21,187 research outputs found
Counting Causal Paths in Big Times Series Data on Networks
Graph or network representations are an important foundation for data mining
and machine learning tasks in relational data. Many tools of network analysis,
like centrality measures, information ranking, or cluster detection rest on the
assumption that links capture direct influence, and that paths represent
possible indirect influence. This assumption is invalidated in time-stamped
network data capturing, e.g., dynamic social networks, biological sequences or
financial transactions. In such data, for two time-stamped links (A,B) and
(B,C) the chronological ordering and timing determines whether a causal path
from node A via B to C exists. A number of works has shown that for that reason
network analysis cannot be directly applied to time-stamped network data.
Existing methods to address this issue require statistics on causal paths,
which is computationally challenging for big data sets.
Addressing this problem, we develop an efficient algorithm to count causal
paths in time-stamped network data. Applying it to empirical data, we show that
our method is more efficient than a baseline method implemented in an
OpenSource data analytics package. Our method works efficiently for different
values of the maximum time difference between consecutive links of a causal
path and supports streaming scenarios. With it, we are closing a gap that
hinders an efficient analysis of big time series data on complex networks.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure
Disease spread through animal movements: a static and temporal network analysis of pig trade in Germany
Background: Animal trade plays an important role for the spread of infectious
diseases in livestock populations. As a case study, we consider pig trade in
Germany, where trade actors (agricultural premises) form a complex network. The
central question is how infectious diseases can potentially spread within the
system of trade contacts. We address this question by analyzing the underlying
network of animal movements.
Methodology/Findings: The considered pig trade dataset spans several years
and is analyzed with respect to its potential to spread infectious diseases.
Focusing on measurements of network-topological properties, we avoid the usage
of external parameters, since these properties are independent of specific
pathogens. They are on the contrary of great importance for understanding any
general spreading process on this particular network. We analyze the system
using different network models, which include varying amounts of information:
(i) static network, (ii) network as a time series of uncorrelated snapshots,
(iii) temporal network, where causality is explicitly taken into account.
Findings: Our approach provides a general framework for a
topological-temporal characterization of livestock trade networks. We find that
a static network view captures many relevant aspects of the trade system, and
premises can be classified into two clearly defined risk classes. Moreover, our
results allow for an efficient allocation strategy for intervention measures
using centrality measures. Data on trade volume does barely alter the results
and is therefore of secondary importance. Although a static network description
yields useful results, the temporal resolution of data plays an outstanding
role for an in-depth understanding of spreading processes. This applies in
particular for an accurate calculation of the maximum outbreak size.Comment: main text 33 pages, 17 figures, supporting information 7 pages, 7
figure
Generalized Network Psychometrics: Combining Network and Latent Variable Models
We introduce the network model as a formal psychometric model,
conceptualizing the covariance between psychometric indicators as resulting
from pairwise interactions between observable variables in a network structure.
This contrasts with standard psychometric models, in which the covariance
between test items arises from the influence of one or more common latent
variables. Here, we present two generalizations of the network model that
encompass latent variable structures, establishing network modeling as parts of
the more general framework of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). In the first
generalization, we model the covariance structure of latent variables as a
network. We term this framework Latent Network Modeling (LNM) and show that,
with LNM, a unique structure of conditional independence relationships between
latent variables can be obtained in an explorative manner. In the second
generalization, the residual variance-covariance structure of indicators is
modeled as a network. We term this generalization Residual Network Modeling
(RNM) and show that, within this framework, identifiable models can be obtained
in which local independence is structurally violated. These generalizations
allow for a general modeling framework that can be used to fit, and compare,
SEM models, network models, and the RNM and LNM generalizations. This
methodology has been implemented in the free-to-use software package lvnet,
which contains confirmatory model testing as well as two exploratory search
algorithms: stepwise search algorithms for low-dimensional datasets and
penalized maximum likelihood estimation for larger datasets. We show in
simulation studies that these search algorithms performs adequately in
identifying the structure of the relevant residual or latent networks. We
further demonstrate the utility of these generalizations in an empirical
example on a personality inventory dataset.Comment: Published in Psychometrik
Measuring information-transfer delays
In complex networks such as gene networks, traffic systems or brain circuits it is important to understand how long it takes for the different parts of the network to effectively influence one another. In the brain, for example, axonal delays between brain areas can amount to several tens of milliseconds, adding an intrinsic component to any timing-based processing of information. Inferring neural interaction delays is thus needed to interpret the information transfer revealed by any analysis of directed interactions across brain structures. However, a robust estimation of interaction delays from neural activity faces several challenges if modeling assumptions on interaction mechanisms are wrong or cannot be made. Here, we propose a robust estimator for neuronal interaction delays rooted in an information-theoretic framework, which allows a model-free exploration of interactions. In particular, we extend transfer entropy to account for delayed source-target interactions, while crucially retaining the conditioning on the embedded target state at the immediately previous time step. We prove that this particular extension is indeed guaranteed to identify interaction delays between two coupled systems and is the only relevant option in keeping with Wiener’s principle of causality. We demonstrate the performance of our approach in detecting interaction delays on finite data by numerical simulations of stochastic and deterministic processes, as well as on local field potential recordings. We also show the ability of the extended transfer entropy to detect the presence of multiple delays, as well as feedback loops. While evaluated on neuroscience data, we expect the estimator to be useful in other fields dealing with network dynamics
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