Granular technologies to accelerate decarbonization

Of the 45 energy technologies deemed critical by the International Energy Agency for meeting global climate targets, 38 need to improve substan- tially in cost and performance while accelerating deployment over the next decades.Low-carbon technological solutions vary in scale from solar panels, e-bikes, and smart thermostats to carbon capture and storage, light rail transit, and whole-building retrofits. We make three contributions to long-standing debates on the appropriate scale of technological responses in the energy system. First, we focus on the specific needs of accelerated low-carbon transformation: rapid technology deployment, escaping lock-in, and social legitimacy. Second, we synthesize evidence on energy end-use technologies in homes, transport, and industry, as well as electricity generation and energy supply. Third, we go beyond technical and economic considerations to include innovation, investment, deployment, social, and equity criteria for assessing the relative advantage of alternative technologies as a function of their scale. We suggest numerous potential advantages of more-granular energy technologies for accelerating progress toward climate targets, as well as the conditions on which such progress depends

No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change

In a prior study, I introduced a simple economic growth model designed to be consistent with general thermodynamic laws. Unlike traditional economic models, civilization is viewed only as a well-mixed global whole with no distinction made between individual nations, economic sectors, labor, or capital investments. At the model core is an observationally supported hypothesis that the global economy's current rate of primary energy consumption is tied through a constant to a very general representation of its historically accumulated wealth. Here, this growth model is coupled to a linear formulation for the evolution of globally well-mixed atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While very simple, the coupled model provides faithful multi-decadal hindcasts of trajectories in gross world product (GWP) and CO2. Extending the model to the future, the model suggests that the well-known IPCC SRES scenarios substantially underestimate how much CO2 levels will rise for a given level of future economic prosperity. For one, global CO2 emission rates cannot be decoupled from wealth through efficiency gains. For another, like a long-term natural disaster, future greenhouse warming can be expected to act as an inflationary drag on the real growth of global wealth. For atmospheric CO2 concentrations to remain below a "dangerous" level of 450 ppmv, model forecasts suggest that there will have to be some combination of an unrealistically rapid rate of energy decarbonization and nearly immediate reductions in global civilization wealth. Effectively, it appears that civilization may be in a double-bind. If civilization does not collapse quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up exceeding 1000 ppmv; but, if CO2 levels rise by this much, then the risk is that civilization will gradually tend towards collapse

Decarbonizing development: three steps to a zero-carbon future

This report lays out three steps for a smooth transition to a zero-carbon future and provides data, examples and policy advice to help countries makes the shift. Overview Getting to zero net emissions and stabilizing climate change starts with planning for the long-term future and not stopping at short-term goals. It means getting prices right as part of a broad policy package that can trigger changes in both investments and behaviors, and it requires smoothing the transition for those most affected. A new World Bank report walks policymakers through those three steps with data, examples and policy advice to help put countries on a path to decarbonizing their development in a smooth and orderly way. The solutions exist, and they are affordable – if governments take action today, the report says

Unique Opportunities of Island States to Transition to a Low-Carbon Mobility System

Small islands developing states (SIDS) contribute minuscule proportions to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption, but are highly exposed to climate change impacts, in particular to extreme weather events and sea-level rise. However, there is little research on potential decarbonization trajectories unique to SIDS. Here, we argue that insular topology, scale, and economy are distinctive characteristics of SIDS that facilitate overcoming carbon lock-in. We investigate these dimensions for the three islands of Barbados, Fiji, and Mauritius. We find that insular topologies and small scale offer an opportunity for both public transit corridors and rapid electrification of car fleets. The tourism sector enables local decision-makers and investors to experiment with shared mobility and to induce spillover effects by educating tourists about new mobility options. Limited network effects, and the particular economy thus enables to overcome carbon lock-in. We call for targeted investments into SIDS to transition insular mobility systems towards zero carbon in 2040. The decarbonization of SIDS is not only needed as a mitigation effort, but also as a strong signal to the global community underlining that a zero-carbon future is possible.DFG, 414044773, Open Access Publizieren 2019 - 2020 / Technische Universität Berli

use natural gas consumption in 201Scenarios to decarbonize residential water heating in California

This paper presents the first detailed long-term stock turnover model to investigate scenarios to decarbonize the residential water heating sector in California, which is currently dominated by natural gas. We model a mix of water heating (WH) technologies including conventional and on-demand (tank-less) natural gas heating, electric resistance, existing electric heat pumps, advanced heat pumps with low global warming refrigerants and solar thermal water heaters. Technically feasible policy scenarios are developed by considering combinations of WH technologies with efficiency gains within each technology, lowering global warming potential of refrigerants and decreasing grid carbon intensity. We then evaluate energy demand, emissions and equipment replacement costs of the pathways. We develop multiple scenarios by which the annual greenhouse gas emissions from residential water heaters in California can be reduced by over 80% from 1990 levels resulting in an annual savings of over 10 Million Metric Tons by 2050. The overall cost of transition will depend on future cost reductions in heat pump and solar thermal water heating equipment, energy costs, and hot water consumption

Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts

Energy efficiency has played an important role in helping China achieve its domestic and international energy and climate change mitigation targets, but more significant near-term actions to decarbonize are needed to help China and the world meet the Paris Agreement goals. Accelerating electrification and maximizing supply-side and demand-side renewable adoption are two recent strategies being considered in China, but few bottom-up modeling studies have evaluated the potential near-term impacts of these strategies across multiple sectors. To fill this research gap, we use a bottom-up national end-use model that integrates energy supply and demand systems and conduct scenario analysis to evaluate even lower CO2 emissions strategies and subsequent pathways for China to go beyond cost-effective efficiency and fuel switching. We find that maximizing non-conventional electric and renewable technologies can help China peak its national CO2 emissions as early as 2025, with significant additional CO2 emission reductions on the order of 7 Gt CO2 annually by 2050. Beyond potential CO2 reductions from power sector decarbonization, significant potential lies in fossil fuel displaced by renewable heat in industry. These results suggest accelerating the utilization of non-conventional electric and renewable technologies present additional CO2 reduction opportunities for China, but new policies and strategies are needed to change technology choices in the demand sectors. Managing the pace of electrification in tandem with the pace of decarbonization of the power sector will also be crucial to achieving CO2 reductions from the power sector in a scenario of increased electrification

Solar energy technologies in sustainable energy action plans of italian big cities

Cities, accounting for more than 3/4 of global final energy consumption, are equipping themselves with governance tools to improve energy efficiency. In Europe, urban energy policy has adopted, only recently and voluntarily, the Sustainable Energy Action Plans (SEAP), following the European Strategy 20-20-20. Italy, country most sensitive among European ones, accounts for 53% of SEAPs signatories. In order to evaluate how urban energy system in Italy can match sustainability European goals, it is necessary to analyse the technological options promoted by the energy policies for the urban environment. The paper presents the state-of-art of Urban Energy Planning in Italy, focusing on the implementation of Solar Energy technologies, and their role in new urban energy strategy instruments, i.e. SEAP, to promote renewables deployment. Carbon emission avoidance interventions planned by Italian big cities were analysed, highlighting the chosen Solar Energy technology. The aim of this paper is to discuss and evaluate the differences of solar energy harvesting in Italian urban scenarios, taking into account geographical and morphological constraints, and to compare the forecasts for 2020 and 2030scenarios, in accordance with European and National laws in force

Towards a Better Understanding of Disparities in Scenarios of Decarbonization: Sectorally Explicit Results from the RECIPE Project

This paper presents results from a model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy aiming at stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models REMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. The models applied in the project differ in several respects and the comparison exercise tracks differences in the business as usual forecasts as well as in the mitigation scenarios to conceptual differences in the model structures and assumptions. In particular, the models have different representation of the sectoral structure of the energy system. A detailed sectoral analysis conducted as part of this study reveals that the sectoral representation is a crucial determinant of the mitigation strategy and costs. While all models project that the electricity sector can be decarbonized readily, emissions abatement in the non-electric sectors, particularly transport, is much more challenging. Mitigation costs and carbon prices were found to depend strongly on the availability of low-carbon options in the non-electric sectors.Decarbonization, Energy and Climate Policy