A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment

The report presents a review of methods used in Europe for trend analysis, climate change projections and non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. In addition, main findings of the analyses are presented, including a comparison of trend analysis results and climate change projections. Existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation that incorporate climate change are reviewed. The report concludes with a discussion of research needs on non-stationary frequency analysis for considering the effects of climate change and inclusion in design guidelines. Trend analyses are reported for 21 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. A large number of national and regional trend studies have been carried out. Most studies are based on statistical methods applied to individual time series of extreme precipitation or extreme streamflow using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test or regression analysis. Some studies have been reported that use field significance or regional consistency tests to analyse trends over larger areas. Some of the studies also include analysis of trend attribution. The studies reviewed indicate that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant increasing trends at regional or national level of extreme streamflow. For some smaller regions increases in extreme streamflow are reported. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows. Climate change projections have been reported for 14 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. The review shows various approaches for producing climate projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency based on alternative climate forcing scenarios, climate projections from available global and regional climate models, methods for statistical downscaling and bias correction, and alternative hydrological models. A large number of the reported studies are based on an ensemble modelling approach that use several climate forcing scenarios and climate model projections in order to address the uncertainty on the projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Some studies also include alternative statistical downscaling and bias correction methods and hydrological modelling approaches. Most studies reviewed indicate an increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trend of extreme precipitation. Hydrological projections of peak flows and flood frequency show both positive and negative changes. Large increases in peak flows are reported for some catchments with rainfall-dominated peak flows, whereas a general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are reported for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows. The latter is consistent with the observed trends. The review of existing guidelines in Europe on design floods and design rainfalls shows that only few countries explicitly address climate change. These design guidelines are based on climate change adjustment factors to be applied to current design estimates and may depend on design return period and projection horizon. The review indicates a gap between the need for considering climate change impacts in design and actual published guidelines that incorporate climate change in extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Most of the studies reported are based on frequency analysis assuming stationary conditions in a certain time window (typically 30 years) representing current and future climate. There is a need for developing more consistent non-stationary frequency analysis methods that can account for the transient nature of a changing climate

The global hydrology education resource

This article is a selective overview of a range of contemporary teaching resources currently available globally for university hydrology educators, with an emphasis on web-based resources. Major governmental and scientific organizations relevant to the promotion of hydrology teaching are briefly introduced. Selected online teaching materials are then overviewed, i.e. PowerPoint presentations, course materials, and multimedia. A range of websites offering free basic hydrology modelling software are mentioned, together with some data file sources which could be used for teaching. Websites offering a considerable range of general hydrology links are also noted, as are websites providing international and national data sets which might be incorporated into teaching exercises. Finally, some discussion is given on reference material for different modes of hydrology teaching, including laboratory and field exercises

A collection of tools for factory eco-efficiency

co-efficiency is generally defined as doing more with less, aiming to decouple environmental impact from economic and social value creation. This paper presents three tools to guide the implementation of eco-efficiency in factories: (1) definition and patterns of good practices for sustainable manufacturing, (2) a self-assessment tool and maturity grid, and (3) a factory modelling framework

VARIwise: a general-purpose adaptive control simulation framework for spatially and temporally varied irrigation at sub-field scale

Irrigation control strategies may be used to improve the site-specific irrigation of cotton via lateral move and centre pivot irrigation machines. A simulation framework ‘VARIwise’ has been created to aid the development, evaluation and management of spatially and temporally varied site-specific irrigation control strategies. VARIwise accommodates sub-field scale variations in all input parameters using a 1 m2 cell size, and permits application of differing control strategies within the field, as well as differing irrigation amounts down to this scale. In this paper the motivation and objectives for the creation of VARIwise are discussed, the structure of the software is outlined and an example of the use and utility of VARIwise is presented. Three irrigation control strategies have been simulated in VARIwise using a cotton model with a range of input parameters including spatially variable soil properties, non-uniform irrigation application, three weather profiles and two crop varieties. The simulated yield and water use efficiency were affected by the combination of input parameters and the control strategy implemented

Transfer Learning for Improving Model Predictions in Highly Configurable Software

Modern software systems are built to be used in dynamic environments using configuration capabilities to adapt to changes and external uncertainties. In a self-adaptation context, we are often interested in reasoning about the performance of the systems under different configurations. Usually, we learn a black-box model based on real measurements to predict the performance of the system given a specific configuration. However, as modern systems become more complex, there are many configuration parameters that may interact and we end up learning an exponentially large configuration space. Naturally, this does not scale when relying on real measurements in the actual changing environment. We propose a different solution: Instead of taking the measurements from the real system, we learn the model using samples from other sources, such as simulators that approximate performance of the real system at low cost. We define a cost model that transform the traditional view of model learning into a multi-objective problem that not only takes into account model accuracy but also measurements effort as well. We evaluate our cost-aware transfer learning solution using real-world configurable software including (i) a robotic system, (ii) 3 different stream processing applications, and (iii) a NoSQL database system. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach can achieve (a) a high prediction accuracy, as well as (b) a high model reliability.Comment: To be published in the proceedings of the 12th International Symposium on Software Engineering for Adaptive and Self-Managing Systems (SEAMS'17

Modeling emergency management data by UML as an extension of geographic data sharing model: AST approach

Applying GIS functionality provides a powerful decision support in various application areas and the basis to integrate policies directed to citizens, business, and governments. The focus is changing toward integrating these functions to find optimal solutions to complex problems. As an integral part of this approach, geographic data sharing model for Turkey were developed as a new approach that enables using the data corporately and effectively. General features of this model are object-oriented model, based on ISO/TC211 standards and INSPIRE Data Specifications, describing nationwide unique object identifiers, and defining a mechanism to manage object changes through time. The model is fully described with Unified Modeling Language (UML) class diagram. This can be a starting point for geographic data providers in Turkey to create sector models like Emergency Management that has importance because of the increasing number of natural and man-made disasters. In emergency management, this sector model can provide the most appropriate data to many "Actors" that behave as emergency response organizations such as fire and medical departments. Actors work in "Sectors" such as fire department and urban security. Each sector is responsible for "Activities" such as traffic control, fighting dire, emission, and so on. "Tasks" such as registering incident, fire response, and evacuating area are performed by actors and part of activity. These tasks produce information for emergency response and require information based on the base data model. By this way, geographic data models of emergency response are designed and discussed with "Actor-Sector-Activity-Task" classes as an extension of the base model with some cases from Turkey

Integrated Dynamic Facade Control with an Agent-based Architecture for Commercial Buildings

Dynamic façades have significant technical potential to minimize heating, cooling, and lighting energy use and peak electric demand in the perimeter zone of commercial buildings, but the performance of these systems is reliant on being able to balance complex trade-offs between solar control, daylight admission, comfort, and view over the life of the installation. As the context for controllable energy-efficiency technologies grows more complex with the increased use of intermittent renewable energy resources on the grid, it has become increasingly important to look ahead towards more advanced approaches to integrated systems control in order to achieve optimum life-cycle performance at a lower cost. This study examines the feasibility of a model predictive control system for low-cost autonomous dynamic façades. A system architecture designed around lightweight, simple agents is proposed. The architecture accommodates whole building and grid level demands through its modular, hierarchical approach. Automatically-generated models for computing window heat gains, daylight illuminance, and discomfort glare are described. The open source Modelica and JModelica software tools were used to determine the optimum state of control given inputs of window heat gains and lighting loads for a 24-hour optimization horizon. Penalty functions for glare and view/ daylight quality were implemented as constraints. The control system was tested on a low-power controller (1.4 GHz single core with 2 GB of RAM) to evaluate feasibility. The target platform is a low-cost ($35/unit) embedded controller with 1.2 GHz dual-core cpu and 1 GB of RAM. Configuration and commissioning of the curtainwall unit was designed to be largely plug and play with minimal inputs required by the manufacturer through a web-based user interface. An example application was used to demonstrate optimal control of a three-zone electrochromic window for a south-facing zone. The overall approach was deemed to be promising. Further engineering is required to enable scalable, turnkey solutions