Modeling of GRACE-Derived Groundwater Information in the Colorado River Basin

Groundwater depletion has been one of the major challenges in recent years. Analysis of groundwater levels can be beneficial for groundwater management. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s twin satellite, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), serves in monitoring terrestrial water storage. Increasing freshwater demand amidst recent drought (2000–2014) posed a significant groundwater level decline within the Colorado River Basin (CRB). In the current study, a non-parametric technique was utilized to analyze historical groundwater variability. Additionally, a stochastic Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was developed and tested to forecast the GRACE-derived groundwater anomalies within the CRB. The ARIMA model was trained with the GRACE data from January 2003 to December of 2013 and validated with GRACE data from January 2014 to December of 2016. Groundwater anomaly from January 2017 to December of 2019 was forecasted with the tested model. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots were drawn to identify and construct the seasonal ARIMA models. ARIMA order for each grid was evaluated based on Akaike’s and Bayesian information criterion. The error analysis showed the reasonable numerical accuracy of selected seasonal ARIMA models. The proposed models can be used to forecast groundwater variability for sustainable groundwater planning and management

The El Niño event of 2015-16: climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa

The impact of climate variability on groundwater storage has received limited attention despite widespread dependence on groundwater as a resource for drinking water, agriculture and industry. Here, we assess the climate anomalies that occurred over Southern Africa (SA) and East Africa, south of the equator (EASE), during the major El Niño event of 2015-16, and their associated impacts on groundwater storage, across scales, through analysis of in situ groundwater piezometry and GRACE satellite data. At the continental scale, the El Niño of 2015-16 was associated with a pronounced dipole of opposing rainfall anomalies over EASE and Southern Africa, north/south of ~120S, a characteristic pattern of ENSO. Over Southern Africa the most intense drought event in the historical record occurred, based on an analysis of the cross-scale areal intensity of surface water balance anomalies (as represented by the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), with an estimated return period of at least 200 years and a best estimate of 260 years. Climate risks are changing and we estimate that anthropogenic warming only (ignoring changes to other climate variables e.g. 43 precipitation) has approximately doubled the risk of such an extreme SPEI drought event. These surface water balance deficits suppressed groundwater recharge, leading to a substantial groundwater storage decline indicated by both GRACE satellite and piezometric data in the 46 Limpopo basin. Conversely, over EASE during the 2015-16 El Niño event, anomalously wet conditions were observed with an estimated return period of ~10 years, likely moderated by the absence of a strongly positive Indian Ocean Zonal Mode phase. The strong but not extreme rainy season increased groundwater storage as shown by satellite GRACE data and rising groundwater levels observed at a site in central Tanzania. We note substantial uncertainties in separating groundwater from total water storage in GRACE data and show that consistency between GRACE and piezometric estimates of groundwater storage is apparent when spatial averaging scales are comparable. These results have implications for sustainable and climate-resilient groundwater resource management, including the potential for adaptive strategies, such as managed aquifer recharge during episodic recharge events

Large-scale assessment of groundwater reserves and processes in Brazil, South America

As reservas de água subterrânea estão entre os componentes do balanço hídrico com maior incerteza de quantificação. O entendimento da sua disponibilidade ainda é limitado em comparação com outras reservas hídricas como rios, atmosfera, solo e lagos. A busca por esse recurso tem aumentado tanto nas áreas úmidas quanto nas áreas secas. Explorar os processos de interação entre as águas subterrâneas e os rios em aquíferos de grande escala (como o comportamento das reservas em períodos secos, eventos de recarga episódica e variabilidade anual), é de grande interesse para a indústria, a economia e a qualidade de vida da população. O desenvolvimento e a avaliação de ferramentas é um passo inicial para o uso sustentável das águas subterrâneas. O objetivo desta tese é avançar no entendimento de processos hidrogeológicos de grande escala que ocorrem no Brasil em diferentes climas e formações aquíferas a partir de ferramentas inovadoras e complementares de monitoramento in situ, dados de sensoriamento remoto e modelagem hidrológica. Verificou-se que o uso do GRACE para detectar variações nas reservas de água subterrânea para um aquífero sedimentar no semiárido brasileiro apresentou resultados adequados. As reservas de água subterrânea estão entre os componentes do balanço hídrico com maior incerteza de quantificação. O entendimento da sua disponibilidade ainda é limitado em comparação com outras reservas hídricas como rios, atmosfera, solo e lagos. A busca por esse recurso tem aumentado tanto nas áreas úmidas quanto nas áreas secas. Explorar os processos de interação entre as águas subterrâneas e os rios em aquíferos de grande escala (como o comportamento das reservas em períodos secos, eventos de recarga episódica e variabilidade anual), é de grande interesse para a indústria, a economia e a qualidade de vida da população. O desenvolvimento e a avaliação de ferramentas é um passo inicial para o uso sustentável das águas subterrâneas. O objetivo desta tese é avançar no entendimento de processos hidrogeológicos de grande escala que ocorrem no Brasil em diferentes climas e formações aquíferas a partir de ferramentas inovadoras e complementares de monitoramento in situ, dados de sensoriamento remoto e modelagem hidrológica. Verificou-se que o uso do GRACE para detectar variações nas reservas de água subterrânea para um aquífero sedimentar no semiárido brasileiro apresentou resultados adequados.Groundwater volumes are among the water balance components with the greatest uncertainty of quantification, the understanding of its availability is still limited compared to other water reserves such as rivers, atmosphere, soil, and lakes. The search for this continuous supply resource throughout the year has increased in wet and dry areas. Exploring hydrological, hydrogeological, and surface-groundwater interaction processes among these large-scale South American aquifers, such as the dynamics associated with dry periods response, recharge events, and interannual variability, is of great interest to the industry, the economy, and the quality of life of the regional population. And the development and testing of tools for researching these aspects is a primer step for sustainable usage of groundwaters in the South American domain. The main objective of this thesis is to advance in the determination of large-scale hydrogeological process in Brazil, South America in different climates and aquifer formations from innovative and complementary tooling of intensive field monitoring, remote sensing data, and hydrological modeling. We found that the use of GRACE to detect variations in groundwater reserves showed adequate results for a small-scale sedimentary aquifer in the Brazilian semi-arid region. The findings were promising to improve the understanding of droughts at different scales in those areas. GRACE data also showed itself as an essential tool for monitoring groundwater volumes in the other two aquifers in humid subtropical areas and investigated in this thesis (Caiuá Aquifer and SASG). We also found that in those humid subtropical areas, the high soil moisture storage has an important role in the occurrence of large episodic recharge events. Atypical rainfall in winter periods was responsible for the increase in soil moisture that explains the larger events. The changes in aquifer storage caused by episodic recharge events are long-lasting and directly affect low flows in rivers with implications on hydro-climatic variability. We also brought important findings related to groundwater variations in fractured aquifer systems, which are complex to predict. Significant contributions related to groundwater level variations, transit times, regional trends, and interaction with the rivers in the SASG were presented

Understanding Australia’s groundwater spatio-temporal variability in relation to its hydroclimate-hydrogeology

Groundwater is a highly dependent water resource in Australia, yet it is not well understood, leading to different issues from one region to another. Currently, there are four major concerns about Australia’s groundwater; (i) groundwater decline, (ii) necessity of groundwater for agricultural expansion, (iii) data deficiency, and (iv), unclear groundwater recharge threshold conditions. To address these concerns, this thesis, therefore, aims to understand Australia’s spatio-temporal groundwater variation from a hydroclimatic and hydrogeological perspective

Utilization of Remote Sensing Data for Estimation of the Groundwater Storage Variation

Groundwater is the most extracted raw material, with an average withdrawal rate of 982 km3 per year, where 70 percent of the total groundwater withdrawn is used for agriculture globally (Margat & van der Gun, 2013). With climate change and increased water demands in recent years, monitoring the changes in the groundwater storage is of the utmost importance. This thesis presents an analysis that determines the rates, trends, and directions where groundwater storage is going in Pakistan. It also correlates fluctuations in groundwater storage with variations in precipitation and agricultural productivity in the country. The overall objectives of this thesis are to identify the long-term variations in groundwater storage, and examine the impact of precipitation and crop production on the groundwater reserves in Pakistan. In this thesis, The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data are used to estimate changes in groundwater storage for the study period of April 2002 – June 2017. By subtracting the different water subcomponents, i.e. soil moisture and snow water equivalent, derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Noah from the GRACE data products, variations in groundwater storage are estimated. Precipitation data for this study is obtained from the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) CDR system. Agricultural information, which includes the crop water requirement, is derived from CROPWAT, and yield data are obtained from the Bureau of Statistics, Punjab. The results reveal that groundwater storage in Pakistan is declining at a high rate. Over a period of 183 months, Punjab province has observed the highest loss in total volume of groundwater storage (28.2 km3), followed by Balochistan (19.57 km3), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (9.84 km3), and lastly, Sindh (5.46 km3). The results also show that precipitation has a weak positive impact on groundwater storage and soil moisture, depending on the region. Lastly, crop cultivation has had a significant impact on the groundwater withdrawal rates, with amounts varying on a district by district basis. The contributions of this study include a better understanding of variations in the groundwater storage across different provinces in Pakistan, and an analysis of the effect of groundwater changes in relation to crop water demand and precipitation. GRACE data can be used to assess groundwater depletion in areas where groundwater monitoring is not available, as it can help with the evaluation of decreasing trends in groundwater levels. It can also provide policy makers information needed to conserve groundwater resources for future use

Remote Sensing Based Approach to Enhance Food Security in the Greater Horn of Africa

Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), one of the most food-insecure regions in the world, faces acute food insecurity with catastrophic consequences whenever a drought occurs. With climate change impacts and high population growth rate projected to exacerbate the food insecurity situation of the region, this thesis examined agricultural drought and groundwater exploitation (irrigated) related issues to enhance food security. The thesis identified several suitable agricultural drought indicators and explored groundwater irrigation potential for several regions

Assessing Usable Ground and Surface Water Level Correlation Factors in the Western United States

abstract: The Western Continental United States has a rapidly changing and complex ecosystem that provides valuable resources to a large portion of the nation. Changes in social and environmental factors have been observed to be significantly correlated to usable ground and surface water levels. The assessment of water level changes and their influences on a semi-national level is needed to support planning and decision making for water resource management at local levels. Although many studies have been done in Ground and Surface Water (GSW) trend analysis, very few have attempted determine correlations with other factors. The number of studies done on correlation factors at a semi-national scale and near decadal temporal scale is even fewer. In this study, freshwater resources in GSW changes from 2004 to 2017 were quantified and used to determine if and how environmental and social variables are related to GSW changes using publicly available remotely sensed and census data. Results indicate that mean annual changes of GSW of the study period are significantly correlated with LULC changes related to deforestation, urbanization, environmental trends, as well as social variables. Further analysis indicates a strong correlation in the rate of change of GSW to LULC changes related to deforestation, environmental trends, as well as social variables. GSW slope trend analysis also reveals a negative trend in California, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Whereas a positive GSW trend is evident in the northeast part of the study area. GSW trends were found to be somewhat consistent in the states of Utah, Idaho, and Colorado, implying that there was no GSW changes over time in these states.Dissertation/ThesisMasters Thesis Geography 201

Developing a preliminary recharge model of the Nile Basin to help interpret GRACE data

GRACE data provides a new and exciting opportunity to gain a direct and independent measure of water mass variation on a regional scale, but the data must be combined with hydrological modelling to indicate in which part of the water cycle the mass change has occurred. Processing GRACE data through a series of spectral filters indicates a seasonal variation to gravity mass (±0.005 mGal) thought to relate to the downstream movement of water in the catchment, and delayed storage from groundwater, following the wet season in the upper catchment. To help interpret these data a groundwater recharge model was developed for the Nile Catchment using the model ZOODRM (a distributed modelling code for calculating spatial and temporal variations in groundwater recharge). ZOODRM was an appropriate model to use for this work, due to the lower data demands of the model, relative to other groundwater models, the ability of the model to use entirely remotely-sensed input data, and the added functionality of runoff routing. Rainfall (NOAA data) and ET data were sourced from the FEWS NET African Data Dissemination Service. Geological data was sourced from the digital geology map of the world, landuse data from the USGS and the DEM data from ESRI. Initial model results indicate groundwater recharge across the basin of 0-4mma-1, with obvious considerable spatial variability. The results indicate the importance of groundwater in storing rainfall, and releasing it slowly throughout the year in different parts of the catchment. Only by modelling this process can GRACE data be reliably interpreted hydrologically. Despite only a qualitative interpretation of the GRACE data having been achieved within this preliminary study, the work has indicated that the ZOODRM model can be used with entirely remotely-sensed data, and that sufficient data exists for the Nile Basin to construct a plausible recharge model. Future work is now required to properly calibrate the model to enable closer comparison of the Nile GRACE data

Amélioration et désagrégation des données GRACE et GRACE-FO pour l’estimation des variations de stock d’eau terrestre et d’eau souterraine à fine échelle

Abstract : Groundwater is an essential natural resource for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses worldwide. Unfortunately, climate change, excess withdrawal, population growth and other human impacts can affect its dynamics and availability. These excessive demands can lead to lower groundwater levels and depletion of aquifers, and potentially to increased water scarcity. Despite the abundance of lakes and rivers in many parts of Canada, the potential depletion of groundwater remains a major concern, particularly in the southern Prairie. Groundwater is traditionally monitored through in-situ piezometric wells, which are scarcely distributed in Canada and many parts of the world. Consequently, its quantities, distribution and availability are not well known, both spatially and temporally. Fortunately, the launch of the twin satellite systems of Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) in 2002 and its successor, GRACE Follow-On in 2018 (GRACE-FO) opened up new ways to study groundwater changes. These platforms measure the variations of the Earth's gravity field, which in turn can be related to terrestrial water storage (TWS). The main objective of this thesis is to improve the estimation and spatial resolution of TWS and related groundwater storage changes (GWS), using GRACE and GRACE-FO data. This challenge was addressed through four specific objectives, where original approaches were developed in each case. The first objective was to understand and better take into account the uncertainties associated with the hydrological models (the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and the Water Global Assessment Prognosis hydrological model (WGHM)), generally used in the processing of GRACE or GRACE-FO data. The thesis proposes a new approach based on the Gauss-Markov model to estimate the optimal hydrological parameters from GLDAS, considering six different surface schemes. The Förstner estimator and the best quadratic unbiased estimator of the variance components were used with a least-squares method to estimate the optimal hydrological parameters and their errors. The comparison of the optimal TWS derived from GLDAS to the TWS derived from WGHM showed a very significant correlation of r = 0.91. The correlation obtained with GRACE was r = 0.71, which increased to r = 0.81 when the groundwater component was removed from GRACE. Compared to WGHM and GRACE, the optimal TWS calculated from GLDAS had much smaller errors (RMSE = 7 to 8.5 mm) than those obtained when individual surface schemes are considered (RMSE = 10 to 21 mm); demonstrating the performance of the proposed approach. The second specific objective was to understand regional variations in TWS and their uncertainties. The approach was applied over the Canadian landmass. To achieve the goal, the thesis proposes a new modeling of glacial isostatic adjustment uplift (GIA) in Canada. The comparison of the results of the proposed model and three other existing models with data from 149 very high precision GPS stations demonstrated its superiority in the region considered. The regional approach proposed was then used to extract TWS by correcting the effects of the GIA and leakage. The analyzes showed patterns of significant seasonal variations in TWS, with values ranging between -160 mm and 80 mm. Overall TWS showed a positive slope of temporal variations over the Canadian landmass (+ 6.6 mm/year) with GRACE and GRACE-FO combined. The slope reached up to 45 mm/year in the Hudson Bay region. The third objective was to extract GWS component using a comprehensive rigorous approach to reconstruct, refine and map the variations of GWS and its associated uncertainties. The approach used the methods proposed in the two previous objectives. Moreover, a new filtering approach called Gaussian-Han-Fan (GHF) was developed and integrated into the process in order to have a more robust procedure for extracting information from GRACE and GRACE-FO data. The performance and merits of the proposed filter compared to previous filters were analyzed. Then, the groundwater signal was reconstructed by taking into account all the other components, including surface water variations (estimated using satellite altimetry data). The results showed that the average variations of GWS are between -200 mm and +230 mm in the Canadian Prairies. The maximum and minimum GWS trends were found around the Hudson Bay region (approximately 55 mm/year) and southern Prairies (approximately -20 mm/year), respectively. The error on GWS was around 10% (about 19 mm). The estimated GWS changes were validated using the data from 116 in-situ wells. This validation showed a significant level of correlation (r > |0.70|, P |0.90|, P |0,70|, P |0,90|, P < 10-4, RMSE < 30 mm). Enfin, le dernier objectif consistait à améliorer la résolution spatiale des résultats extraits des données GRACE de 1° à 0.25°. Ainsi, une nouvelle approche basée sur l'ajustement des conditions a d’abord été proposée pour estimer les paramètres hydrologiques optimaux et leurs erreurs. Elle est légèrement différente de la méthode proposée dans le premier objectif. Ensuite, les corrections requises pour extraire les anomalies de TWS et ses incertitudes de manière rigoureuse ont été effectuées suivant la méthodologie présentée à l’objectif 3. Par la suite une nouvelle méthode basée sur la combinaison spectrale-spatiale a été développée pour dériver les anomalies de TWS à échelle réduite (0.25°), en combinant de manière optimale les modèles GRACE et les paramètres hydrologiques. Enfin, les anomalies d’eau souterraines ont été dérivées en utilisant les anomalies de TWS estimées. Les validations ont été faites à partir des données de 75 puits en aquifère non confiné en Alberta. Elles démontrent le potentiel de l’approche proposée avec une corrélation très significative de = 0.80 et un RMSE de 11 mm. Ainsi, la recherche proposée dans la thèse a permis de faire des avancées importantes dans l’extraction d’information sur le stockage total d’eau et les eaux souterraines à partir des données des satellites gravimétriques GRACE et GRACE-FO. Elle propose et valide plusieurs nouvelles approches originales en s’appuyant sur des données in-situ. Elle ouvre également plusieurs nouvelles avenues de recherche, qui permettront de faciliter une utilisation plus opérationnelle de ces types de données à l’échelle régionale, voire locale

Basin-scale, integrated observations of the early 21st century multiyear drought in southeast Australia

The Murray-Darling Basin in southeast Australia is experiencing one of the most severe droughts observed recently in the world, driven by several years of rainfall deficits and record high temperatures. This paper provides new basin‐scale observations of the multiyear drought, integrated to a degree rarely achieved on such a large scale, to assess the response of water resources and the severity of the drought. A combination of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with in situ and modeled hydrological data shows the propagation of the water deficit through the hydrological cycle and the rise of different types of drought. Our observations show the rapid drying of soil moisture and surface water storages, which reached near‐stationary low levels only ∼2 years after the onset of the drought in 2001, with a loss of ∼80 and ∼12 km3 between January 2001 and January 2003, respectively. The multiyear drought has led to the almost complete drying of surface water resources which account for most of the water used for irrigation and domestic purposes. High correlation between observed groundwater variations and GRACE data substantiates the persistent reduction in groundwater storage, with groundwater levels still declining 6 years after the onset of the drought (groundwater loss of ∼104 km3 between 2001 and 2007). The hydrological drought continues even though the region returned to average annual rainfall during 2007