23,667 research outputs found
Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction
Traditional crime prediction models based on census data are limited, as they
fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of human activity. With the rise of
ubiquitous computing, there is the opportunity to improve such models with data
that make for better proxies of human presence in cities. In this paper, we
leverage large human mobility data to craft an extensive set of features for
crime prediction, as informed by theories in criminology and urban studies. We
employ averaging and boosting ensemble techniques from machine learning, to
investigate their power in predicting yearly counts for different types of
crimes occurring in New York City at census tract level. Our study shows that
spatial and spatio-temporal features derived from Foursquare venues and
checkins, subway rides, and taxi rides, improve the baseline models relying on
census and POI data. The proposed models achieve absolute R^2 metrics of up to
65% (on a geographical out-of-sample test set) and up to 89% (on a temporal
out-of-sample test set). This proves that, next to the residential population
of an area, the ambient population there is strongly predictive of the area's
crime levels. We deep-dive into the main crime categories, and find that the
predictive gain of the human dynamics features varies across crime types: such
features bring the biggest boost in case of grand larcenies, whereas assaults
are already well predicted by the census features. Furthermore, we identify and
discuss top predictive features for the main crime categories. These results
offer valuable insights for those responsible for urban policy or law
enforcement
Deep Gravity: enhancing mobility flows generation with deep neural networks and geographic information
The movements of individuals within and among cities influence key aspects of
our society, such as the objective and subjective well-being, the diffusion of
innovations, the spreading of epidemics, and the quality of the environment.
For this reason, there is increasing interest around the challenging problem of
flow generation, which consists in generating the flows between a set of
geographic locations, given the characteristics of the locations and without
any information about the real flows. Existing solutions to flow generation are
mainly based on mechanistic approaches, such as the gravity model and the
radiation model, which suffer from underfitting and overdispersion, neglect
important variables such as land use and the transportation network, and cannot
describe non-linear relationships between these variables. In this paper, we
propose the Multi-Feature Deep Gravity (MFDG) model as an effective solution to
flow generation. On the one hand, the MFDG model exploits a large number of
variables (e.g., characteristics of land use and the road network; transport,
food, and health facilities) extracted from voluntary geographic information
data (OpenStreetMap). On the other hand, our model exploits deep neural
networks to describe complex non-linear relationships between those variables.
Our experiments, conducted on commuting flows in England, show that the MFDG
model achieves a significant increase in the performance (up to 250\% for
highly populated areas) than mechanistic models that do not use deep neural
networks, or that do not exploit geographic voluntary data. Our work presents a
precise definition of the flow generation problem, which is a novel task for
the deep learning community working with spatio-temporal data, and proposes a
deep neural network model that significantly outperforms current
state-of-the-art statistical models
An Interdisciplinary Survey on Origin-destination Flows Modeling: Theory and Techniques
Origin-destination~(OD) flow modeling is an extensively researched subject
across multiple disciplines, such as the investigation of travel demand in
transportation and spatial interaction modeling in geography. However,
researchers from different fields tend to employ their own unique research
paradigms and lack interdisciplinary communication, preventing the
cross-fertilization of knowledge and the development of novel solutions to
challenges. This article presents a systematic interdisciplinary survey that
comprehensively and holistically scrutinizes OD flows from utilizing
fundamental theory to studying the mechanism of population mobility and solving
practical problems with engineering techniques, such as computational models.
Specifically, regional economics, urban geography, and sociophysics are adept
at employing theoretical research methods to explore the underlying mechanisms
of OD flows. They have developed three influential theoretical models: the
gravity model, the intervening opportunities model, and the radiation model.
These models specifically focus on examining the fundamental influences of
distance, opportunities, and population on OD flows, respectively. In the
meantime, fields such as transportation, urban planning, and computer science
primarily focus on addressing four practical problems: OD prediction, OD
construction, OD estimation, and OD forecasting. Advanced computational models,
such as deep learning models, have gradually been introduced to address these
problems more effectively. Finally, based on the existing research, this survey
summarizes current challenges and outlines future directions for this topic.
Through this survey, we aim to break down the barriers between disciplines in
OD flow-related research, fostering interdisciplinary perspectives and modes of
thinking.Comment: 49 pages, 6 figure
Privacy-Preserving Individual-Level COVID-19 Infection Prediction via Federated Graph Learning
Accurately predicting individual-level infection state is of great value
since its essential role in reducing the damage of the epidemic. However, there
exists an inescapable risk of privacy leakage in the fine-grained user mobility
trajectories required by individual-level infection prediction. In this paper,
we focus on developing a framework of privacy-preserving individual-level
infection prediction based on federated learning (FL) and graph neural networks
(GNN). We propose Falcon, a Federated grAph Learning method for
privacy-preserving individual-level infeCtion predictiON. It utilizes a novel
hypergraph structure with spatio-temporal hyperedges to describe the complex
interactions between individuals and locations in the contagion process. By
organically combining the FL framework with hypergraph neural networks, the
information propagation process of the graph machine learning is able to be
divided into two stages distributed on the server and the clients,
respectively, so as to effectively protect user privacy while transmitting
high-level information. Furthermore, it elaborately designs a differential
privacy perturbation mechanism as well as a plausible pseudo location
generation approach to preserve user privacy in the graph structure. Besides,
it introduces a cooperative coupling mechanism between the individual-level
prediction model and an additional region-level model to mitigate the
detrimental impacts caused by the injected obfuscation mechanisms. Extensive
experimental results show that our methodology outperforms state-of-the-art
algorithms and is able to protect user privacy against actual privacy attacks.
Our code and datasets are available at the link:
https://github.com/wjfu99/FL-epidemic.Comment: accepted by TOI
Urban traffic flow prediction, a spatial-temporal approach
Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial TechnologiesCurrent advances in computational technologies such as machine learning combined with traffic data availability are inspiring the development and growth of intelligent transport Systems (ITS). As urban authorities strive for efficient traffic systems, traffic forecasting is a vital element for effective control and management of traffic networks. Traffic forecasting methods have progressed from traditional statistical techniques to optimized data driven methods eulogised with artificial intelligence. Today, most techniques in traffic forecasting are mainly timeseries methods that ignore the spatial impact of traffic networks in traffic flow modelling. The consideration of both spatial and temporal dimensions in traffic forecasting efforts is key to achieving inclusive traffic forecasts. This research paper presents approaches to analyse spatial temporal patterns existing in networks and goes on to use a machine learning model that integrates both spatial and temporal dependency in traffic flow prediction. The application of the model to a traffic dataset for the city of Singapore shows that we can accurately predict traffic flow up to 15 minutes in advance and also accuracy results obtained outperform other classical traffic prediction methods
Strategic Knowledge Measurement and Management
Knowledge and intellectual capital are now recognized as vital resources for organizational survival and competitive advantage. A vast array of knowledge measures has evolved, spanning many disciplines. This chapter reviews knowledge measures focusing on groups of individuals (such as teams, business and organizations), as they reflect the stock or flow of knowledge, as well as enabling processes that enhance knowledge stocks and flows. The chapter emphasizes the importance of organizational value chains, pivotal talent pools and the link between knowledge and competitive success, in understanding the significance of today’s knowledge measures, and opportunities for future research and practice to enhance them
Optimal power tracking for autonomous demand side management of electric vehicles
Increasing electric vehicle penetration leads to undesirable peaks in power if no proper coordination in charging is implemented. We tested the feasibility of electric vehicles acting as flexible demands responding to power signals to minimize the system peaks. The proposed hierarchical autonomous demand side management algorithm is formulated as an optimal power tracking problem. The distribution grid operator determines a power signal for filling the valleys in the non-electric vehicle load profile using the electric vehicle demand flexibility and sends it to all electric vehicle controllers. After receiving the control signal, each electric vehicle controller re-scales it to the expected individual electric vehicle energy demand and determines the optimal charging schedule to track the re-scaled signal. No information concerning the electric vehicles are reported back to the utility, hence the approach can be implemented using unidirectional communication with reduced infrastructural requirements. The achieved results show that the optimal power tracking approach has the potential to eliminate additional peak demands induced by electric vehicle charging and performs comparably to its central implementation. The reduced complexity and computational overhead permits also convenient deployment in practice.publishedVersio
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