Hydrometeorological Phenomena and Multi-Hazards: Mathematical Modelling, Decision Support Systems, Geoinformation Systems (Review)

Purpose. The article represents the analysis of current state of research and achievements in the field of natural hazards (including hydrometeorological ones), and their ensembles (multi-hazards) based on the papers published in the specialized international and Russian scientific journals and monographs. Methods and Results. Considered are the modern methods for mathematical modeling of hydrometeorological multi-hazards, the methods for assessing the relations between the hazards and multi-hazards, the existing decision support systems, and the methods for assessing the risks of occurrence of hazards and multi-hazards. The ensemble models and the possibilities of cloud computing were reviewed; the experience of integrating the geoinformation systems and the results of the Earth remote sensing in models was studied. Examples of the modeling platforms and the decision support systems (developed in different countries) intended for application in case of the natural hazards, are represented. Conclusions. It is shown that solution of the problems including forecasting, monitoring and minimizing the consequences of natural hazards and their combinations requires interdisciplinary solutions, on the one hand, and interaction between all the stakeholders – society, government, science and business, on the other. It is important to develop and implement an integrated management in the regions that are particularly at risk. Field observations are of primary importance. Within the framework of the country, an integrated modeling system taking into account complex processes such as hazards, should be necessarily developed. Special attention should be paid to the peculiarities of natural disasters occurring in the northern regions of our country, since they are often characterized by extreme background weather conditions, inaccessibility and remoteness, lack of the infrastructure required for saving people and eliminating the consequences

11th International Coral Reef Symposium Proceedings

A defining theme of the 11th International Coral Reef Symposium was that the news for coral reef ecosystems are far from encouraging. Climate change happens now much faster than in an ice-age transition, and coral reefs continue to suffer fever-high temperatures as well as sour ocean conditions. Corals may be falling behind, and there appears to be no special silver bullet remedy. Nevertheless, there are hopeful signs that we should not despair. Reef ecosystems respond vigorously to protective measures and alleviation of stress. For concerned scientists, managers, conservationists, stakeholders, students, and citizens, there is a great role to play in continuing to report on the extreme threat that climate change represents to earth’s natural systems. Urgent action is needed to reduce CO2 emissions. In the interim, we can and must buy time for coral reefs through increased protection from sewage, sediment, pollutants, overfishing, development, and other stressors, all of which we know can damage coral health. The time to act is now. The canary in the coral-coal mine is dead, but we still have time to save the miners. We need effective management rooted in solid interdisciplinary science and coupled with stakeholder buy in, working at local, regional, and international scales alongside global efforts to give reefs a chance.https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_icrs/1000/thumbnail.jp

Development of a spatial Decision Support System (DSS) for the Spencer Gulf penaeid prawn fishery South Australia

Copyright © 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reservedThe Spencer Gulf penaeid prawn fishery in South Australia has undergone a substantial increase in fishing efficiency (and profitability) mainly due to the implementation of adaptive harvest strategies requiring rapid response for change to harvesting plans. This paper describes the management background and the decision-making process leading to the development of a basic Decision Support System (DSS) that uses spatial information techniques and near real-time fishery-independent survey data. The system is implemented through linking an Oracle database to ArcGIS, Genstat and Splus. Two examples show the application of the DSS for optimal harvest timing and assessment of fishery sustainability. Fishery-independent survey data are used to assess stock and model population growth. The first example shows the information flow leading to a dynamic stock model and the estimate of value change as a function of harvest time. The second example shows how the DSS is used to validate and refine existing biological reference limits by evaluating long-term detailed data sets of the prawn population structure and catch dynamics. We conclude that it is important for the economic benefit and sustainability of the fishery to maintain and improve the collection of long-term data sets that are independent of commercial fishery statistics.N.A. Carrick and B. Ostendorfhttp://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/422921/description#descriptio

Fishery optimisation models aimed at improving management of marine fisheries in Croatia

Ovaj rad predstavlja koncept sustava za podršku odlučivanju u morskom ribarstvu (SPO MR) koji u bazi modela uključuje modele za unaprjeđenje sustava upravljanja morskim ribarstvom i namijenjen je za oblikovanje novih politika i strategija upravljanja ribarstva. Validacija modela optimizacije ribolova u funkciji unaprjeđenja sustava upravljanja izvršena je na primjeru koćarskog ribolova i koćarske flote Republike Hrvatske upotrebom višekriterijalnih metoda AHP i PROMETHEE. U validaciji predloženih optimizacijskih modela korišteni su podaci prikupljeni tijekom monitoringa demerzalnih vrsta morskih organizama; istraživanja na brodu; podatci od Uprave ribarstva; Osiguravatelja; Državnog zavoda za statistiku i drugih sekundarnih izvora. Korištena tehnika za uključivanja relevantnih dionika u procesu strateškog, održivog planiranja u procesima odlučivanja pokazala se korisnom za dizajniranje specifičnog SPO MR. Novost i znanstveni doprinos predloženog SPO MR ostvareni su generiranim modelima i kriterijima proisteklim iz pristupa temeljenog na ekosustavu uključujući elemente cijelog istraživanog sustava, biološkog i socio-ekonomskog. Elementi višekriterijalnog modela su kreirani i ocijenjeni u suradnji s identificiranim grupama dionika predmetnog sustava. Analiza 166 koćarskih plovila do razine jednog ribarskog broda naglašava fleksibilnost i raznolikost u kreiranju politika i strategija za održivo upravljanje koćarskom flotom, te se može koristiti za postizanje usklađenosti između ribolovnog kapaciteta i ribolovnih mogućnosti što predstavlja jedinstveni pristup u dostupnoj literaturi.This dissertation presents a decision-making support system for marine fisheries (DSSMF), including models for improving the marine fisheries management system, intended for use in the shaping of new fishery management policies and strategies. Validation of fishery optimisation models was performed on the example of the trawl fishery and trawl fleet of the Republic of Croatia, using the multicriteria methods AHP and PROMETHEE. Validation of these models applied data collected during demersal species monitoring and on-board research, and data from the Fisheries Directorate, insurance companies, Central Bureau of Statistics and secondary sources. Including relevant stakeholders in the strategic and sustainable planning process of decision-making proved to be beneficial in designing a specific DSSMF. The novelty and scientific contribution of the proposed DSSMF ensues from the generated models and criteria from the ecosystem-based approach, including biological and socio-economic elements. Elements of the multicriteria model were selected and assessed in cooperation with identified stakeholder groups. The analysis of 166 trawl vessels, to the level of the individual fishing boat, allows for flexibility and diversity in creating policies and strategies for sustainable management of the trawl fleet, and may be used to improve alignment between fishing capacities and opportunities, thus representing a unique approach in the literature

Fishery optimisation models aimed at improving management of marine fisheries in Croatia

Ovaj rad predstavlja koncept sustava za podršku odlučivanju u morskom ribarstvu (SPO MR) koji u bazi modela uključuje modele za unaprjeđenje sustava upravljanja morskim ribarstvom i namijenjen je za oblikovanje novih politika i strategija upravljanja ribarstva. Validacija modela optimizacije ribolova u funkciji unaprjeđenja sustava upravljanja izvršena je na primjeru koćarskog ribolova i koćarske flote Republike Hrvatske upotrebom višekriterijalnih metoda AHP i PROMETHEE. U validaciji predloženih optimizacijskih modela korišteni su podaci prikupljeni tijekom monitoringa demerzalnih vrsta morskih organizama; istraživanja na brodu; podatci od Uprave ribarstva; Osiguravatelja; Državnog zavoda za statistiku i drugih sekundarnih izvora. Korištena tehnika za uključivanja relevantnih dionika u procesu strateškog, održivog planiranja u procesima odlučivanja pokazala se korisnom za dizajniranje specifičnog SPO MR. Novost i znanstveni doprinos predloženog SPO MR ostvareni su generiranim modelima i kriterijima proisteklim iz pristupa temeljenog na ekosustavu uključujući elemente cijelog istraživanog sustava, biološkog i socio-ekonomskog. Elementi višekriterijalnog modela su kreirani i ocijenjeni u suradnji s identificiranim grupama dionika predmetnog sustava. Analiza 166 koćarskih plovila do razine jednog ribarskog broda naglašava fleksibilnost i raznolikost u kreiranju politika i strategija za održivo upravljanje koćarskom flotom, te se može koristiti za postizanje usklađenosti između ribolovnog kapaciteta i ribolovnih mogućnosti što predstavlja jedinstveni pristup u dostupnoj literaturi.This dissertation presents a decision-making support system for marine fisheries (DSSMF), including models for improving the marine fisheries management system, intended for use in the shaping of new fishery management policies and strategies. Validation of fishery optimisation models was performed on the example of the trawl fishery and trawl fleet of the Republic of Croatia, using the multicriteria methods AHP and PROMETHEE. Validation of these models applied data collected during demersal species monitoring and on-board research, and data from the Fisheries Directorate, insurance companies, Central Bureau of Statistics and secondary sources. Including relevant stakeholders in the strategic and sustainable planning process of decision-making proved to be beneficial in designing a specific DSSMF. The novelty and scientific contribution of the proposed DSSMF ensues from the generated models and criteria from the ecosystem-based approach, including biological and socio-economic elements. Elements of the multicriteria model were selected and assessed in cooperation with identified stakeholder groups. The analysis of 166 trawl vessels, to the level of the individual fishing boat, allows for flexibility and diversity in creating policies and strategies for sustainable management of the trawl fleet, and may be used to improve alignment between fishing capacities and opportunities, thus representing a unique approach in the literature

Composting modelling : towards a better understanding of the fundamentals, applications for enhanced nutrient recycling, greenhouse gas reduction, and improved decision-making

Cette thèse de doctorat vise à consolider, développer et appliquer nos connaissances sur la modélisation du compostage, dans le but de fournir des informations, des outils et des perspectives accessibles et utilisables pour les chercheurs et les décideurs. L'espoir est que les travaux développés tout au long de cette thèse puissent aider à optimiser les procédés de compostage, notamment en réduisant les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) et en améliorant le recyclage des nutriments. A ce titre, la thèse est divisée en trois phases : (1) la phase 1 est une consolidation et un développement des notions fondamentales de la modélisation du compostage, (2) suivie de la phase 2, où la modélisation de la perte de nutriments et des émissions de GES est étudiée, (3) avec la phase 3 qui est axée sur la manière d'assurer que ce travail puisse être utilisé par les décideurs et acteurs dans le milieu de compostage. Dans la première phase, une revue complète et systématique de l'ensemble de la littérature sur la modélisation du compostage a été entreprise (chapitre 2), cherchant à fournir une meilleure compréhension du travail qui a été fait et sur la direction des travaux futurs. Ceci a été suivi d'une étudie détaillée des approches de modélisation cinétique actuelles, notamment par rapport aux facteurs de corrections cinétiques appliqués à travers le domaine (chapitre 3). La phase 2 s'est ensuite focalisée sur les notions spécifiques relatives aux émissions de GES et aux pertes de nutriments lors du compostage, et à la modélisation de ces phénomènes. Cette thèse présente les réacteurs expérimentaux et le plan conçu pour suivre et évaluer le processus de compostage (chapitre 4), ainsi que le modèle de compostage compréhensif développé pour prédire avec précision les émissions et la transformation des nutriments pendant le compostage (chapitre 5). Enfin, la phase 3 visait à rendre ces informations facilement et largement utilisables. Cela a commencé par une évaluation des meilleures pratiques pour développer des modèles et des systèmes d'aide à la décision pour la prise de décision environnementale (chapitre 6), suivi par le développement de nouvelles approches de modélisation cinétique simples (chapitre 7), culminant avec le développement, l'ajustement paramétrique et la validation d'un modèle de compostage parcimonieux (chapitre 8). Grâce à ce travail, une base consolidée de l'état actuel de la modélisation du compostage a été développée, suivie par l'exploration et le développement de connaissances et d'outils à la fois fondamentaux et applicables.This PhD thesis aims consolidating, developing, and applying our knowledge on composting modelling, with the goal of providing accessible and usable information, tools, and perspectives for researchers and decision-makers alike. The hope is that the work developed throughout this dissertation can help in optimizing composting, notably by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improving nutrient recycling. As such, the thesis is divided into three phases: (1) phase 1 is a consolidation and development of the fundamentals of composting modelling, (2) followed by phase 2, where the modelling of nutrient loss and GHG emissions is investigated, (3) with phase 3 focusing on how to ensure that this work can be used by decision-makers. In the first phase, a comprehensive and systematic review of the entirety of the literature on composting modelling was undertaken (chapter 2), seeking to provide a better understanding on the work that has been done and guidance on where future work should focus and how it should be approached. This review then raised some interesting questions regarding modelling approaches, notably regarding modelling of composting kinetics, which was studied in detail through the evaluation of current modelling approaches (chapter 3). Phase 2 then focused on the specific notions relating to GHG emissions and nutrient loss during composting, and how to model these phenomena. This section starts with a presentation of the experimental reactors and plan designed to monitor and evaluate the composting process (chapter 4), followed by the comprehensive composting model developed to accurately predict emissions and nutrient transformation during composting (chapter 5). Finally, phase 3 aimed to make this information easily and widely usable, especially for decision-makers. This started with a review on the best practices to develop models and decision support systems for environmental decision-making (chapter 6), followed by the development of novel simple kinetic modelling approaches (chapter 7), culminating with the development, calibration, and validation of a parsimonious composting model (chapter 8). Through this work, a consolidated basis of the current state on composting modelling has been developed, followed-up by the exploration and development of both fundamental and applicable knowledge and tools