Risk as a tool in water resource management

Please read the abstract in the section 00front of this documentThesis (PhD (Water Utilisation))--University of Pretoria, 2005.Civil Engineeringunrestricte

The Water Situation of the Future Mega City "Urumqi" (NW-China) – Resources, Risk, Conservation and Management

Urumqi is located in the remote center of the Eurasian continent. It is a future mega-city with rapid economic development and high population density in China's western interior. Urumqi's water resource problems are the main research objects in this thesis. Several models have been put forward to predict water demand in Urumqi and useful suggestions have been gathered to reduce water scarcity. In 2010, the average annual water resources of Urumqi were at 939.22 million m³ and the average per capita water resources were 387 m³, meaning that water resources are inadequate in Urumqi. The water consumption in Urumqi already exceeded the total amount of water resources. Furthermore, almost half of the wastewater is discharged directly into rivers and wasteland in Urumqi and as such, both surface water and groundwater are seriously polluted. Since there is also no reasonable water price system, the price of water is relative low which leads to weak awareness of water conservation. In addition, the high leakage rate of the pipe network and the backward technology of agricultural irrigation have resulted in serious water losses. In order to alleviate the scarcity of water resources and instead increase the number of resources, while at the same time improving water quality, wastewater in Urumqi and how it is reused of Urumqi was analyzed. Some suggestions about Urumqi's sewage and water reuse system were put forward. Moreover, various water scarcity assessment indexes were used to evaluate the water scarcity risk in Urumqi. Based on the results of a water scarcity risk assessment, the water scarcity decision model was built up by adopting the advanced Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology. The measures to reduce water scarcity include a.o. adjusting industrial structures, water conservation, using unconventional water resources, implementing economic regulation measures, controlling environmental safety, improving urban functions, and the interbasin transfer of water. According to the results of the analysis of water scarcity decisions, major solutions to resolve the problem of water scarcity were identified, with water conservation as the most important step in reducing water scarcity in Urumqi. In addition, a water conservation index system was set up based on the water-saving evaluation standard in China to change the present situation of serious wastage of water resources in Urumqi. This index system can be used to reflect the problems (e.g. high leakage rate of the water supply pipe network, low water price, low conveyance efficiency of irrigation canal system, low rate of recycled industrial water and water conservation awareness) and the potentials of water conversation in each sector (agriculture, industry and domestic). The results of the index system show that there is a large potential of agricultural water conservation, and it can be achieved by several measures, such as improving the water efficiency of the canal system, promoting the usage of advanced water conservation irrigation techniques and increasing the water price for agricultural irrigation. In addition, the "quota method" and the "grey model" (used to analyze the system, which related to time includes both certain and uncertain information) were used to predict water demand. The "quota method" predicts the water demand based on indicators of socioeconomic development and the water use quota in each sector. The "grey model" was constructed according to the time series of agricultural, industrial, domestic and total water consumption in Urumqi from 2003 to 2010 by creating a sequence of first-order accumulated generating operation and differential equations. The predictions that were calculated by using the grey model show that agriculture will still be the biggest user of water in 2015. Therefore, changing the agricultural system and improving the efficiency of agricultural water use are the best ways to realize the rational allocation and sustainable use of water resources in Urumqi. In order to effectively manage Urumqi's water resources and to integrate the water demand prediction model and the water scarcity decision model, the water resources management and information system for Urumqi was built up by using various technologies (database, Web and GIS server). This system not only reflects the current situation of Urumqi's water resources but also helps users to make decisions for reducing water scarcity

Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Ecological Informatics: translating ecological data into knowledge and decisions in a rapidly changing world: ICEI 2018

The Conference Proceedings are an impressive display of the current scope of Ecological Informatics. Whilst Data Management, Analysis, Synthesis and Forecasting have been lasting popular themes over the past nine biannual ICEI conferences, ICEI 2018 addresses distinctively novel developments in Data Acquisition enabled by cutting edge in situ and remote sensing technology. The here presented ICEI 2018 abstracts captures well current trends and challenges of Ecological Informatics towards: • regional, continental and global sharing of ecological data, • thorough integration of complementing monitoring technologies including DNA-barcoding, • sophisticated pattern recognition by deep learning, • advanced exploration of valuable information in ‘big data’ by means of machine learning and process modelling, • decision-informing solutions for biodiversity conservation and sustainable ecosystem management in light of global changes

Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Ecological Informatics: translating ecological data into knowledge and decisions in a rapidly changing world: ICEI 2018

The Conference Proceedings are an impressive display of the current scope of Ecological Informatics. Whilst Data Management, Analysis, Synthesis and Forecasting have been lasting popular themes over the past nine biannual ICEI conferences, ICEI 2018 addresses distinctively novel developments in Data Acquisition enabled by cutting edge in situ and remote sensing technology. The here presented ICEI 2018 abstracts captures well current trends and challenges of Ecological Informatics towards: • regional, continental and global sharing of ecological data, • thorough integration of complementing monitoring technologies including DNA-barcoding, • sophisticated pattern recognition by deep learning, • advanced exploration of valuable information in ‘big data’ by means of machine learning and process modelling, • decision-informing solutions for biodiversity conservation and sustainable ecosystem management in light of global changes

Spatially optimised sustainable urban development

PhD ThesisTackling urbanisation and climate change requires more sustainable and resilient cities, which in turn will require planners to develop a portfolio of measures to manage climate risks such as flooding, meet energy and greenhouse gas reduction targets, and prioritise development on brownfield sites to preserve greenspace. However, the policies, strategies and measures put in place to meet such objectives can frequently conflict with each other or deliver unintended consequences, hampering long-term sustainability. For example, the densification of cities in order to reduce transport energy use can increase urban heat island effects and surface water flooding from extreme rainfall events. In order to make coherent decisions in the presence of such complex multi-dimensional spatial conflicts, urban planners require sophisticated planning tools to identify and manage potential trade-offs between the spatial strategies necessary to deliver sustainability. To achieve this aim, this research has developed a multi-objective spatial optimisation framework for the spatial planning of new residential development within cities. The implemented framework develops spatial strategies of required new residential development that minimize conflicts between multiple sustainability objectives as a result of planning policy and climate change related hazards. Five key sustainability objectives have been investigated, namely; (i) minimizing risk from heat waves, (ii) minimizing the risk from flood events, (iii) minimizing travel costs in order to reduce transport emissions, (iv) minimizing urban sprawl and (v) preventing development on existing greenspace. A review identified two optimisation algorithms as suitable for this task. Simulated Annealing (SA) is a traditional optimisation algorithm that uses a probabilistic approach to seek out a global optima by iteratively assessing a wide range of spatial configurations against the objectives under consideration. Gradual ‘cooling’, or reducing the probability of jumping to a different region of the objective space, helps the SA to converge on globally optimal spatial patterns. Genetic Algorithms (GA) evolve successive generations of solutions, by both recombining attributes and randomly mutating previous generations of solutions, to search for and converge towards superior spatial strategies. The framework works towards, and outputs, a series of Pareto-optimal spatial plans that outperform all other plans in at least one objective. This approach allows for a range of best trade-off plans for planners to choose from. ii Both SA and GA were evaluated for an initial case study in Middlesbrough, in the North East of England, and were able to identify strategies which significantly improve upon the local authority’s development plan. For example, the GA approach is able to identify a spatial strategy that reduces the travel to work distance between new development and the central business district by 77.5% whilst nullifying the flood risk to the new development. A comparison of the two optimisation approaches for the Middlesbrough case study revealed that the GA is the more effective approach. The GA is more able to escape local optima and on average outperforms the SA by 56% in in the Pareto fronts discovered whilst discovering double the number of multi-objective Pareto-optimal spatial plans. On the basis of the initial Middlesbrough case study the GA approach was applied to the significantly larger, and more computationally complex, problem of optimising spatial development plans for London in the UK – a total area of 1,572km2. The framework identified optimal strategies in less than 400 generations. The analysis showed, for example, strategies that provide the lowest heat risk (compared to the feasible spatial plans found) can be achieved whilst also using 85% brownfield land to locate new development. The framework was further extended to investigate the impact of different development and density regulations. This enabled the identification of optimised strategies, albeit at lower building density, that completely prevent any increase in urban sprawl whilst also improving the heat risk objective by 60% against a business as usual development strategy. Conversely by restricting development to brownfield the ability of the spatial plan to optimise future heat risk is reduced by 55.6% against the business as usual development strategy. The results of both case studies demonstrate the potential of spatial optimisation to provide planners with optimal spatial plans in the presence of conflicting sustainability objectives. The resulting diagnostic information provides an analytical appreciation of the sensitivity between conflicts and therefore the overall robustness of a plan to uncertainty. With the inclusion of further objectives, and qualitative information unsuitable for this type of analysis, spatial optimization can constitute a powerful decision support tool to help planners to identify spatial development strategies that satisfy multiple sustainability objectives and provide an evidence base for better decision making

11th International Conference on Business, Technology and Innovation 2022

Welcome to IC – UBT 2022 UBT Annual International Conference is the 11th international interdisciplinary peer reviewed conference which publishes works of the scientists as well as practitioners in the area where UBT is active in Education, Research and Development. The UBT aims to implement an integrated strategy to establish itself as an internationally competitive, research-intensive university, committed to the transfer of knowledge and the provision of a world-class education to the most talented students from all background. The main perspective of the conference is to connect the scientists and practitioners from different disciplines in the same place and make them be aware of the recent advancements in different research fields, and provide them with a unique forum to share their experiences. It is also the place to support the new academic staff for doing research and publish their work in international standard level. This conference consists of sub conferences in different fields like: Security Studies Sport, Health and Society Psychology Political Science Pharmaceutical and Natural Sciences Mechatronics, System Engineering and Robotics Medicine and Nursing Modern Music, Digital Production and Management Management, Business and Economics Language and Culture Law Journalism, Media and Communication Information Systems and Security Integrated Design Energy Efficiency Engineering Education and Development Dental Sciences Computer Science and Communication Engineering Civil Engineering, Infrastructure and Environment Architecture and Spatial Planning Agriculture, Food Science and Technology Art and Digital Media This conference is the major scientific event of the UBT. It is organizing annually and always in cooperation with the partner universities from the region and Europe. We have to thank all Authors, partners, sponsors and also the conference organizing team making this event a real international scientific event. Edmond Hajrizi, President of UBT UBT – Higher Education Institutio

Arrhythmogenic sarcoplasmic reticulum calcium leak in isolated ventricular cardiomyocytes - changes in heart failure and mechanisms of pharmacological modulation

Cardiomyocyte contraction involves sarcolemmal depolarization causing a small influx of Ca2+ which is then amplified via a larger release from the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR). Under certain conditions SR Ca2+ is released in the absence of depolarization - so called SR Ca2+ leak. This is thought to be a key cause of arrhythmogenesis in heart failure (HF). The aims of this thesis were to assess how SR leak changes in a rat model of HF induced by chronic myocardial infarction (MI) and the mechanism of modulation using INa blockers. Several novel methodologies were developed to do this including the use of hierarchical statistical analysis which reduced the chance of type I errors in comparison to standard techniques. Detailed assessment of the HF model showed that there was fluid retention and eccentric hypertrophic remodelling of an impaired left ventricle by 16 weeks post MI which were more marked compared with earlier timepoints. Although under basal conditions Ca2+ leak was similar in HF and control cells, leak enhancement in response to isoprenaline was more marked in HF cells and there were significant heterogeneities in leak when comparing the borderzone to remote regions. At an earlier stage (8 weeks post MI) we found more frequent Ca2+ waves even under basal conditions. Analysis of Ca2+ leak in 3-D for the first time using a novel microscopy technique showed that arrhythmogenic waves originate from regions of preserved t-tubules. Finally we explored the use of flecainide to inhibit SR leak and showed that it acts via reduction of INa, which enhances Ca2+ efflux via the Na+/Ca2+ exchanger. In conclusion this thesis has drawn on several novel methodologies to gain a deeper understanding of SR leak, both in terms of how it changes in HF and by exploring a novel mechanism by which it can be reduced.Open Acces

NOTIFICATION !!!

All the content of this special edition is retrieved from the conference proceedings published by the European Scientific Institute, ESI. http://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/pages/view/books The European Scientific Journal, ESJ, after approval from the publisher re publishes the papers in a Special edition

NOTIFICATION !!!

All the content of this special edition is retrieved from the conference proceedings published by the European Scientific Institute, ESI. http://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/pages/view/books The European Scientific Journal, ESJ, after approval from the publisher re publishes the papers in a Special edition

NOTIFICATION!!!

The full content of this special edition is retrieved from the conference proceedings published by the European Scientific Institute, ESI. http://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/pages/view/books The European Scientific Journal, ESJ, after approval from the publisher re publishes the papers in a Special edition