Distributional Implications of Alternative U.S. Greenhouse Gas Control Measures

We analyze the distributional and efficiency impacts of different allowance allocation schemes for a national cap and trade system using the USREP model, a new recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. The USREP model tracks nine different income groups and twelve different geographic regions with the United States. Recently proposed legislation include the Waxman-Markey House bill, the similar Kerry-Boxer bill in the Senate that has been replaced by a Kerry-Lieberman draft bill, and the Cantwell-Collins Senate bill that takes a different approach to revenue allocation. We consider allocation schemes motivated by the recent proposals applied to a comprehensive national cap and trade system that limits cumulative greenhouse gas emissions over the control period to 203 billion metric tons. The policy target approximates national goals identified in pending legislation. We find that the allocation schemes in all proposals are progressive over the lower half of the income distribution and proportional in the upper half of the income distribution. Scenarios based on the Cantwell-Collins allocation proposal are less progressive in early years and have lower welfare costs due to smaller redistribution to low income households and consequently lower income-induced increases in energy demand and less savings and investment. Scenarios based on the other three allocation schemes tend to overcompensate some adversely affected income groups and regions in early years but this dissipates over time as the allowance allocation effect becomes weaker. Finally we find that carbon pricing by itself (ignoring the return of carbon revenues through allowance allocations) is proportional to modestly progressive. This striking result follows from the dominance of the sources over uses side impacts of the policy and stands in sharp contrast to previous work that has focused only on the uses side. The main reason is that lower is that lower income households derive a large fraction of income from government transfers and, reflecting the reality that these are generally indexed to inflation, we hold the transfers constant in real terms. As a result this source of income is unaffected by carbon pricing, while wage and capital income is affected.

Diffusion and Impacts of E-Commerce in the United States of America: Results from an Industry Survey

The paper provides baseline conditions of U.S. e-commerce in the post-dot.com era. The article examines the key factors that act as determinants of e-commerce diffusion. It is based on qualitative analysis of U.S. industry survey data, matched to a similar data and analyses from other countries. It presents data taken from one of the most comprehensive sample surveys of U.S. firm activity in e-commerce. The paper analyzes differences among three industry sectors, and between small/medium and large firms using both qualitative interpretations and direct observations from the survey data, as well as use of structural equation modeling of e-commerce diffusion and impacts. Some differences in e-commerce orientation and experience were found across the three industry sectors studied in the survey. These differences are related largely to the nature of the tasks done in the respective industries, and to prior industry-level investment and learning related to e-commerce. There were also differences found in e-commerce attitudes and experience between small/medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and large establishments. Only modest differences were found between U.S. and non-U.S. establishments. Quantitative analysis revealed significant regression relationships with their level of statistical significance. Results show that e-commerce adoption is path dependent (i.e., establishments follow earlier investment patterns), and that each industry\u27s market and institutional context play a significant role in adoption

Determinants of power spreads in electricity futures markets: A multinational analysis. ESRI WP580, December 2017

The growth in variable renewable energy (vRES) and the need for flexibility in power systems go hand in hand. We study how vRES and other factors, namely the price of substitute fuels, power price volatility, structural breaks, and seasonality impact the hedgeable power spreads (profit margins) of the main dispatchable flexibility providers in the current power systems - gas and coal power plants. We particularly focus on power spreads that are hedgeable in futures markets in three European electricity markets (Germany, UK, Nordic) over the time period 2009-2016. We find that market participants who use power spreads need to pay attention to the fundamental supply and demand changes in the underlying markets (electricity, CO2, and coal/gas). Specifically, we show that the total vRES capacity installed during 2009-2016 is associated with a drop of 3-22% in hedgeable profit margins of coal and especially gas power generators. While this shows that the expansion of vRES has a significant negative effect on the hedgeable profitability of dispatchable, flexible power generators, it also suggests that the overall decline in power spreads is further driven by the price dynamics in the CO2 and fuel markets during the sample period. We also find significant persistence (and asymmetric effects) in the power spreads volatility using a univariate TGARCH model

Towards Sustainable Fisheries Management: International Examples of Innovation

Fisheries change often carries its own financial rewards. Many reforms and changes which support conservation also result in higher profits and revenue streams for the involved businesses. This makes fisheries a potentially attractive investment arena for many commercial investors, once reform projects are properly structured and agreed upon between conservationists and the involved businesses. As commercial investors and social investors become more involved in the field of fisheries, the scale of the impacts that can be achieved is expected to expand. Foundations in the field are now looking to support this transition from fisheries conservation as a purely philanthropic investment to a blended conservation and business investment by encouraging non-profits, social change leaders and business entrepreneurs to create innovatively structured projects that can both build value for private investors and improve the speed and scale of fisheries conservation impacts. This report aims to support this transition, by providing information about and high-lighting the work of those at the forefront of innovative fisheries finance

Back to the basics in banking ? A micro-analysis of banking system stability

This paper analyzes the relationship between banks’ divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. We first generate market-based measures of banks’ systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which equals the probability of a sharp decline in a bank’s stock price conditional on a crash in a banking index. Subsequently, the impact of (the correlation between) interest income and the components of non-interest income on this risk measure is assessed. The heterogeneity in extreme bank risk is attributed to differences in the scope of non-traditional banking activities: non-interest generating activities increase banks’ tail beta. In addition, smaller banks and better-capitalized banks are better able to withstand extremely adverse conditions. These relationships are stronger during turbulent times compared to normal economic conditions. Overall, diversifying financial activities under one umbrella institution does not improve banking system stability, which may explain why financial conglomerates trade at a discountdiversification, non-interest income, financial conglomerates, banking stability, extreme value analysis, tail risk

THE RECESSION, BUDGETS, COMPETITION, AND REGULATION: SHOULD THE STATE SUPPLY BESPOKE PROTECTION? RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 12 OCTOBER 2009

Recessions are harsh. Demand declines. Firms shed labour, reduce output or file for bankruptcy. Pressure mounts to reduce prices and increase productivity. Returns decline; margins are squeezed; dividends are suspended. Unemployment increases. Firms seek to delay payments to suppliers, while simultaneously demanding suppliers reduce input prices and extend credit. Carefully assembled workforce teams are broken up. New products and innovations are put on hold. Competition is characterised as cut-throat, destructive and excessive. Faith in markets begins to be questioned

Mergers and acquisitions transactions strategies in diffusion - type financial systems in highly volatile global capital markets with nonlinearities

The M and A transactions represent a wide range of unique business optimization opportunities in the corporate transformation deals, which are usually characterized by the high level of total risk. The M and A transactions can be successfully implemented by taking to an account the size of investments, purchase price, direction of transaction, type of transaction, and using the modern comparable transactions analysis and the business valuation techniques in the diffusion type financial systems in the finances. We developed the MicroMA software program with the embedded optimized near-real-time artificial intelligence algorithm to create the winning virtuous M and A strategies, using the financial performance characteristics of the involved firms, and to estimate the probability of the M and A transaction completion success. We believe that the fluctuating dependence of M and A transactions number over the certain time period is quasi periodic. We think that there are many factors, which can generate the quasi periodic oscillations of the M and A transactions number in the time domain, for example: the stock market bubble effects. We performed the research of the nonlinearities in the M and A transactions number quasi-periodic oscillations in Matlab, including the ideal, linear, quadratic, and exponential dependences. We discovered that the average of a sum of random numbers in the M and A transactions time series represents a time series with the quasi periodic systematic oscillations, which can be finely approximated by the polynomial numbers. We think that, in the course of the M and A transaction implementation, the ability by the companies to absorb the newly acquired knowledge and to create the new innovative knowledge bases, is a key predeterminant of the M and A deal completion success as in Switzerland.Comment: 160 pages, 9 figures, 37 table

Vertical Scope Revisited: Transaction Costs vs Capabilities & Profit Opportunities in Mortgage Banking

What determines vertical scope? Transactions cost economics (TCE) has been the dominant paradigm for understanding "make" vs. "buy" choices. However, the traditional focus on empirically validating or refuting TCE has taken attention away from other possible drivers of scope, and it has rarely allowed us to understand the explanatory power of TCE versus other competing theories. This paper, using a particularly rich panel dataset from the Mortgage Banking industry, explores both the extent to which TCE predictions hold, and their ability to explain the variance in scope, when compared to all other possible drivers of integration. Using some direct measures of transaction costs, we observe that integration does mitigate risks; yet such risks and transaction costs do not seem to drive firm-level decisions of integration in retail production of loans. Rather, capability-driven and capacity- (or limit to growth-) driven considerations explain a significant amount of variance in our sample, under a variety of specifications and tests. We thus conclude that while TCE explanations of vertical scope are important, their impact is dwarfed by capability differences and by the desire of firms to leverage their capabilities and productive capacity by using the market.Mortgage Banking; Transaction Costs; Integration; Capabilities; Capacity Constraints; Limits to Growth

Financial Systems and Economic Growth: An Evaluation Framework for Policy

The purpose of this paper is to develop an analytical framework for discussing the link between financial systems and economic growth. Financial systems help overcome an information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders. If they do not function well, economic growth will be negatively affected. Three policy implications follow. First, the analysis underscores the importance of maintaining solid legal foundations because the financial system relies on these. Second, it demonstrates the necessity for reforming tax policy as it applies to investment, as this is demonstrated to significantly affect the operation of the financial system. Finally, given the importance of financial development for economic growth, a more in-depth review of New Zealand’s financial system in the context of financial regulation and supervision would be valuable.Economic growth; financial development; financial systems; financial regulation; legal system; institutions; tax