37,723 research outputs found
Direct and Indirect Effects -- An Information Theoretic Perspective
Information theoretic (IT) approaches to quantifying causal influences have
experienced some popularity in the literature, in both theoretical and applied
(e.g. neuroscience and climate science) domains. While these causal measures
are desirable in that they are model agnostic and can capture non-linear
interactions, they are fundamentally different from common statistical notions
of causal influence in that they (1) compare distributions over the effect
rather than values of the effect and (2) are defined with respect to random
variables representing a cause rather than specific values of a cause. We here
present IT measures of direct, indirect, and total causal effects. The proposed
measures are unlike existing IT techniques in that they enable measuring causal
effects that are defined with respect to specific values of a cause while still
offering the flexibility and general applicability of IT techniques. We provide
an identifiability result and demonstrate application of the proposed measures
in estimating the causal effect of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation on
temperature anomalies in the North American Pacific Northwest
Emergence of social networks via direct and indirect reciprocity
Many models of social network formation implicitly assume that network properties are static in steady-state. In contrast, actual social networks are highly dynamic: allegiances and collaborations expire and may or may not be renewed at a later date. Moreover, empirical studies show that human social networks are dynamic at the individual level but static at the global level: individuals' degree rankings change considerably over time, whereas network-level metrics such as network diameter and clustering coefficient are relatively stable. There have been some attempts to explain these properties of empirical social networks using agent-based models in which agents play social dilemma games with their immediate neighbours, but can also manipulate their network connections to
strategic advantage. However, such models cannot straightforwardly account for reciprocal behaviour based on reputation scores ("indirect reciprocity"), which is known to play an important role in many economic interactions. In
order to account for indirect reciprocity, we model the network in a bottom-up fashion: the network emerges from the low-level interactions between agents. By so doing we are able to simultaneously account for the effect of both direct reciprocity (e.g. "tit-for-tat") as well as indirect
reciprocity (helping strangers in order to increase one's reputation). This leads to a strategic equilibrium in the frequencies with which strategies are adopted in the population as a whole, but intermittent cycling over different strategies at the level of individual agents, which in turn gives rise to social networks which
are dynamic at the individual level but stable at the network level
Quantifying information transfer and mediation along causal pathways in complex systems
Measures of information transfer have become a popular approach to analyze
interactions in complex systems such as the Earth or the human brain from
measured time series. Recent work has focused on causal definitions of
information transfer excluding effects of common drivers and indirect
influences. While the former clearly constitutes a spurious causality, the aim
of the present article is to develop measures quantifying different notions of
the strength of information transfer along indirect causal paths, based on
first reconstructing the multivariate causal network (\emph{Tigramite}
approach). Another class of novel measures quantifies to what extent different
intermediate processes on causal paths contribute to an interaction mechanism
to determine pathways of causal information transfer. A rigorous mathematical
framework allows for a clear information-theoretic interpretation that can also
be related to the underlying dynamics as proven for certain classes of
processes. Generally, however, estimates of information transfer remain hard to
interpret for nonlinearly intertwined complex systems. But, if experiments or
mathematical models are not available, measuring pathways of information
transfer within the causal dependency structure allows at least for an
abstraction of the dynamics. The measures are illustrated on a climatological
example to disentangle pathways of atmospheric flow over Europe.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figure
Quantifying information transfer and mediation along causal pathways in complex systems
Measures of information transfer have become a popular approach to analyze interactions in complex systems such as the Earth or the human brain from measured time series. Recent work has focused on causal definitions of information transfer aimed at decompositions of predictive information about a target variable, while excluding effects of common drivers and indirect influences. While common drivers clearly constitute a spurious causality, the aim of the present article is to develop measures quantifying different notions of the strength of information transfer along indirect causal paths, based on first reconstructing the multivariate causal network. Another class of novel measures quantifies to what extent different intermediate processes on causal paths contribute to an interaction mechanism to determine pathways of causal information transfer. The proposed framework complements predictive decomposition schemes by focusing more on the interaction mechanism between multiple processes. A rigorous mathematical framework allows for a clear information-theoretic interpretation that can also be related to the underlying dynamics as proven for certain classes of processes. Generally, however, estimates of information transfer remain hard to interpret for nonlinearly intertwined complex systems. But if experiments or mathematical models are not available, then measuring pathways of information transfer within the causal dependency structure allows at least for an abstraction of the dynamics. The measures are illustrated on a climatological example to disentangle pathways of atmospheric flow over Europe
Editorial Comment on the Special Issue of "Information in Dynamical Systems and Complex Systems"
This special issue collects contributions from the participants of the
"Information in Dynamical Systems and Complex Systems" workshop, which cover a
wide range of important problems and new approaches that lie in the
intersection of information theory and dynamical systems. The contributions
include theoretical characterization and understanding of the different types
of information flow and causality in general stochastic processes, inference
and identification of coupling structure and parameters of system dynamics,
rigorous coarse-grain modeling of network dynamical systems, and exact
statistical testing of fundamental information-theoretic quantities such as the
mutual information. The collective efforts reported herein reflect a modern
perspective of the intimate connection between dynamical systems and
information flow, leading to the promise of better understanding and modeling
of natural complex systems and better/optimal design of engineering systems
Reasoning about Action: An Argumentation - Theoretic Approach
We present a uniform non-monotonic solution to the problems of reasoning
about action on the basis of an argumentation-theoretic approach. Our theory is
provably correct relative to a sensible minimisation policy introduced on top
of a temporal propositional logic. Sophisticated problem domains can be
formalised in our framework. As much attention of researchers in the field has
been paid to the traditional and basic problems in reasoning about actions such
as the frame, the qualification and the ramification problems, approaches to
these problems within our formalisation lie at heart of the expositions
presented in this paper
What Was a Relevant Translation in the 18th Century?
The paper applies RT to analyse an 18th century translation of a Latin text by the preeminent Romanian scholar Demetrius Cantemir. The translation diverges significantly from the original and was met with harsh criticism. Using the conceptual toolkit of RT, I argue that the differences between the original and its English translation were motivated by the translator’s desire to yield the same cognitive effect without putting the audience to unnecessary processing effort. Both effects and effort need to be evaluated by taking into account the respective cognitive environments of the source-text and the target-text audiences. The intertextual dimension of the text under scrutiny adds to the difficulty of communicating the same message in different languages and cultures
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