The automatic detection of patterns in people's movements

Bibliography: leaves 102-105

Constraint-based sequence mining using constraint programming

The goal of constraint-based sequence mining is to find sequences of symbols that are included in a large number of input sequences and that satisfy some constraints specified by the user. Many constraints have been proposed in the literature, but a general framework is still missing. We investigate the use of constraint programming as general framework for this task. We first identify four categories of constraints that are applicable to sequence mining. We then propose two constraint programming formulations. The first formulation introduces a new global constraint called exists-embedding. This formulation is the most efficient but does not support one type of constraint. To support such constraints, we develop a second formulation that is more general but incurs more overhead. Both formulations can use the projected database technique used in specialised algorithms. Experiments demonstrate the flexibility towards constraint-based settings and compare the approach to existing methods.Comment: In Integration of AI and OR Techniques in Constraint Programming (CPAIOR), 201

Discovering Predictive Event Sequences in Criminal Careers

In this work, we consider the problem of predicting criminal behavior, and propose a method for discovering predictive patterns in criminal histories. Quantitative criminal career analysis typically involves clustering individuals according to frequency of a particular event type over time, using cluster membership as a basis for comparison. We demonstrate the effectiveness of hazard pattern mining for the discovery of relationships between different types of events that may occur in criminal careers. Hazard pattern mining is an extension of event sequence mining, with the additional restriction that each event in the pattern is the first subsequent event of the specified type. This restriction facilitates application of established time based measures such as those used in survival analysis. We evaluate hazard patterns using a relative risk model and an accelerated failure time model. The results show that hazard patterns can reliably capture unexpected relationships between events of different types

Fouille de séquences temporelles pour la maintenance prédictive : application aux données de véhicules traceurs ferroviaires

In order to meet the mounting social and economic demands, railway operators and manufacturers are striving for a longer availability and a better reliability of railway transportation systems. Commercial trains are being equipped with state-of-the-art onboard intelligent sensors monitoring various subsystems all over the train. These sensors provide real-time flow of data, called floating train data, consisting of georeferenced events, along with their spatial and temporal coordinates. Once ordered with respect to time, these events can be considered as long temporal sequences which can be mined for possible relationships. This has created a neccessity for sequential data mining techniques in order to derive meaningful associations rules or classification models from these data. Once discovered, these rules and models can then be used to perform an on-line analysis of the incoming event stream in order to predict the occurrence of target events, i.e, severe failures that require immediate corrective maintenance actions. The work in this thesis tackles the above mentioned data mining task. We aim to investigate and develop various methodologies to discover association rules and classification models which can help predict rare tilt and traction failures in sequences using past events that are less critical. The investigated techniques constitute two major axes: Association analysis, which is temporal and Classification techniques, which is not temporal. The main challenges confronting the data mining task and increasing its complexity are mainly the rarity of the target events to be predicted in addition to the heavy redundancy of some events and the frequent occurrence of data bursts. The results obtained on real datasets collected from a fleet of trains allows to highlight the effectiveness of the approaches and methodologies usedDe nos jours, afin de répondre aux exigences économiques et sociales, les systèmes de transport ferroviaire ont la nécessité d'être exploités avec un haut niveau de sécurité et de fiabilité. On constate notamment un besoin croissant en termes d'outils de surveillance et d'aide à la maintenance de manière à anticiper les défaillances des composants du matériel roulant ferroviaire. Pour mettre au point de tels outils, les trains commerciaux sont équipés de capteurs intelligents envoyant des informations en temps réel sur l'état de divers sous-systèmes. Ces informations se présentent sous la forme de longues séquences temporelles constituées d'une succession d'événements. Le développement d'outils d'analyse automatique de ces séquences permettra d'identifier des associations significatives entre événements dans un but de prédiction d'événement signant l'apparition de défaillance grave. Cette thèse aborde la problématique de la fouille de séquences temporelles pour la prédiction d'événements rares et s'inscrit dans un contexte global de développement d'outils d'aide à la décision. Nous visons à étudier et développer diverses méthodes pour découvrir les règles d'association entre événements d'une part et à construire des modèles de classification d'autre part. Ces règles et/ou ces classifieurs peuvent ensuite être exploités pour analyser en ligne un flux d'événements entrants dans le but de prédire l'apparition d'événements cibles correspondant à des défaillances. Deux méthodologies sont considérées dans ce travail de thèse: La première est basée sur la recherche des règles d'association, qui est une approche temporelle et une approche à base de reconnaissance de formes. Les principaux défis auxquels est confronté ce travail sont principalement liés à la rareté des événements cibles à prédire, la redondance importante de certains événements et à la présence très fréquente de "bursts". Les résultats obtenus sur des données réelles recueillies par des capteurs embarqués sur une flotte de trains commerciaux permettent de mettre en évidence l'efficacité des approches proposée

A Study of Agent Influence in Nested Agent Interactions

This work develops a theory of agent influence and applies it to a coached system of simple reactive agents. Our notion of influence is intended to describe agent ability which is contingent on the actions of other agents and we view such behaviours as being “nested”. An agent may have the ability to make A hold only if another agent has carried out a particular action. Our analysis of this is based on a combination of the observation of the effects of an agent’s actions in a bounded environment and observations on what may be changed in that environment and is intended to allow for a logical representation of nested behaviours. We build on this notion to develop a theory of influence which we offer as an extension of existing systems for representing agency and its effects. The notion of an agent being able to “see to it” that something is brought about has been a useful device for reasoning about agent ability. These so-called STIT semantics have been developed by a number of researchers. Standard STIT semantics allow statements of the form [α stit: A] which says that agent a has the ability to see to it that A holds. Although based on the concept of agent action STIT semantics also allow for the representation of concepts involving what may be thought of as inaction. An agent deciding, for example, not to execute a particular action may be characterised as seeing to it that it does not see to it that A, [α stit: [α stit: -A]]. STIT encourages nesting and although this nesting extends across actions within an agent it does not extend easily across agents. So called other agent statements of the form [β stit: [α stit: A]] do not make sense in standard stit semantics because β seeing to it that α sees to it that A holds implies that β has some dominion over a which, in turn, compromises α’s agency. Although the statement makes no sense under standard STIT it does make sense in an intuitive way and Brian Chellas [31] notes that it would be: “...bizarre to deny that an agent should be able to see to it that another agent sees to something” This is also mentioned in Belnap et al. [8, page 275]. Chellas is correct and there are numerous settings in which other agent STIT does make sense. These settings, which are captured in various readings of STIT, may bring a great deal of system level overhead. In a normative system, for example, β may have the option of imposing a sanction on α if α fails to bring about A and in this sense may be thought of as seeing to it that α sees to it that A holds. Similarly a deontic reading may place β in a position where it is able to place an obligation on α to bring about A. These readings allow for sensible interpretation of other agent STIT but the examples above require that agents have sufficient awareness of personal utility be able to manage sanctions or that they are able to reason about obligations. These readings offer nothing for simple agents with limited resources and abilities. We offer another reading for the STIT element, one based on the concept of agent influence and one which carries minimal system level overhead. Because influence may be contingent on simultaneous or sequential behaviour by a number of agents it is extendible across agents and offers a means of addressing other agent statements. We extend the standard STIT semantics of Horty, Belnap and others with the introduction of “leads to” and “may lead to” operators which allow us to move our analysis into a setting where observation provides evidence of influence. We then explore the manifestation of influence in a number of scenarios. After exploring how influence manifests itself we then offer a partial logical characterisation of the influence operators and discuss its relationship with standard STIT. Building on these semantics and the partial logical characterisation we then explore the practical use of our theory of influence in an agent learning system. We describe experiments with a system specified by safety and liveness properties and having two broad classes of agents, actors and coaches. Actor agents will manipulate their environment and coaching agents will observe the actor’s behaviour and its effects using aggregated observations to generate new behaviours which are then seeded in the environment to modify actor behaviour. We then offer a discussion and evaluation of our theory and its applications indicating where it may be further developed and applied