7,754 research outputs found
Modeling hierarchical relationships in epidemiological studies: a Bayesian networks approach
Hierarchical relationships between risk factors are seldom taken into account in epidemiological studies though some authors stressed the importance of doing so, and proposed a conceptual framework in which each level of the hierarchy is modeled separately. The objective of this paper was to implement a simple version of their framework, and to propose an alternative procedure based on a Bayesian Network (BN). These approaches were illustrated in modeling the risk of diarrhea infection for 2740 children aged 0 to 59 months in Cameroon. The authors implemented a (naïve) logistic regression, a step-level logistic regression and also a BN. While the first approach is inadequate, the two others approaches both account for the hierarchical structure but to different estimates and interpretations. BN implementation showed that a child in a family in the poorest group has respectively 89%, 40% and 18% probabilities of having poor sanitation, being malnourished and having diarrhea. An advantage of the latter approach is that it enables one to determine the probability that a risk factor (and/or the outcome) is in a given state, given the states of the others. Although the BN considered here is very simple, the method can deal with more complicated models.Bayesian networks; hierarchical model; diarrhea infection; disease determinants; logistic regression
Semi-Supervised Learning, Causality and the Conditional Cluster Assumption
While the success of semi-supervised learning (SSL) is still not fully
understood, Sch\"olkopf et al. (2012) have established a link to the principle
of independent causal mechanisms. They conclude that SSL should be impossible
when predicting a target variable from its causes, but possible when predicting
it from its effects. Since both these cases are somewhat restrictive, we extend
their work by considering classification using cause and effect features at the
same time, such as predicting disease from both risk factors and symptoms.
While standard SSL exploits information contained in the marginal distribution
of all inputs (to improve the estimate of the conditional distribution of the
target given inputs), we argue that in our more general setting we should use
information in the conditional distribution of effect features given causal
features. We explore how this insight generalises the previous understanding,
and how it relates to and can be exploited algorithmically for SSL.Comment: 36th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (2020)
(Previously presented at the NeurIPS 2019 workshop "Do the right thing":
machine learning and causal inference for improved decision making,
Vancouver, Canada.
Learning and comparing functional connectomes across subjects
Functional connectomes capture brain interactions via synchronized
fluctuations in the functional magnetic resonance imaging signal. If measured
during rest, they map the intrinsic functional architecture of the brain. With
task-driven experiments they represent integration mechanisms between
specialized brain areas. Analyzing their variability across subjects and
conditions can reveal markers of brain pathologies and mechanisms underlying
cognition. Methods of estimating functional connectomes from the imaging signal
have undergone rapid developments and the literature is full of diverse
strategies for comparing them. This review aims to clarify links across
functional-connectivity methods as well as to expose different steps to perform
a group study of functional connectomes
ExplainIt! -- A declarative root-cause analysis engine for time series data (extended version)
We present ExplainIt!, a declarative, unsupervised root-cause analysis engine
that uses time series monitoring data from large complex systems such as data
centres. ExplainIt! empowers operators to succinctly specify a large number of
causal hypotheses to search for causes of interesting events. ExplainIt! then
ranks these hypotheses, reducing the number of causal dependencies from
hundreds of thousands to a handful for human understanding. We show how a
declarative language, such as SQL, can be effective in declaratively
enumerating hypotheses that probe the structure of an unknown probabilistic
graphical causal model of the underlying system. Our thesis is that databases
are in a unique position to enable users to rapidly explore the possible causal
mechanisms in data collected from diverse sources. We empirically demonstrate
how ExplainIt! had helped us resolve over 30 performance issues in a commercial
product since late 2014, of which we discuss a few cases in detail.Comment: SIGMOD Industry Track 201
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