The belief noisy-or model applied to network reliability analysis

One difficulty faced in knowledge engineering for Bayesian Network (BN) is the quan-tification step where the Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) are determined. The number of parameters included in CPTs increases exponentially with the number of parent variables. The most common solution is the application of the so-called canonical gates. The Noisy-OR (NOR) gate, which takes advantage of the independence of causal interactions, provides a logarithmic reduction of the number of parameters required to specify a CPT. In this paper, an extension of NOR model based on the theory of belief functions, named Belief Noisy-OR (BNOR), is proposed. BNOR is capable of dealing with both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty of the network. Compared with NOR, more rich information which is of great value for making decisions can be got when the available knowledge is uncertain. Specially, when there is no epistemic uncertainty, BNOR degrades into NOR. Additionally, different structures of BNOR are presented in this paper in order to meet various needs of engineers. The application of BNOR model on the reliability evaluation problem of networked systems demonstrates its effectiveness

Hybridization of Bayesian networks and belief functions to assess risk. Application to aircraft deconstruction

This paper aims to present a study on knowledge management for the disassembly of end-of-life aircraft. We propose a model using Bayesian networks to assess risk and present three approaches to integrate the belief functions standing for the representation of fuzzy and uncertain knowledge

The Advantage of Evidential Attributes in Social Networks

Nowadays, there are many approaches designed for the task of detecting communities in social networks. Among them, some methods only consider the topological graph structure, while others take use of both the graph structure and the node attributes. In real-world networks, there are many uncertain and noisy attributes in the graph. In this paper, we will present how we detect communities in graphs with uncertain attributes in the first step. The numerical, probabilistic as well as evidential attributes are generated according to the graph structure. In the second step, some noise will be added to the attributes. We perform experiments on graphs with different types of attributes and compare the detection results in terms of the Normalized Mutual Information (NMI) values. The experimental results show that the clustering with evidential attributes gives better results comparing to those with probabilistic and numerical attributes. This illustrates the advantages of evidential attributes.Comment: 20th International Conference on Information Fusion, Jul 2017, Xi'an, Chin

Decision-support methodology to assess risk in end-of-life management of complex systems

End-of-life management of complex systems is increasingly important for industry because of growing environmental concerns and associated regulations. In many areas, lack of hindsight and significant statistical information restricts the efficiency of end-of-life management processes and additional expert knowledge is required. In this context and to promote the reuse of secondhand components, a methodology supported by risk assessment tools is proposed. The proposal consists of an approach to combine expert and statistical knowledge to improve risk assessment. The theory of belief functions provides a common framework to facilitate fusion of multisource knowledge, and a directed evidential network is used to compute a measure of the risk level. An additional indicator is proposed to determine the result quality. Finally, the approach is applied to a scenario in aircraft deconstruction. In order to support the scientific contribution, a software prototype has been developed and used to illustrate the processing of directed evidential networks