International Patenting and Technology Diffusion

We model the invention of new technologies and their diffusion across countries. Our model predicts that, eventually, all countries will grow at the same rate, with each country's productivity ranking determined by how rapidly it adopts inventions. The common growth rate depends on research efforts in all countries, while research effort is determined by how much inventions earn at home and abroad. Patents affect the return to invention. We relate the decision to patent an invention internationally to the cost of patenting in a country and to the expected value of patent protection in that country. We can thus infer the direction and magnitude of the international diffusion of technology from data on international patenting, productivity, and research. We fit the model to data from the five leading research economies. The parameters indicate how much technology flows between these countries and how much each country earns from its inventions domestically and elsewhere. Our results imply that foreign countries are important sources of technology even though countries earn most of their return to innovation at home. For example, about half of U.S. productivity growth derives from foreign technology yet U.S. investors earn 98 per cent of the revenue from their inventions domestically.

Modelling Of Eco-innovation Diffusion: The EU Eco-label

The aim of this article is to carry out a theoretical and empirical analysis of the process of eco-label diffusion. Eco-labels allow consumers to identify products and services that have a reduced environmental impact during their life cycle. Thus, they are aimed at diminishing the information gap between sellers and buyers. The results of the estimation using the Bass model indicate that the diffusion of the EU eco-label has been most dynamic in countries such as Hungary, Poland, Denmark, Germany and France. In turn, the scope of diffusion (absolute saturation level) reached the highest value for companies in France and Italy. In addition, the results of the study confirm the stimulating impact of the scope of eco-label diffusion on consumer awareness of environmental issues. This finding points to the need for environmental education among consumers, which could in turn encourage firms to undertake pro-environmental actions

The development impact of genetic use restriction technologies: a forecast based on the hybrid crop experience

Advances in biotechnology have made available gene-manipulation techniques that enable the protection of genetic material from unauthorized use and the prevention of self-supply of commercial seeds by farmers—in order to allow enhanced appropriation of the values of innovation in agricultural R&D. These techniques have become known as Genetic Use Restriction Technologies (GURTs). This paper forecasts the potential impact of wide-spread adoption of GURTs by the providers of HYV seeds on the yield development in developing countries. To do so, it assesses (1) the effects of enhanced appropriation through GURTs on the technological expansion at the yield frontier and (2) the effects of technological protection of value-adding traits through GURTS on the diffusion of yield gains from the frontier to developing countries. These assessments are based on a particular hypothesis, which is that GURTs will replicate across most staple crops the experiences that were made with a previous use restriction technology (hybridization) in only a few crops. The estimation of impacts is carried out as a simulation and is based on expansion and diffusion parameters estimated for hybrid seeds over a 38-year period. It shows that the impact of GURTs on developing countries' yields will vary considerably. Specifically, those countries that currently have the lowest yields would be most adversely affected in their future yield development by the wide-spread use of GURTs

The high-yield segment of the corporate bond market: a diffusion modelling approach for the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area

This study empirically examines the development of the high-yield segment of the corporate bond market in the United States, as a pioneer country, and the United Kingdom and the euro area, as later adopting countries. Estimated diffusion models show for the United States a significant pioneer influence factor and autonomous speed of diffusion. The latter is found to be higher in Europe than in the United States as also macroeconomic factors are considered. The high-yield bond diffusion pattern is significantly affected by financing need variables, e.g. leverage buy-outs, mergers and acquisitions, and industrial production growth, and return or financing cost variables, e.g. stock market return and the spread between the yield on speculative-grade and BBB-rated investment-grade bonds. These findings suggest that the diffusion of new financial products depends on the macroeconomic environment and can be quickly in case of the diffusion from a pioneer country to later adopting countries. JEL Classification: G32, E44diffusion models, financial innovation, high-yield bond market

Innovation and Diffusion

The contribution made by innovation and new technologies to economic growth and welfare is largely determined by the rate and manner by which innovations diffuse throughout the relevant population, but this topic has been a somewhat neglected one in the economics of innovation. This chapter, written for a handbook on innovation, provides a historical and comparative perspective on diffusion that looks at the broad determinants of diffusion, economic, social, and institutional, viewed from a microeconomic perspective. A framework for thinking about these determinants is presented along with a brief nontechnical review of modeling strategies used in different social scientific literatures. It concludes with a discussion of gaps in our understanding and potential future research questions.

The impact of the patent system on the social welfare: A critical view

Purpose: This article offers a critical view of the impact of patents on economic activity. The article questions whether a strengthening of the patent system is optimal in economic terms, from a business and social perspective. Design/methodology/approach: We develop two analytic innovation models. They help us to understand how the strength of the patent system affects 1) the industry profits 2) the social welfare. Findings: The strengthening of patent systems could cause a decline in the activities of imitation and, therefore, a decrease in competition, a reduction in the production and assimilation of new technologies and could create barriers to entry into technology-intensive sectors, increasing the costs of production. We will show that a lower strength patent system and an increase in the activities of imitation can i) increase the benefits to industry as a whole ii) lead to greater social surplus. R e s e a r c h l i m i t a t i o n s / i m p l i c a t i o n s : The final set of sustainability-related issues (and drivers) presented aren’t exhaustive and are delimited by the particular scenario generated around Aqualogy’s business scope; therefore, it cannot be considered as a standard application mode. Originality/value: Much of the literature on innovation has traditionally seen imitation processes as harmful to the development of new technologies, and detrimental to the welfare of consumers, producers and society at large. That is why policies aimed at strengthening the patent system and discouraging imitation processes are associated with improvements in social welfare, -fostering innovation, trade, foreign investment and technology transfer-. However, our findings should lead us to rethink how optimal innovation policy should be designed. The problems associated with restrictions on the free market involve costs that outweigh the social benefits that patents can provide. Market mechanisms can effectively reward innovators for being the first to bring a product into the market, without the need to grant a monopoly.Peer Reviewe

Research Lags Revisited: Concepts and Evidence from U.S. Agriculture

Many researchers and commentators underestimate the length and importance of the time lags between initial research investment and ultimate impacts on the development and adoption of technological innovations. In both econometric studies of productivity and ex post and ex ante benefit-cost evaluations of research investments, researchers typically impose untested assumptions about the R&D lag, which can have profound implications for the results. In this paper we present a range of evidence on agricultural R&D lags including both aggregative analysis of U.S. agricultural productivity using time series data, and some specific details on the timelines for the research, development, and adoption processes for particular mechanical and biological innovations in U.S. agriculture. The aggregative analysis makes use of a comparatively rich state-level data set on U.S. agriculture that makes it possible to test hypotheses about the R&D lag and to evaluate the implications for the specification of models of production and for findings regarding the rate of return to public research investments. The results support the use of a longer lag with a different shape than is typically imposed in studies of industrial R&D. These findings are supported by the timelines for specific technological innovations, including new crop varieties, as well as tractors and other mechanical innovations.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Diffusion of Lexical Change in Social Media

Computer-mediated communication is driving fundamental changes in the nature of written language. We investigate these changes by statistical analysis of a dataset comprising 107 million Twitter messages (authored by 2.7 million unique user accounts). Using a latent vector autoregressive model to aggregate across thousands of words, we identify high-level patterns in diffusion of linguistic change over the United States. Our model is robust to unpredictable changes in Twitter's sampling rate, and provides a probabilistic characterization of the relationship of macro-scale linguistic influence to a set of demographic and geographic predictors. The results of this analysis offer support for prior arguments that focus on geographical proximity and population size. However, demographic similarity -- especially with regard to race -- plays an even more central role, as cities with similar racial demographics are far more likely to share linguistic influence. Rather than moving towards a single unified "netspeak" dialect, language evolution in computer-mediated communication reproduces existing fault lines in spoken American English.Comment: preprint of PLOS-ONE paper from November 2014; PLoS ONE 9(11) e11311