A Dynamic Look at Subprime Loan Performance

Does delinquency have any predictive power for the future performance of a mortgage? Analysis of a sample of subprime mortgages from the Loanperformance database on securitized private-label pool collateral using a two-step estimation procedure to control for the endogeneity of delinquency reveals strong support for the distressed prepayment theory that very delinquent loans are more likely to prepay than to default and that prepayment rates increase substantially as delinquency intensity increases. While delinquency leads predominantly to termination of a loan through prepayment, negative equity leads to termination through default. Does delinquency have any predictive power for the future performance of a mortgage? Analysis of a sample of subprime mortgages from the Loanperformance database on securitized private-label pool collateral using a two-step estimation procedure to control for the endogeneity of delinquency reveals strong support for the distressed prepayment theory that very delinquent loans are more likely to prepay than to default and that prepayment rates increase substantially as delinquency intensity increases. While delinquency leads predominantly to termination of a loan through prepayment, negative equity leads to termination through default

A dynamic look at subprime loan performance

This paper examines the implications of delinquency on the performance of subprime mortgages. Specifically, we examine whether delinquency has any predictive power of the future performance of a mortgage. Using a sample of subprime mortgages from the Loan performance database on securitized private-label pool collateral, we utilize a two-step estimation procedure to control for the endogeneity of delinquency in an estimation of default and prepayment probabilities. We find strong support for the *distressed prepayment* theory that very delinquent loans are more likely to prepay than to default and that the rate of increase of prepayment is substantially larger as delinquency intensity increases. Delinquency predominately leads to termination of a loan through prepayment while negative equity leads to termination through default.Mortgages

The Juvenile Offender - Where can we send him?

There is an increased problem in American society regarding juvenile delinquents. Persons less than 16 years of age cannot be adjudicated criminals and nearly 80% of persons convicted of serious crimes a adults were previous convicted of a lesser offense. However, these criminals were only previously considered juvenile delinquents and not adjudicated criminals. Rehabilitation has been the main focus when dealing with juvenile delinquency and juvenile courts have operated under the theory of \u27best interests of the child\u27 and \u27parens patriae\u27. Unfortunately, family court hearings used to determine juvenile delinquency now contain the stigma of criminal proceedings rendering the theory of juvenile courts nearly dead. The problem is caused by these courts\u27 inability to carry out their purposes and many new solutions are being proposed to fight this issue. Community based rehabilitation centers, quasi-judicial panels, expanding categories of juvenile delinquency, and creating more appropriate placement facilities are all proposed plans. While there are budgetary concerns, it is essential to proceed to try and solve the problem while keeping the best interests of the child at heart

Sociological and Human Developmental Explanations of Crime: Conflict or Consensus

This paper examines multidisciplinary correlates of delinquency in an attempt to integrate sociological and environmental theories of crime with human developmental and biological explanations of crime. Structural equation models are applied to assess links among biological, psychological, and environmental variables collected prospectively from birth through age 17 on a sample of 800 black children at high risk for learning and behavioral disorders. Results show that for both males and females, aggression and disciplinary problems in school during adolescence are the strongest predictors of repeat offense behavior. Whereas school achievement and family income and stability are also significant predictors of delinquency for males, early physical development is the next strongest predictor for females. Results indicate that some effects on delinquency also vary during different ages. It is suggested that behavioral and learning disorders have both sociological and developmental correlates and that adequate educational resources are necessary to ensure channels of legitimate opportunities for high-risk youths

JJDP Monitoring Data — 1988: JJDP Violations and Juvenile Detention Counts for Lockups, Jails, Adult Correctional Facilities and Juvenile Detention Centers

This data supplement to the 1988 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Compliance Monitoring Report (Mar 1990) presents data on 1988 violations in Alaska of the Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act (JJDPA), which mandates removal of status offenders and nonoffenders from secure detention and correctional facilities, sight and sound separation of juveniles and adults, and removal of juveniles from adult jails and lockups.Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, Division of Family and Youth ServicesJJDP Violations — 1988 / Offense Type by Duration of Detention — 1988 / All Facilities / Lockups / Jails / Correctional and Youth Facilitie

Perceived Community Cohesion and the Stress Process in Youth

Using survey data from two youth samples, one rural and one urban, we examine the role and significance of perceived community cohesion in the stress process. In particular, we assess the extent to which community attachment and detachment are related to depressed mood, problem substance use, and delinquency net of social statuses, stress exposure, and personal attributes. In addition, we explore the degree to which those dimensions of community cohesion explain or condition the links between the above stress-process components (e.g., social statuses, stress exposure, and personal attributes) and well-being. We find remarkably similar results across samples: community attachment is related to lower odds of problem substance use and delinquency; community detachment is related to higher levels of depressed mood, problem substance use, and delinquency; and community attachment buffers the link between stress and problem substance use. With respect to depressed mood, however, the rural youth show greater vulnerability to stress than the urban youth and unique benefits from community attachment compared to the latter. Our findings highlight the roles of community attachment and detachment in the stress process and underscore the importance of each for youth well-being in rural and urban settings

The Effect of Early Noncognitive Skills on Social Outcomes in Adolescence

This paper investigates the impact of early noncognitive skills on social outcomes in adolescence. The child's attention span, approach, prevailing mood and distractibility in early childhood may be crucial predictors for school achievements, health risk behavior, delinquency and autonomy as adolescent. We investigate this issue using a longitudinal epidemiological cohort study of 384 children at risk from the Rhine-Neckar Region in Germany. Our results indicate that noncognitive skills in early childhood are important predictors of educational success, tobacco and alcohol use, delinquency and autonomy in adolescence. In particular, the attention span has emerged as a dominant factor among noncognitive skills regarding educational performance, health behavior and delinquency in our study. Further, we find that boys with low noncognitive skills have significantly lower social outcomes compared to girls. --noncognitive skills,early childhood,risk factors,social outcomes

Patterns of Homeownership, Delinquency, and Foreclosure Among Youngest Baby Boomers

[Excerpt] This analysis considers the patterns of homeownership, delinquency, and foreclosure over this turbulent period in the housing market for a cohort of Americans born in the years1957 to 1964, the latter years of the “baby boom” that occurred in the United States from 1946 to 1964. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79), this article shows the patterns of home-ownership over a 20-year period, from 1988 through 2008. Respondents were ages 23 to 31 at the start of this period and ages 43 to 51 at the end. In addition, it examines transitions in homeownership between 2008 and 2010, as well as patterns of delinquency and foreclosure over the period from 2007 to 2010

Home Ownership Risk Beyond a Subprime Crisis: The Role of Delinquency Management

A surge in delinquency among risky subprime home mortgages has produced calls for front-end regulatory fixes as well as emergency foreclosure avoidance interventions. Whatever the merit of those interventions, this Essay calls for home mortgage delinquency management to be conceptualized as an enduring component of housing policy. The Essay identifies and evaluates a framework for the management of delinquency that is not limited to formal foreclosure law and includes other debtor-creditor laws such as bankruptcy, industry loss mitigation efforts, and third-party interventions such as delinquency housing counseling. The Essay also proposes that delinquency management be evaluated through the lens of objectives commonly used to justify public investment in home ownership and home mortgage markets: to build household wealth and economic self-sufficiency, to generate positive social-psychological states, and to develop stable neighborhoods and communities. Because those ends are not inexorably linked to ownership generally or owning a particular home, a system of delinquency management that honors these objectives should strive to provide fair, transparent, humane, and predictable strategies for home exit as well as for home retention