Demand estimation and chance-constrained fleet management for ride hailing

In autonomous Mobility on Demand (MOD) systems, customers request rides from a fleet of shared vehicles that can be automatically positioned in response to customer demand. Recent approaches to MOD systems have focused on environments where customers can only request rides through an app or by waiting at a station. This paper develops MOD fleet management approaches for ride hailing, where customers may instead request rides simply by hailing a passing vehicle, an approach of particular importance for campus MOD systems. The challenge for ride hailing is that customer demand is not explicitly provided as it would be with an app, but rather customers are only served if a vehicle happens to be located at the arrival location. This work focuses on maximizing the number of served hailing customers in an MOD system by learning and utilizing customer demand. A Bayesian framework is used to define a novel customer demand model which incorporates observed pedestrian traffic to estimate customer arrival locations with a quantification of uncertainty. An exploration planner is proposed which routes MOD vehicles in order to reduce arrival rate uncertainty. A robust ride hailing fleet management planner is proposed which routes vehicles under the presence of uncertainty using a chance-constrained formulation. Simulation of a real-world MOD system on MIT's campus demonstrates the effectiveness of the planners. The customer demand model and exploration planner are demonstrated to reduce estimation error over time and the ride hailing planner is shown to improve the fraction of served customers in the system by 73% over a baseline exploration approach.Ford-MIT AllianceFord Motor Compan

Taxi dispatching strategies with compensations

[EN] Urban mobility efficiency is of utmost importance in big cities. Taxi vehicles are key elements in daily traffic activity. The advance of ICT and geo-positioning systems has given rise to new opportunities for improving the efficiency of taxi fleets in terms of waiting times of passengers, cost and time for drivers, traffic density, CO2 emissions, etc., by using more informed, intelligent dispatching. Still, the explicit spatial and temporal components, as well as the scale and, in particular, the dynamicity of the problem of pairing passengers and taxis in big towns, render traditional approaches for solving standard assignment problem useless for this purpose, and call for intelligent approximation strategies based on domain-specific heuristics. Furthermore, taxi drivers are often autonomous actors and may not agree to participate in assignments that, though globally efficient, may not be sufficently beneficial for them individually. This paper presents a new heuristic algorithm for taxi assignment to customers that considers taxi reassignments if this may lead to globally better solutions. In addition, as such new assignments may reduce the expected revenues of individual drivers, we propose an economic compensation scheme to make individually rational drivers agree to proposed modifications in their assigned clients. We carried out a set of experiments, where several commonly used assignment strategies are compared to three different instantiations of our heuristic algorithm. The results indicate that our proposal has the potential to reduce customer waiting times in fleets of autonomous taxis, while being also beneficial from an economic point of view.This work was supported by the Autonomous Region of Madrid (grant "MOSI-AGIL-CM" (S2013/ICE-3019) co-funded by EU Structural Funds FSE and FEDER), project "SURF" (TIN2015-65515-C4-X-R (MINECO/FEDER)) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, and through the Excellence Research Group GES2ME (Ref. 30VCPIGI05) co-funded by URJC and Santander Bank.Billhardt, H.; Fernandez Gil, A.; Ossowski, S.; Palanca Cámara, J.; Bajo, J. (2019). Taxi dispatching strategies with compensations. Expert Systems with Applications. 122:173-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2019.01.001S17318212

Online Relocating and Matching of Ride-Hailing Services: A Model-Based Modular Approach

This study proposes an innovative model-based modular approach (MMA) to dynamically optimize order matching and vehicle relocation in a ride-hailing platform. MMA utilizes a two-layer and modular modeling structure. The upper layer determines the spatial transfer patterns of vehicle flow within the system to maximize the total revenue of the current and future stages. With the guidance provided by the upper layer, the lower layer performs rapid vehicle-to-order matching and vehicle relocation. MMA is interpretable, and equipped with the customized and polynomial-time algorithm, which, as an online order-matching and vehicle-relocation algorithm, can scale past thousands of vehicles. We theoretically prove that the proposed algorithm can achieve the global optimum in stylized networks, while the numerical experiments based on both the toy network and realistic dataset demonstrate that MMA is capable of achieving superior systematic performance compared to batch matching and reinforcement-learning based methods. Moreover, its modular and lightweight modeling structure further enables it to achieve a high level of robustness against demand variation while maintaining a relatively low computational cost

Data-Driven Dynamic Robust Resource Allocation: Application to Efficient Transportation

The transformation to smarter cities brings an array of emerging urbanization challenges. With the development of technologies such as sensor networks, storage devices, and cloud computing, we are able to collect, store, and analyze a large amount of data in real time. Modern cities have brought to life unprecedented opportunities and challenges for allocating limited resources in a data-driven way. Intelligent transportation system is one emerging research area, in which sensing data provides us opportunities for understanding spatial-temporal patterns of demand human and mobility. However, greedy or matching algorithms that only deal with known requests are far from efficient in the long run without considering demand information predicted based on data. In this dissertation, we develop a data-driven robust resource allocation framework to consider spatial-temporally correlated demand and demand uncertainties, motivated by the problem of efficient dispatching of taxi or autonomous vehicles. We first present a receding horizon control (RHC) framework to dispatch taxis towards predicted demand; this framework incorporates both information from historical record data and real-time GPS location and occupancy status data. It also allows us to allocate resource from a globally optimal perspective in a longer time period, besides the local level greedy or matching algorithm for assigning a passenger pick-up location of each vacant vehicle. The objectives include reducing both current and anticipated future total idle driving distance and matching spatial-temporal ratio between demand and supply for service quality. We then present a robust optimization method to consider spatial-temporally correlated demand model uncertainties that can be expressed in closed convex sets. Uncertainty sets of demand vectors are constructed from data based on theories in hypothesis testing, and the sets provide a desired probabilistic guarantee level for the performance of dispatch solutions. To minimize the average resource allocation cost under demand uncertainties, we develop a general data-driven dynamic distributionally robust resource allocation model. An efficient algorithm for building demand uncertainty sets that compatible with various demand prediction methods is developed. We prove equivalent computationally tractable forms of the robust and distributionally robust resource allocation problems using strong duality. The resource allocation problem aims to balance the demand-supply ratio at different nodes of the network with minimum balancing and re-balancing cost, with decision variables on the denominator that has not been covered by previous work. Trace-driven analysis with real taxi operational record data of San Francisco shows that the RHC framework reduces the average total idle distance of taxis by 52%, and evaluations with over 100GB of New York City taxi trip data show that robust and distributionally robust dispatch methods reduce the average total idle distance by 10% more compared with non-robust solutions. Besides increasing the service efficiency by reducing total idle driving distance, the resource allocation methods in this dissertation also reduce the demand-supply ratio mismatch error across the city