A survey of AI in operations management from 2005 to 2009

Purpose: the use of AI for operations management, with its ability to evolve solutions, handle uncertainty and perform optimisation continues to be a major field of research. The growing body of publications over the last two decades means that it can be difficult to keep track of what has been done previously, what has worked, and what really needs to be addressed. Hence this paper presents a survey of the use of AI in operations management aimed at presenting the key research themes, trends and directions of research. Design/methodology/approach: the paper builds upon our previous survey of this field which was carried out for the ten-year period 1995-2004. Like the previous survey, it uses Elsevier’s Science Direct database as a source. The framework and methodology adopted for the survey is kept as similar as possible to enable continuity and comparison of trends. Thus, the application categories adopted are: design; scheduling; process planning and control; and quality, maintenance and fault diagnosis. Research on utilising neural networks, case-based reasoning (CBR), fuzzy logic (FL), knowledge-Based systems (KBS), data mining, and hybrid AI in the four application areas are identified. Findings: the survey categorises over 1,400 papers, identifying the uses of AI in the four categories of operations management and concludes with an analysis of the trends, gaps and directions for future research. The findings include: the trends for design and scheduling show a dramatic increase in the use of genetic algorithms since 2003 that reflect recognition of their success in these areas; there is a significant decline in research on use of KBS, reflecting their transition into practice; there is an increasing trend in the use of FL in quality, maintenance and fault diagnosis; and there are surprising gaps in the use of CBR and hybrid methods in operations management that offer opportunities for future research. Design/methodology/approach: the paper builds upon our previous survey of this field which was carried out for the 10 year period 1995 to 2004 (Kobbacy et al. 2007). Like the previous survey, it uses the Elsevier’s ScienceDirect database as a source. The framework and methodology adopted for the survey is kept as similar as possible to enable continuity and comparison of trends. Thus the application categories adopted are: (a) design, (b) scheduling, (c) process planning and control and (d) quality, maintenance and fault diagnosis. Research on utilising neural networks, case based reasoning, fuzzy logic, knowledge based systems, data mining, and hybrid AI in the four application areas are identified. Findings: The survey categorises over 1400 papers, identifying the uses of AI in the four categories of operations management and concludes with an analysis of the trends, gaps and directions for future research. The findings include: (a) The trends for Design and Scheduling show a dramatic increase in the use of GAs since 2003-04 that reflect recognition of their success in these areas, (b) A significant decline in research on use of KBS, reflecting their transition into practice, (c) an increasing trend in the use of fuzzy logic in Quality, Maintenance and Fault Diagnosis, (d) surprising gaps in the use of CBR and hybrid methods in operations management that offer opportunities for future research. Originality/value: This is the largest and most comprehensive study to classify research on the use of AI in operations management to date. The survey and trends identified provide a useful reference point and directions for future research

Modelling performance in a Balanced Scorecard : findings from a case study

Cet article s'intéresse à la mise en place de l'approche dite du "Balanced Scorecards" dans des unités opérationnelles plutôt qu'au niveau d'une direction générale. Il s'appuie sur une étude de cas. On propose de traiter les questions relatives à la coordination, à la fixation des objectifs et au contrôle en s'appuyant sur une méthodologie originale pour construire le modèle d'interaction entre les différentes entités de l'organisation. Cette méthodologie fait une part importante à l'apprentissage organisationnel permettant ainsi une compréhension mutuelle des degrés de liberté individuels et une meilleure observation réciproque. Cette approche "horizontale" est mieux adaptée à ce type de contexte que l'approche "verticale" plus traditionnelle du BCS.Pilotage;Tableaux de bord;Incitations;Apprentissage organisationnel

UK energy strategies under uncertainty: synthesis report

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The impact of macroeconomic leading indicators on inventory management

Forecasting tactical sales is important for long term decisions such as procurement and informing lower level inventory management decisions. Macroeconomic indicators have been shown to improve the forecast accuracy at tactical level, as these indicators can provide early warnings of changing markets while at the same time tactical sales are sufficiently aggregated to facilitate the identification of useful leading indicators. Past research has shown that we can achieve significant gains by incorporating such information. However, at lower levels, that inventory decisions are taken, this is often not feasible due to the level of noise in the data. To take advantage of macroeconomic leading indicators at this level we need to translate the tactical forecasts into operational level ones. In this research we investigate how to best assimilate top level forecasts that incorporate such exogenous information with bottom level (at Stock Keeping Unit level) extrapolative forecasts. The aim is to demonstrate whether incorporating these variables has a positive impact on bottom level planning and eventually inventory levels. We construct appropriate hierarchies of sales and use that structure to reconcile the forecasts, and in turn the different available information, across levels. We are interested both at the point forecast and the prediction intervals, as the latter inform safety stock decisions. Therefore the contribution of this research is twofold. We investigate the usefulness of macroeconomic leading indicators for SKU level forecasts and alternative ways to estimate the variance of hierarchically reconciled forecasts. We provide evidence using a real case study

D1.1 DEMAND ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK

This report proposes the initial draft of the LeADS ADS Framework composed by three major elements; identification and definition of technologies in scope; skills included under those technologies, and definition of job roles, where other skills frameworks are considered for comparison and alignment. The report summarises the first workshop held by the project with external constituencies even though the feedback will be incorporated in the final version of the framework, where the layer of job roles will be completed, and the others revised according to additional input. This framework serves as reference for the next step in LeADS: the assessment of the demand and the supply

How to Make the Most Productive Intervention in a Complex Economic System

Information about supply and demand propagates through supply chains in a queueing network with people and computers as batch information processors. As each batch processor delays propagation of information whilst pursuing optimal local decisions, the effect is delay and distortion of the information that is used to commit resources to actions in the supply chain. This thesis investigates the effect of delay and imperfect information as a source of error, to establish the case for change in research focus from optimal exploitation of physical constraints to optimal exploitation of information. In the context of real world supply chains, the thesis asks "How does one make the most productive intervention in a complex economic system?" and pursues a meta-intervention which perpetually minimises the discovered error-term. Evidence from literature indicates that agent-based modelling permits real-time peer-to-peer communication and distributed optimisation. Based on the literature the research project designs and develops an agent-based model which operates in real-time without batch-processes and can perform incremental multi-objective optimisation under realistic (chronologically progressive) conditions for decision making. The agent based model is then used to investigate two real-world supply chains, as case studies, which reveals a significant improvement of profitability and order-fulfilment. The thesis concludes that agent-based modelling is a very promising direction for "making the most productive intervention" as it reduces delay to a minimum. Finally it recommends that continuous improvement of decision making methods is a role better suited for humans, rather than operational decision making where computers cope much better with the high amount of detailed information

Supply chain business modelling

The developed work is motivated by the hypothesis that the presented Supply Chain Business Model is a practical and comprehensive approach to support not only operational day-to-day business decisions, but most importantly strategic and long term decisions that may define the success and the longevity of a business. Conceptually, the Business Supply Chain Model developed in this thesis replicates the behaviour and decision making of the different agents in a supply chain, and an Optimisation Module determines the optimised parameters that maximise the overall business profit, whatever scenario it may be. In the optimisation module, a Genetic Algorithm was used to determine the best equation parameters for each individual agent that optimise the overall supply chain profit. Furthermore, several business case-scenarios are presented and the findings highlighted. These case-scenarios prove that: the HC model is robust when subjected to predictable or unpredictable causes of variability; the bullwhip effect can be reduced significantly by applying GA as the optimisation tool; the improvement of profits needs to be evaluated at a global scale, independently of the individual agents’ profit; impact of supply shortages in the SC ; retail expansion analysis; delivery patterns change impact in profitability; impact of sourcing decisions in the SC profitability; model suitability for seasonal vs. non-seasonal products. The SC Modelling framework generic and globalising approach means that is easily applied and transposed to any other business realities and it can be easily changed to reflect other SC scenarios. The costing model associated means that, at any point in the network, all costs and profits can be easily measured. For the first time the shelf-life of a product captured and losses of product due to BBE dates, quantified. In this model the optimisation methodology runs parallel to the developed simulation tool, so the optimisation should be only run for new scenarios

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice

OR in Spare Parts Management:A Review

Abstract Spare parts are held to reduce the consequences of equipment downtime, playing an important role in achieving the desired equipment availability at a minimum economic cost. In this paper, a framework for OR in spare parts management is presented, based on the product lifecycle process and including the objectives, main tasks, and OR disciplines for supporting spare parts management. Based on the framework, a systematic literature review of OR in spare parts management is undertaken, and then a comprehensive investigation of each OR discipline's contribution is given. The gap between theory and practice of spare parts management is investigated from the perspective of software integration, maintenance management information systems and adoption of new OR methods in software. Finally, as the result of this review, an extended version of the framework is proposed and a set of future research directions is discussed