Multimodal Generative Models for Bankruptcy Prediction Using Textual Data

Textual data from financial filings, e.g., the Management's Discussion & Analysis (MDA) section in Form 10-K, has been used to improve the prediction accuracy of bankruptcy models. In practice, however, we cannot obtain the MDA section for all public companies, which limits the use of MDA data in traditional bankruptcy models, as they need complete data to make predictions. The two main reasons for the lack of MDA are: (i) not all companies are obliged to submit the MDA and (ii) technical problems arise when crawling and scrapping the MDA section. To solve this limitation, this research introduces the Conditional Multimodal Discriminative (CMMD) model that learns multimodal representations that embed information from accounting, market, and textual data modalities. The CMMD model needs a sample with all data modalities for model training. At test time, the CMMD model only needs access to accounting and market modalities to generate multimodal representations, which are further used to make bankruptcy predictions and to generate words from the missing MDA modality. With this novel methodology, it is realistic to use textual data in bankruptcy prediction models, since accounting and market data are available for all companies, unlike textual data. The empirical results of this research show that if financial regulators, or investors, were to use traditional models using MDA data, they would only be able to make predictions for 60% of the companies. Furthermore, the classification performance of our proposed methodology is superior to that of a large number of traditional classifier models, taking into account all the companies in our sample

Machine Learning in Management Accounting Research : Literature Review and Pathways for the Future

This paper explores the possibilities of employing machine learning (ML) methods and new data sources in management accounting (MA) research. A review of current accounting and related research reveals that ML methods in MA are still in their infancy. However, a review of recently published ML research from related fields reveals several new opportunities to utilize ML in MA research. We suggest that the most promising areas to employ ML methods in MA research lie in (1) the exploitation of the rich potential of various textual data sources; (2) the quantification of qualitative and unstructured data to create new measures; (3) the creation of better estimates and predictions; and (4) the use of explainable AI to interpret ML models in detail. ML methods can play a crucial role in MA research by creating, developing, and refining theories through induction and abduction, as well as by providing tools for interventionist studies.© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis: Problems, Methods, Spotlights and Applications

Enterprise financial risk analysis aims at predicting the enterprises' future financial risk.Due to the wide application, enterprise financial risk analysis has always been a core research issue in finance. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on risk management, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in enterprise financial risk analysis. Due to the rapid expansion of the enterprise financial risk analysis, especially from the computer science and big data perspective, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing enterprise financial risk researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies of enterprise financial risk analysis in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. This paper provides a systematic literature review of over 300 articles published on enterprise risk analysis modelling over a 50-year period, 1968 to 2022. We first introduce the formal definition of enterprise risk as well as the related concepts. Then, we categorized the representative works in terms of risk type and summarized the three aspects of risk analysis. Finally, we compared the analysis methods used to model the enterprise financial risk. Our goal is to clarify current cutting-edge research and its possible future directions to model enterprise risk, aiming to fully understand the mechanisms of enterprise risk communication and influence and its application on corporate governance, financial institution and government regulation

Multimodal Document Analytics for Banking Process Automation

In response to growing FinTech competition and the need for improved operational efficiency, this research focuses on understanding the potential of advanced document analytics, particularly using multimodal models, in banking processes. We perform a comprehensive analysis of the diverse banking document landscape, highlighting the opportunities for efficiency gains through automation and advanced analytics techniques in the customer business. Building on the rapidly evolving field of natural language processing (NLP), we illustrate the potential of models such as LayoutXLM, a cross-lingual, multimodal, pre-trained model, for analyzing diverse documents in the banking sector. This model performs a text token classification on German company register extracts with an overall F1 score performance of around 80\%. Our empirical evidence confirms the critical role of layout information in improving model performance and further underscores the benefits of integrating image information. Interestingly, our study shows that over 75% F1 score can be achieved with only 30% of the training data, demonstrating the efficiency of LayoutXLM. Through addressing state-of-the-art document analysis frameworks, our study aims to enhance process efficiency and demonstrate the real-world applicability and benefits of multimodal models within banking.Comment: A Preprin

Bankruptcy in Indian Private Sector Banks: A Neural Network Analysis

This paper aims to predict the bankruptcy in Indian private banks using financial ratios such as ROA, GNPA, EPS, PAT, and GNP of the country. This paper also explains the importance of Ohlson’s number, Graham’s number and Zmijewski number as the major predictors of bankruptcy while developing a model using neural networks. For the prediction, the financial data for private sector banks of India such as HDFC, HDFC, ICICI, AXIS, YES bank, KOTAK MAHINDRA Bank, FEDERAL BANK, INDUSIND Bank, RBL and KARUR VYSYA for the last 10 years from 2010-2019 have been analysed. The model developed during the research will help the financial institutions and banks in India to understand the economic condition of the banking industry

Non-conventional data and default prediction: the challenge of companies’ websites

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) contribution to the European Union economy has always been relevant, for both value added and the creation of jobs. That is why the prediction of their survival is considered one of the economic pillars UE keeps under observation. Default prediction models, accounting for SMEs idiosyncratic traits, are based on several types of data, mainly accounting indicators. Balance sheet data, indeed, are considered the standard predictors for classification models in this field, although they do not allow to completely overcome the information opacity that is one of the main barriers preventing these firms from accessing credit. In our work, we explore the possibility of complementing accounting information with data scraped from the firms’ websites. We modeled the data using a nonlinear discriminant analysis and we benchmarked the results with the Logistic Regression. The evidence of our study is promising although the combination of online and offline data shows better results in case of survival firms than for defaulted companies