Progress in operational modeling in support of oil spill response

Following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident of a massive blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists from government, industry, and academia collaborated to advance oil spill modeling and share best practices in model algorithms, parameterizations, and application protocols. This synergy was greatly enhanced by research funded under the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), a 10-year enterprise that allowed unprecedented collection of observations and data products, novel experiments, and international collaborations that focused on the Gulf of Mexico, but resulted in the generation of scientific findings and tools of broader value. Operational oil spill modeling greatly benefited from research during the GoMRI decade. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the related scientific advances, remaining challenges, and future outlook. Two main modeling components are discussed: Ocean circulation and oil spill models, to provide details on all attributes that contribute to the success and limitations of the integrated oil spill forecasts. These forecasts are discussed in tandem with uncertainty factors and methods to mitigate them. The paper focuses on operational aspects of oil spill modeling and forecasting, including examples of international operational center practices, observational needs, communication protocols, and promising new methodologies

Are the Pyrenees a barrier for the transport of birch (Betula) pollen from Central Europe to the Iberian Peninsula?

This work provides a first assessment of the possible barrier effect of the Pyrenees on the atmospheric transport of airborne pollen from Europe to the North of the Iberian Peninsula. Aerobiological data recorded in three Spanish stations located at the eastern, central and western base of the Pyrenees in the period 2004–2014 have been used to identify the possible long range transport episodes of Betula pollen. The atmospheric transport routes and the origin regions have been established by means of trajectory analysis and a source receptor model. Betula pollen outbreaks were associated with the meteorological scenario characterized by the presence of a high-pressure system overm over Morocco and Southern Iberian Peninsula. France and Central Europe have been identified as the probable source areas of Betula pollen that arrives to Northern Spain. However, the specific source areas are mainly determined by the particular prevailing atmospheric circulation of each location. Finally, the Weather Research and Forecasting model highlighted the effect of the orography on the atmospheric transport patterns, showing paths through the western and easternmost lowlands for Vitoria-Gasteiz and Bellaterra respectively, and the direct impact of air flows over Vielha through the Garona valley.Peer ReviewedPreprin

Potential contribution of distant sources to airborne Betula pollen levels in Northeastern Iberian Peninsula

We acknowledge the financial support of the European Commission for ENV4-CT98-0755; the Spanish Government for CGL2004-21166-E, CGL2005-07543/CLI, CGL2009-11205, CGL2012-39523-C02-01/CLI, CGL2012-39523-C02-02, CGL2016-75996-R, CTM2017-89565-C2-1, CTM2017-89565-C2-2, and CSD 2007-00067; the Catalan Government for 2005SGR00519, 2009SGR1102, and 2017SGR1692; Diputacio de Tarragona; Servei Meteorologic de Catalunya; Sociedad Espanola de Alergologia e Inmunologia Clinica (SEAIC); Laboratorios LETI PHARMA; Societat Catalana d'Allergia i Immunologia Clinica (SCAIC); J Uriach y Compania; S.A. This research contributes to the Maria de Maeztu Programme for Units of Excellence of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CEX2019-000940-M). The authors gratefully acknowledge the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) for their HYSPLIT transport and dispersion model and the synoptic charts used in this publication.Betula (birch) pollen is one of the most important causes of respiratory allergy in Northern and Central Europe. While birch trees are abundant in Central, Northern, and Eastern Europe, they are scarce in the Mediterranean territories, especially in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), where they grow only in the northern regions and as ornamental trees in urban areas. However, the airborne birch pollen patterns in Catalonia (Northeastern IP) show abrupt high concentrations in areas with usually low local influence. The intensity of the derived health problems can be increased by outbreaks due to long-range pollen transport. The present work evaluates the different potential contributions to Catalonia from the main source regions: Pyrenees, Cantabria, and the forests of France and Central Europe. To this end, we computed the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back trajectories of air masses associated with the main Betula pollen peaks occurring simultaneously over different Catalan monitoring stations, and we studied their provenance over a 15-year period. The Vielha aerobiological station on the northern slopes of the Central Pyrenees was used to identify the dates of the pollen season in the Pyrenean region. In order to better understand the role of the Pyrenees, which is the nearest of the four birch forested regions, we classified the pollen peaks in the other Catalan stations into three groups based on the relationship between the peak and the pollen season in the Pyrenees. Our analysis of back-trajectory residence time, combined with the associated pollen concentration, reveals that two principal routes other than the Pyrenean forest sustain the northerly fluxes that enter Catalonia and carry significant concentrations of Betula pollen. This study has also allowed quantifying the differentiated contributions of the potential source regions. In addition, theWeather Research Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model has been used to study three specific episodes. Both models, HYSPLIT and WRF, complement each other and have allowed for better understanding of the main mechanisms governing the entry of birch pollen to the region.European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre ENV4-CT98-0755Spanish GovernmentEuropean Commission CGL2004-21166-E CGL2005-07543/CLI CGL2009-11205 CGL2012-39523-C02-01/CLI CGL2012-39523-C02-02 CGL2016-75996-R CTM2017-89565-C2-1 CTM2017-89565-C2-2 CSD 2007-00067Diputacio de TarragonaSociedad Espanola de Alergologia e Inmunologia Clinica (SEAIC)Laboratorios LETI PHARMASocietat Catalana d'Allergia i Immunologia Clinica (SCAIC)J Uriach y CompaniaMaria de Maeztu Programme for Units of Excellence of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation CEX2019-000940-MCatalan Government 2005SGR00519 2009SGR1102 2017SGR169

Potential contribution of distant sources to airborne Betula pollen levels in Northeastern Iberian Peninsula

Betula (birch) pollen is one of the most important causes of respiratory allergy in Northern and Central Europe. While birch trees are abundant inCentral, Northern, and Eastern Europe,theyare scarce inthe Mediterranean territories, especially in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), where they grow only in the northern regions and as ornamental trees in urban areas. However, the airborne birch pollen patterns in Catalonia (Northeastern IP) show abrupt high concentrations in areas withusually low local influence.The intensity of the derived health problemscan beincreasedbyoutbreaksdue to long-range pollen transport. The present work evaluates the different potential contributions to Catalonia from the main source regions: Pyrenees, Cantabria, and the forests of France and Central Europe. To this end, we computed the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back trajectories of air masses associated with the main Betula pollen peaks occurring simultaneously over different Catalan monitoring stations, and we studied their provenance over a 15-year period. The Vielha aerobiological station on the northern slopes of the Central Pyrenees was used to identify the dates of the pollen season in the Pyrenean region. In order to better understand the role of the Pyrenees, whichis thenearest of thefourbirch forested regions, weclassifiedthepollenpeaksinthe other Catalan stations into three groups based onthe relationship between the peak andthe pollenseason in thePyrenees. Our analysis of back-trajectory residence time, combined with the associated pollen concentration, reveals that two principal routes other than the Pyrenean forest sustain the northerly fluxes that enter Catalonia and carry significant concentrations of Betula pollen. This study has also allowed quantifying the differentiated contributions of the potential sourcePeer ReviewedObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::3 - Salut i BenestarObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::15 - Vida d'Ecosistemes TerrestresPostprint (published version

A physical modeling approach for identification of source regions of primary and secondary air pollutants

International audienceThis paper describes a simple but practical methodology to identify the contribution of primary and secondary air pollutants from the local/regional emission sources to Hong Kong, a highly urbanized city with complex terrain and coastlines. The meteorological model MM5 coupled with a three-dimensional, mutli-particle trajectory model is used to identify salient aspects of regional air pollutant transport characteristics during some typical meteorological conditions over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Several weighting factors are determined for calculating the air mass/pollutant trajectory and are used to evaluate the local and regional contribution of primary pollutants over the PRD to Hong Kong pollution. The relationships between emission inventories, physical paths and chemical transformation rates of the pollutants, and observational measurements are formulated. The local and regional contributions of secondary pollutants are obtained by this conceptual module under different weather scenarios. Our results demonstrate that major pollution sources over Hong Kong come from regional transport. In calm-weather situations, 78% of the respirable suspended particulates (RSP) totals in Hong Kong are contributed by regional transport, and 49% are contributed by the power plants within the PRD. In normal-day situations, 71% of the RSP are contributed by regional transport, and 45% are contributed by the power plants

Numerical modelling of mesoscale atmospheric dispersion

Fall 1992.Includes bibliographical references

Concatenated non-stationary dispersive scenarios on complex terrain under summer conditions

International audienceThe results and discussions presented in this paper arise from a statistically representative study of the physical processes associated with the multimodal distribution of pollutants aloft and around a 343-m-tall chimney under summer conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. The indetermination of a transversal plume to the preferred transport direction during transitional periods implies a small (or null) physical significance of the classical definition of horizontal standard deviation of the concentration distribution. By experimentation and modelling, this paper analyses the atmospheric dispersion of the SO2 emissions from a power plant on complex terrain, describing the main dispersion features as an ensemble of "stationary dispersive scenarios" and reformulating some "classical" dispersive concepts to deal with the systematically monitored summer dispersive scenarios in inland Spain

Atmospheric dispersion simulation of an accidental smoke plume using a heat diffusion algorithm into a LES-STO coupled model

A high resolution earth satellite image with the visible smoke plume of a huge fire in the city of La Plata, Argentina, is used to verify the simulated plume with the fluid particle dispersion model LES-STO (large-eddy simulation - lagrangian stochastic one particle model). The initial and boundary conditions are provided by a boundary layer model forecast, and local meteorological observations validate the wind and temperature forecast with good results. The smoke plume is modeled by the continuous emission of fluid particles, initiated 4 h before the time of the satellite image in order to allow the model spin-up. Due to the lack of technical information about the fire, the emission parameters required by the model are estimated considering the dimensions of the burnt area and the products stored there. The spatial orientation and horizontal lateral extension of the modeled plume coincide with the smoke plume clearly visible in the satellite image. The conclusion of the study is that it is possible to use LES-STO with initial and boundary conditions provided by operational meteorological forecasts to make a diagnosis of those areas that could be affected by accidental emissions.Fil: Aguirre, Cesar Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; ArgentinaFil: Berri, Guillermo Jorge. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Observatorio Astronómico de La Plata - Sede Central; ArgentinaFil: Dezzutti, Mariana Clara. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Observatorio Astronómico de La Plata - Sede Central; ArgentinaFil: Queirel, Juan Martin. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Observatorio Astronómico de La Plata - Sede Central; ArgentinaFil: Marcos, Eliana Cecilia. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Observatorio Astronómico de La Plata - Sede Central; ArgentinaFil: Sedano, Carlos German. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; ArgentinaFil: Rondán, Guillermo. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; Argentin