater than unity, so that if Google search statistics increase in 1 point, voting intention increases by more than 1% of the electorate.Este trabajo de investigación pretende analizar la utilidad de uso de las estadísticas de búsqueda en Google a la hora de explicar y/o predecir diferentes acontecimientos. En este estudio proponemos un modelo econométrico de datos de panel que demuestra que las estadísticas de búsqueda de Google tienen capacidad explicativa y predictiva sobre la evolución de la intención de voto en las elecciones españolas. La relación entre ambas variables es significativa, positiva y con un coeficiente superior a la unidad; por lo que si las estadísticas de búsqueda de Google aumentan en un punto interpretaremos que la intención de voto aumentará en más de un 1 % del censo electoral

Measuring Social Influence in Online Social Networks - Focus on Human Behavior Analytics

With the advent of online social networks (OSN) and their ever-expanding reach, researchers seek to determine a social media user’s social influence (SI) proficiency. Despite its exploding application across multiple domains, the research confronts unprecedented practical challenges due to a lack of systematic examination of human behavior characteristics that impart social influence. This work aims to give a methodical overview by conducting a targeted literature analysis to appraise the accuracy and usefulness of past publications. The finding suggests that first, it is necessary to incorporate behavior analytics into statistical measurement models. Second, there is a severe imbalance between the abundance of theoretical research and the scarcity of empirical work to underpin the collective psychological theories to macro-level predictions. Thirdly, it is crucial to incorporate human sentiments and emotions into any measure of SI, particularly as OSN has endowed everyone with the intrinsic ability to influence others. The paper also suggests the merits of three primary research horizons for future considerations

Supporting cooperation and coordination in open multi-agent systems

Cooperation and coordination between agents are fundamental processes for increasing aggregate and individual benefit in open Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). The increased ubiquity, size, and complexity of open MAS in the modern world has prompted significant research interest in the mechanisms that underlie cooperative and coordinated behaviour. In open MAS, in which agents join and leave freely, we can assume the following properties: (i) there are no centralised authorities, (ii) agent authority is uniform, (iii) agents may be heterogeneously owned and designed, and may consequently have con icting intentions and inconsistent capabilities, and (iv) agents are constrained in interactions by a complex connecting network topology. Developing mechanisms to support cooperative and coordinated behaviour that remain effective under these assumptions remains an open research problem. Two of the major mechanisms by which cooperative and coordinated behaviour can be achieved are (i) trust and reputation, and (ii) norms and conventions. Trust and reputation, which support cooperative and coordinated behaviour through notions of reciprocity, are effective in protecting agents from malicious or selfish individuals, but their capabilities can be affected by a lack of information about potential partners and the impact of the underlying network structure. Regarding conventions and norms, there are still a wide variety of open research problems, including: (i) manipulating which convention or norm a population adopts, (ii) how to exploit knowledge of the underlying network structure to improve mechanism efficacy, and (iii) how conventions might be manipulated in the middle and latter stages of their lifecycle, when they have become established and stable. In this thesis, we address these issues and propose a number of techniques and theoretical advancements that help ensure the robustness and efficiency of these mechanisms in the context of open MAS, and demonstrate new techniques for manipulating convention emergence in large, distributed populations. Specfically, we (i) show that gossiping of reputation information can mitigate the detrimental effects of incomplete information on trust and reputation and reduce the impact of network structure, (ii) propose a new model of conventions that accounts for limitations in existing theories, (iii) show how to manipulate convention emergence using small groups of agents inserted by interested parties, (iv) demonstrate how to learn which locations in a network have the greatest capacity to in uence which convention a population adopts, and (v) show how conventions can be manipulated in the middle and latter stages of the convention lifecycle

Leveraging social relevance : using social networks to enhance literature access and microblog search

L'objectif principal d'un système de recherche d'information est de sélectionner les documents pertinents qui répondent au besoin en information exprimé par l'utilisateur à travers une requête. Depuis les années 1970-1980, divers modèles théoriques ont été proposés dans ce sens pour représenter les documents et les requêtes d'une part et les apparier d'autre part, indépendamment de tout utilisateur. Plus récemment, l'arrivée du Web 2.0 ou le Web social a remis en cause l'efficacité de ces modèles du fait qu'ils ignorent l'environnement dans lequel l'information se situe. En effet, l'utilisateur n'est plus un simple consommateur de l'information mais il participe également à sa production. Pour accélérer la production de l'information et améliorer la qualité de son travail, l'utilisateur échange de l'information avec son voisinage social dont il partage les mêmes centres d'intérêt. Il préfère généralement obtenir l'information d'un contact direct plutôt qu'à partir d'une source anonyme. Ainsi, l'utilisateur, influencé par son environnement socio-cultuel, donne autant d'importance à la proximité sociale de la ressource d'information autant qu'à la similarité des documents à sa requête. Dans le but de répondre à ces nouvelles attentes, la recherche d'information s'oriente vers l'implication de l'utilisateur et de sa composante sociale dans le processus de la recherche. Ainsi, le nouvel enjeu de la recherche d'information est de modéliser la pertinence compte tenu de la position sociale et de l'influence de sa communauté. Le second enjeu est d'apprendre à produire un ordre de pertinence qui traduise le mieux possible l'importance et l'autorité sociale. C'est dans ce cadre précis, que s'inscrit notre travail. Notre objectif est d'estimer une pertinence sociale en intégrant d'une part les caractéristiques sociales des ressources et d'autre part les mesures de pertinence basées sur les principes de la recherche d'information classique. Nous proposons dans cette thèse d'intégrer le réseau social d'information dans le processus de recherche d'information afin d'utiliser les relations sociales entre les acteurs sociaux comme une source d'évidence pour mesurer la pertinence d'un document en réponse à une requête. Deux modèles de recherche d'information sociale ont été proposés à des cadres applicatifs différents : la recherche d'information bibliographique et la recherche d'information dans les microblogs. Les importantes contributions de chaque modèle sont détaillées dans la suite. Un modèle social pour la recherche d'information bibliographique. Nous avons proposé un modèle générique de la recherche d'information sociale, déployé particulièrement pour l'accès aux ressources bibliographiques. Ce modèle représente les publications scientifiques au sein d'réseau social et évalue leur importance selon la position des auteurs dans le réseau. Comparativement aux approches précédentes, ce modèle intègre des nouvelles entités sociales représentées par les annotateurs et les annotations sociales. En plus des liens de coauteur, ce modèle exploite deux autres types de relations sociales : la citation et l'annotation sociale. Enfin, nous proposons de pondérer ces relations en tenant compte de la position des auteurs dans le réseau social et de leurs mutuelles collaborations. Un modèle social pour la recherche d'information dans les microblogs.} Nous avons proposé un modèle pour la recherche de tweets qui évalue la qualité des tweets selon deux contextes: le contexte social et le contexte temporel. Considérant cela, la qualité d'un tweet est estimé par l'importance sociale du blogueur correspondant. L'importance du blogueur est calculée par l'application de l'algorithme PageRank sur le réseau d'influence sociale. Dans ce même objectif, la qualité d'un tweet est évaluée selon sa date de publication. Les tweets soumis dans les périodes d'activité d'un terme de la requête sont alors caractérisés par une plus grande importance. Enfin, nous proposons d'intégrer l'importance sociale du blogueur et la magnitude temporelle avec les autres facteurs de pertinence en utilisant un modèle Bayésien.An information retrieval system aims at selecting relevant documents that meet user's information needs expressed with a textual query. For the years 1970-1980, various theoretical models have been proposed in this direction to represent, on the one hand, documents and queries and on the other hand to match information needs independently of the user. More recently, the arrival of Web 2.0, known also as the social Web, has questioned the effectiveness of these models since they ignore the environment in which the information is located. In fact, the user is no longer a simple consumer of information but also involved in its production. To accelerate the production of information and improve the quality of their work, users tend to exchange documents with their social neighborhood that shares the same interests. It is commonly preferred to obtain information from a direct contact rather than from an anonymous source. Thus, the user, under the influenced of his social environment, gives as much importance to the social prominence of the information as the textual similarity of documents at the query. In order to meet these new prospects, information retrieval is moving towards novel user centric approaches that take into account the social context within the retrieval process. Thus, the new challenge of an information retrieval system is to model the relevance with regards to the social position and the influence of individuals in their community. The second challenge is produce an accurate ranking of relevance that reflects as closely as possible the importance and the social authority of information producers. It is in this specific context that fits our work. Our goal is to estimate the social relevance of documents by integrating the social characteristics of resources as well as relevance metrics as defined in classical information retrieval field. We propose in this work to integrate the social information network in the retrieval process and exploit the social relations between social actors as a source of evidence to measure the relevance of a document in response to a query. Two social information retrieval models have been proposed in different application frameworks: literature access and microblog retrieval. The main contributions of each model are detailed in the following. A social information model for flexible literature access. We proposed a generic social information retrieval model for literature access. This model represents scientific papers within a social network and evaluates their importance according to the position of respective authors in the network. Compared to previous approaches, this model incorporates new social entities represented by annotators and social annotations (tags). In addition to co-authorships, this model includes two other types of social relationships: citation and social annotation. Finally, we propose to weight these relationships according to the position of authors in the social network and their mutual collaborations. A social model for information retrieval for microblog search. We proposed a microblog retrieval model that evaluates the quality of tweets in two contexts: the social context and temporal context. The quality of a tweet is estimated by the social importance of the corresponding blogger. In particular, blogger's importance is calculated by the applying PageRank algorithm on the network of social influence. With the same aim, the quality of a tweet is evaluated according to its date of publication. Tweets submitted in periods of activity of query terms are then characterized by a greater importance. Finally, we propose to integrate the social importance of blogger and the temporal magnitude tweets as well as other relevance factors using a Bayesian network model

Discovering influence in communication networks using dynamic graph analysis

Abstract—The rise of Internet-based social networks has shifted many decision-impacting discussions online. Increasingly, people weigh new ideas, choose products, pick technologies, find entertainment and socialize virtually by engaging in online discourse. The participants depend on who people find online, who they get to know and trust, and who they consider as authorities on subjects of interest. This paper presents techniques to track who has influence in such a network and how they got there. Many definitions of influence are possible; here we focus specifically on the social interaction and its dynamics, using Twitter as the reference network and data source. We build a replier graph from each user A’s messages mentioning another user B (which may be either “for ” or “about” B), and study how this graph evolves. (In a tweet from A mentioning @B, A is the replier mentioning B.) For every day in the study, we compute a pagerank-type score and a drank, a dynamic function of the pagerank, for all users, together with a series of features such as the number of mentions a user gives or receives. The daily-versioned features enable exploratory data analysis of the conversational dynamics by looking at the relative decline or growth in specific features for every user every day, separately or relative to others. For instance, we find the longest periods of growth in the number of times a user A is mentioned by other users on a day d, m = |M(A, d)|, over a contiguous period of days, and also compute its acceleration over that period, dm/dt. Those accelerating the most, or sustaining the longest growth, or both, are worth closer modeling. Our metrics are applicable to any evolving directed graphs and allow us to find people of growing influence in social networks based purely on the structure and dynamics of their conversations. These are the first dynamic metrics for social networks which take into the account both global and local influence (pagerank and repliers), and can be applied to other communication networks as well. Most interestingly, using them, we uncover a high-intensity ecosystem with its own “mind economy, ” adapting to maximize the participants ’ rankings and promote their shared message