Adaptive multiagent system for seismic emergency management

Presently, most multiagent frameworks are typically programmed in Java. Since the JADE platform has been recently ported to .NET, we used it to create an adaptive multiagent system where the knowledge base of the agents is managed using the CLIPS language, also called from .NET. The multiagent system is applied to create seismic risk scenarios, simulations of emergency situations, in which different parties, modeled as adaptive agents, interact and cooperate.adaptive systems, risk management, seisms.

A GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation framework for uncertainty reduction in earthquake disaster management using granular computing

One of the most important steps in earthquake disaster management is the prediction of probable damages which is called earthquake vulnerability assessment. Earthquake vulnerability assessment is a multicriteria problem and a number of multi-criteria decision making models have been proposed for the problem. Two main sources of uncertainty including uncertainty associated with experts‘ point of views and the one associated with attribute values exist in the earthquake vulnerability assessment problem. If the uncertainty in these two sources is not handled properly the resulted seismic vulnerability map will be unreliable. The main objective of this research is to propose a reliable model for earthquake vulnerability assessment which is able to manage the uncertainty associated with the experts‘ opinions. Granular Computing (GrC) is able to extract a set of if-then rules with minimum incompatibility from an information table. An integration of Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) and GrC is applied in the current research to minimize the entropy in experts‘ opinions. The accuracy of the model based on the integration of the DST and GrC is 83%, while the accuracy of the single-expert model is 62% which indicates the importance of uncertainty management in seismic vulnerability assessment problem. Due to limited accessibility to current data, only six criteria are used in this model. However, the model is able to take into account both qualitative and quantitative criteria

Preliminary investigation into the cause of acid mine water induced seismicity in Johannesburg

A preliminary investigation was done into the possible causes of the increased seismic activity in the Witwatersrand Basin. The paper focuses on approximated underground mining areas, groundwater mobility, rock types and the proximity of fault lines to seismic events. These parameters were mapped and correlated with observed seismicity in the area. There is some indication that the presence of underground mining areas has a positive relationship with the occurrence of seismic events. The other parameters exhibit a negative relationship with seismic activity. However, more detailed investigations are required before final conclusions can be drawn. An approach to risk assessment of possible earthquake scenarios in the City of Johannesburg (CoJ) is proposed. The approach aims to assess potential damage to infrastructure and loss of life in the case of an earthquake. The results of such an assessment may provide justification for more detailed investigations

Earthquake risk assessment using an integrated Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process with Artificial Neural Networks based on GIS: A case study of Sanandaj in Iran

Earthquakes are natural phenomena, which induce natural hazard that seriously threatens urban areas, despite significant advances in retrofitting urban buildings and enhancing the knowledge and ability of experts in natural disaster control. Iran is one of the most seismically active countries in the world. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and analyze the extent of earthquake vulnerability in relation to demographic, environmental, and physical criteria. An earthquake risk assessment (ERA) map was created by using a Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process coupled with an Artificial Neural Networks (FAHP-ANN) model generating five vulnerability classes. Combining the application of a FAHP-ANN with a geographic information system (GIS) enabled to assign weights to the layers of the earthquake vulnerability criteria. The model was applied to Sanandaj City in Iran, located in the seismically active Sanandaj-Sirjan zone which is frequently affected by devastating earthquakes. The Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model was implemented in the IDRISI software and 250 points were validated for grades 0 and 1. The validation process revealed that the proposed model can produce an earthquake probability map with an accuracy of 95%. A comparison of the results attained by using a FAHP, AHP and MLP model shows that the hybrid FAHP-ANN model proved flexible and reliable when generating the ERA map. The FAHP-ANN model accurately identified the highest earthquake vulnerability in densely populated areas with dilapidated building infrastructure. The findings of this study are useful for decision makers with a scientific basis to develop earthquake risk management strategies

Earthquake Risk Assessment of Sabah, Malaysia Based on Geospatial Approach

Sabah is located in the northeast region of East Malaysia and recognized as the most active seismic areas in Malaysia. The scalability and frequency of earthquakes are growing due to the existence of both local and distant ground motions from active faults, with more than 100 earthquake events have been recorded since 1923. On the other hand, the skewed socio-economic development process associated with the rapid population growth and changes in the family structure, inequality issues, and the lack of adaptation measures would intensify the vulnerability of the earthquakes. Key elements linked to socio-economic vulnerability need to be address in order to reduce the risk of earthquake. Based on previous studies, we identified vulnerabilities from a multi-dimensional perspective consisting of exposure, resilience and capacity across districts. Subsequently, a holistic indicators system with 18 variables was constructed to assess the potential earthquake vulnerability in Sabah, Malaysia. The accumulated data will present an earthquake vulnerability classification using a Geographical Information System (GIS) approach. Finally, the earthquake risk was derived by integrating the earthquake vulnerability map with earthquake hazard map proposed by the Department of Mineral and Geoscience (JMG) Malaysia. The results of the analysis revealed that the highest levels of earthquake risk accounts for 15.5% were concentrated in the eastern part of the Sabah region; the high-risk areas accounts for 7.7%; the moderate-risk areas accounts for 11.3%; and the area of low to very low risk accounts for 65.4%. Accordingly, it is expected that the derived earthquake vulnerability and risk map will allow the policymakers and response teams to improve the earthquake disaster mitigation and management in Sabah

Earthquake Risk Assessment of Sabah, Malaysia Based on Geospatial Approach

Sabah is located in the northeast region of East Malaysia and recognized as the most active seismic areas in Malaysia. The scalability and frequency of earthquakes are growing due to the existence of both local and distant ground motions from active faults, with more than 100 earthquake events have been recorded since 1923. On the other hand, the skewed socio-economic development process associated with the rapid population growth and changes in the family structure, inequality issues, and the lack of adaptation measures would intensify the vulnerability of the earthquakes. Key elements linked to socio-economic vulnerability need to be address in order to reduce the risk of earthquake. Based on previous studies, we identified vulnerabilities from a multi-dimensional perspective consisting of exposure, resilience and capacity across districts. Subsequently, a holistic indicators system with 18 variables was constructed to assess the potential earthquake vulnerability in Sabah, Malaysia. The accumulated data will present an earthquake vulnerability classification using a Geographical Information System (GIS) approach. Finally, the earthquake risk was derived by integrating the earthquake vulnerability map with earthquake hazard map proposed by the Department of Mineral and Geoscience (JMG) Malaysia. The results of the analysis revealed that the highest levels of earthquake risk accounts for 15.5% were concentrated in the eastern part of the Sabah region; the high-risk areas accounts for 7.7%; the moderate-risk areas accounts for 11.3%; and the area of low to very low risk accounts for 65.4%. Accordingly, it is expected that the derived earthquake vulnerability and risk map will allow the policymakers and response teams to improve the earthquake disaster mitigation and management in Sabah

Malignant melanoma of the urethra: a rare histologic subdivision of vulvar cancer with a poor prognosis

Malignant melanoma of the urethra is a rare tumour that is difficult to diagnose and treat, resulting in a poor prognosis. In this paper, we present the case of a 65-year-old woman who was referred to a gynaecologist because of a urethral mass that mimicked a caruncle. The tumour was removed by local excision, and a pathological analysis revealed a malignant melanoma. Distal urethrectomy was performed after three months with no evidence of residual tumour. There was no evidence of disease at a six-year followup. In this paper, we compare the epidemiology, treatment, staging, and prognosis of vulvar cancer in general to malignant melanoma of the vulva in particular

Identification, prediction and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

Abstract Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility, and commonly a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well-understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, investigation, prediction, and mitigation. Identification techniques include field surveys, and geomorphological mapping combined with accounts from local people and historical sources. Detailed sinkhole maps can be constructed from sequential historical maps, recent topographical maps and digital elevation models (DEMs) complemented with building-damage surveying, remote sensing, and high-resolution geodetic surveys. On a more detailed level, information from exposed paleosubsidence features (paleokarst), speleological explorations, geophysical investigations, trenching, dating techniques, and boreholes, may help to recognize dissolution and subsidence features. Information on the hydrogeological pathways including caves, springs and swallow holes, are particularly important especially when corroborated by tracer tests. These diverse data sources make a valuable database - the karst inventory. From this dataset, sinkhole susceptibility zonations (relative probability) may be produced based on the spatial and temporal distribution of the features and good knowledge of the local geology. Sinkhole distribution can be investigated by spatial distribution analysis techniques including studies of preferential elongation, alignment and nearest neighbor analysis. More objective susceptibility models may be obtained by analyzing the statistical relationships between the known sinkholes and the conditioning factors, such as weather conditions. Chronological information on sinkhole formation is required to estimate the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (number of sinkholes/km² year). Such spatial and temporal predictions, derived from limited records and based on the assumption that past sinkhole activity may be extrapolated to the future, are non-corroborated hypotheses. Validation methods allow us to assess the predictive capability of the susceptibility maps and to transform them into probability maps. Avoiding the most hazardous areas by preventive planning is the safest strategy for development in sinkhole-prone areas. Corrective measures could be to reduce the dissolution activity and subsidence processes, but these are difficult. A more practical solution for safe development is to reduce the vulnerability of the structures by using subsidence-proof designs