Coping with the disappointingrates of return on development projects that affect the environment

Lending institutions'initial appraisals often ignore the true costs of environmental impacts, and many development projects are launched despite returns that are often below the cost of capital and all too often actually negative. Most environmental impacts are negative, so approving a project with a low true rate of return is not only a financial waste but a gratuitous stress on the ecosystem. Ecosystems typically have a low tolerance for such impacts, so low-yielding projects entail serious ecosystem opportunity costs. The author explores why projects with environmental impacts so often have lower-than-anticipated rates of return, and what can be done to remedy the situation. Many observers are optimistic because there is more environmental awareness than there was in the 1970s and early 1980s and environmental screening is more a part of project evaluation. But, says the author, attention to environmental risk has not yet provoked the structural changes in government institutions that would allow for the development of incentives that give proper weight to environmental risks. The fundamental political economy of early commitment to grandiose projects of uncertain environmental consequences has not been overturned. It is also important to develop better appraisal methodologies and to hold those preparing initial project appraisals accountable for their appraisals. If post-project evaluations do not capture the most significant environmental costs, analysts conducting appraisals early in the project's life are unlikely to worry about being caught out by their unfounded optimism or their disregard for environmental consequences. The good news is that in policy reform and structural adjustment the movement is toward eliminating blatant risk-seeking and making government institutions accountable for the results of their own actions. Although the conditionalities imposed by international funding institutions can be helpful, the primary responsibility for designing and selecting appropriate projects that have an envrironmental impact still lies with the governments of the developing world.Health Economics&Finance,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,ICT Policy and Strategies

Computer Aided Verification

The open access two-volume set LNCS 11561 and 11562 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Computer Aided Verification, CAV 2019, held in New York City, USA, in July 2019. The 52 full papers presented together with 13 tool papers and 2 case studies, were carefully reviewed and selected from 258 submissions. The papers were organized in the following topical sections: Part I: automata and timed systems; security and hyperproperties; synthesis; model checking; cyber-physical systems and machine learning; probabilistic systems, runtime techniques; dynamical, hybrid, and reactive systems; Part II: logics, decision procedures; and solvers; numerical programs; verification; distributed systems and networks; verification and invariants; and concurrency

An exploration of New Institutional Economics for the strategic analysis of e-business with reference to transformational change

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Docter of Business Administration and awarded by Brunel University on behalf of Henley Management CollegeThis research applies institutional economics theory to management challenges arising in connection with e-business related transformational change. The research was carried out in response to widely recognised problems in managing IT-enabled change in complex organisations. A cyclic approach builds researcher competence in both the chosen theory, New Institutional Economics (NIE), and its application through a series of four contrasting case studies. The case situations, which derive from the researcher’s work as a technology management consultant, are treated as action research experiments which investigate e-business related transformational change in financial services, retail and government settings. A constructivist stance is adopted within the case situations with the researcher acting as a participant observer. Reflective practice is used to improve the experimental method for the case studies through the course of the research, leading to the use of participatory action research (PAR) for the final case. A literature review of NIE shows it to be loosely defined as a theory, so an analytic NIE framework is created to provide a cognitive model. This model is then modified and extended to produce a final theoretical framework. In parallel, a conceptual map of NIE is created from the research as a practical aid to illustrate NIE concepts and linkages. These two models, the theoretical framework and the conceptual map, evolve through the four case situations which were selected from a range of e-business consulting opportunities available to the researcher over the period of the research. The second case study drives the main development of the two models and draws out the necessary and complementary contributions of both transaction cost economics (TCE) and agency theory (AT) as parts of NIE, neither of which is sufficient on its own. The final case study demonstrates application to practice. The overall sequence of case studies shows the researcher’s cognitive growth from being a novice in the theory and its application in the first case through to a level of proficiency in applying NIE to the rigours of e-business practice in the final case. The research makes several contributions to knowledge. It makes a significant methodological contribution by bringing research methods developed for other forms of professional practice to the management discipline. It also makes a significant contribution to theoretical knowledge. It develops two theoretical models of NIE – a conceptual map and a theoretical framework – which present a way of linking NIE concepts in a meaningful way, and a structure by which NIE can be used in the analysis of highly complex organisational situations. These models clarify the complementary roles of TCE and AT, and indicate a reason why so many studies limited to TCE alone have been inconclusive. Applying NIE to the rigours of e-business management produces, in turn, a contribution to IT strategy formulation. The research makes a practical contribution by showing how NIE can be applied to e-business practice, subject to a number of significant caveats. NIE, as a descriptive theory, is shown to provide a powerful conceptual framework when combined with PAR, although both require deep knowledge and skill. In particular, adopting PAR as a case study method depends on an experienced, skilled and committed practitioner for its effective use. Finally, the research finds that NIE’s strengths as a framework for strategic analysis of large scale and complex e-business situations involving transformational change, which make it unduly sophisticated for less challenging situations, mean that NIE is suited to use by highly skilled, specialist consultants rather than by general managers

Monte Carlo strategies for calibration in climate models

Intensive computational methods have been used by Earth scientists in a wide range of problems in data inversion and uncertainty quantification such as earthquake epicenter location and climate projections. To quantify the uncertainties resulting from a range of plausible model configurations it is necessary to estimate a multidimensional probability distribution. The computational cost of estimating these distributions for geoscience applications is impractical using traditional methods such as Metropolis/Gibbs algorithms as simulation costs limit the number of experiments that can be obtained reasonably. Several alternate sampling strategies have been proposed that could improve on the sampling efficiency including Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) and Adaptive Metropolis algorithms. As a goal of this research, the performance of these proposed sampling strategies are evaluated with a surrogate climate model that is able to approximate the noise and response behavior of a realistic atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The surrogate model is fast enough that its evaluation can be embedded in these Monte Carlo algorithms. The goal of this thesis is to show that adaptive methods can be superior to MVFSA to approximate the known posterior distribution with fewer forward evaluations. However, the adaptive methods can also be limited by inadequate sample mixing. The Single Component and Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithms were found to resolve these limitations, although challenges remain to approximating multi-modal distributions. The results show that these advanced methods of statistical inference can provide practical solutions to the climate model calibration problem and challenges in quantifying climate projection uncertainties. The computational methods would also be useful to problems outside climate prediction, particularly those where sampling is limited by availability of computational resources

Fourth Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Space Applications

Proceedings of a conference held in Huntsville, Alabama, on November 15-16, 1988. The Fourth Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Space Applications brings together diverse technical and scientific work in order to help those who employ AI methods in space applications to identify common goals and to address issues of general interest in the AI community. Topics include the following: space applications of expert systems in fault diagnostics, in telemetry monitoring and data collection, in design and systems integration; and in planning and scheduling; knowledge representation, capture, verification, and management; robotics and vision; adaptive learning; and automatic programming

Computer Aided Verification

The open access two-volume set LNCS 11561 and 11562 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Computer Aided Verification, CAV 2019, held in New York City, USA, in July 2019. The 52 full papers presented together with 13 tool papers and 2 case studies, were carefully reviewed and selected from 258 submissions. The papers were organized in the following topical sections: Part I: automata and timed systems; security and hyperproperties; synthesis; model checking; cyber-physical systems and machine learning; probabilistic systems, runtime techniques; dynamical, hybrid, and reactive systems; Part II: logics, decision procedures; and solvers; numerical programs; verification; distributed systems and networks; verification and invariants; and concurrency

AI: Augmentation, more so than automation

See also AI gets real at Singapore's Changi Airport. Distilling managerial insights and lessons from AI projects at Singapore’s Changi Airport</p

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2017

Proceedings of the 11th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 20, 2017 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia. 211 pp

Space station automation of common module power management and distribution

The purpose is to automate a breadboard level Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) system which possesses many functional characteristics of a specified Space Station power system. The automation system was built upon 20 kHz ac source with redundancy of the power buses. There are two power distribution control units which furnish power to six load centers which in turn enable load circuits based upon a system generated schedule. The progress in building this specified autonomous system is described. Automation of Space Station Module PMAD was accomplished by segmenting the complete task in the following four independent tasks: (1) develop a detailed approach for PMAD automation; (2) define the software and hardware elements of automation; (3) develop the automation system for the PMAD breadboard; and (4) select an appropriate host processing environment