Background: Animal trade plays an important role for the spread of infectious
diseases in livestock populations. As a case study, we consider pig trade in
Germany, where trade actors (agricultural premises) form a complex network. The
central question is how infectious diseases can potentially spread within the
system of trade contacts. We address this question by analyzing the underlying
network of animal movements.
Methodology/Findings: The considered pig trade dataset spans several years
and is analyzed with respect to its potential to spread infectious diseases.
Focusing on measurements of network-topological properties, we avoid the usage
of external parameters, since these properties are independent of specific
pathogens. They are on the contrary of great importance for understanding any
general spreading process on this particular network. We analyze the system
using different network models, which include varying amounts of information:
(i) static network, (ii) network as a time series of uncorrelated snapshots,
(iii) temporal network, where causality is explicitly taken into account.
Findings: Our approach provides a general framework for a
topological-temporal characterization of livestock trade networks. We find that
a static network view captures many relevant aspects of the trade system, and
premises can be classified into two clearly defined risk classes. Moreover, our
results allow for an efficient allocation strategy for intervention measures
using centrality measures. Data on trade volume does barely alter the results
and is therefore of secondary importance. Although a static network description
yields useful results, the temporal resolution of data plays an outstanding
role for an in-depth understanding of spreading processes. This applies in
particular for an accurate calculation of the maximum outbreak size.Comment: main text 33 pages, 17 figures, supporting information 7 pages, 7
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