Cost analysis of nondeterministic probabilistic programs

We consider the problem of expected cost analysis over nondeterministic probabilistic programs, which aims at automated methods for analyzing the resource-usage of such programs. Previous approaches for this problem could only handle nonnegative bounded costs. However, in many scenarios, such as queuing networks or analysis of cryptocurrency protocols, both positive and negative costs are necessary and the costs are unbounded as well. In this work, we present a sound and efficient approach to obtain polynomial bounds on the expected accumulated cost of nondeterministic probabilistic programs. Our approach can handle (a) general positive and negative costs with bounded updates in variables; and (b) nonnegative costs with general updates to variables. We show that several natural examples which could not be handled by previous approaches are captured in our framework. Moreover, our approach leads to an efficient polynomial-time algorithm, while no previous approach for cost analysis of probabilistic programs could guarantee polynomial runtime. Finally, we show the effectiveness of our approach using experimental results on a variety of programs for which we efficiently synthesize tight resource-usage bounds

Cost Analysis of Nondeterministic Probabilistic Programs

We consider the problem of expected cost analysis over nondeterministic probabilistic programs, which aims at automated methods for analyzing the resource-usage of such programs. Previous approaches for this problem could only handle nonnegative bounded costs. However, in many scenarios, such as queuing networks or analysis of cryptocurrency protocols, both positive and negative costs are necessary and the costs are unbounded as well. In this work, we present a sound and efficient approach to obtain polynomial bounds on the expected accumulated cost of nondeterministic probabilistic programs. Our approach can handle (a) general positive and negative costs with bounded updates in variables; and (b) nonnegative costs with general updates to variables. We show that several natural examples which could not be handled by previous approaches are captured in our framework. Moreover, our approach leads to an efficient polynomial-time algorithm, while no previous approach for cost analysis of probabilistic programs could guarantee polynomial runtime. Finally, we show the effectiveness of our approach by presenting experimental results on a variety of programs, motivated by real-world applications, for which we efficiently synthesize tight resource-usage bounds.Comment: A conference version will appear in the 40th ACM Conference on Programming Language Design and Implementation (PLDI 2019

Algorithms and Hardness Results for Computing Cores of Markov Chains

Given a Markov chain M = (V, v_0, δ), with state space V and a starting state v_0, and a probability threshold ε, an ε-core is a subset C of states that is left with probability at most ε. More formally, C ⊆ V is an ε-core, iff ℙ[reach (V\C)] ≤ ε. Cores have been applied in a wide variety of verification problems over Markov chains, Markov decision processes, and probabilistic programs, as a means of discarding uninteresting and low-probability parts of a probabilistic system and instead being able to focus on the states that are likely to be encountered in a real-world run. In this work, we focus on the problem of computing a minimal ε-core in a Markov chain. Our contributions include both negative and positive results: (i) We show that the decision problem on the existence of an ε-core of a given size is NP-complete. This solves an open problem posed in [Jan Kretínský and Tobias Meggendorfer, 2020]. We additionally show that the problem remains NP-complete even when limited to acyclic Markov chains with bounded maximal vertex degree; (ii) We provide a polynomial time algorithm for computing a minimal ε-core on Markov chains over control-flow graphs of structured programs. A straightforward combination of our algorithm with standard branch prediction techniques allows one to apply the idea of cores to find a subset of program lines that are left with low probability and then focus any desired static analysis on this core subset

Quantitative Verification with Neural Networks

We present a data-driven approach to the quantitative verification of probabilistic programs and stochastic dynamical models. Our approach leverages neural networks to compute tight and sound bounds for the probability that a stochastic process hits a target condition within finite time. This problem subsumes a variety of quantitative verification questions, from the reachability and safety analysis of discrete-time stochastic dynamical models, to the study of assertion-violation and termination analysis of probabilistic programs. We rely on neural networks to represent supermartingale certificates that yield such probability bounds, which we compute using a counterexample-guided inductive synthesis loop: we train the neural certificate while tightening the probability bound over samples of the state space using stochastic optimisation, and then we formally check the certificate's validity over every possible state using satisfiability modulo theories; if we receive a counterexample, we add it to our set of samples and repeat the loop until validity is confirmed. We demonstrate on a diverse set of benchmarks that, thanks to the expressive power of neural networks, our method yields smaller or comparable probability bounds than existing symbolic methods in all cases, and that our approach succeeds on models that are entirely beyond the reach of such alternative techniques.Comment: The conference version of this manuscript appeared at CONCUR 202

Proving Expected Sensitivity of Probabilistic Programs with Randomized Variable-Dependent Termination Time

The notion of program sensitivity (aka Lipschitz continuity) specifies that changes in the program input result in proportional changes to the program output. For probabilistic programs the notion is naturally extended to expected sensitivity. A previous approach develops a relational program logic framework for proving expected sensitivity of probabilistic while loops, where the number of iterations is fixed and bounded. In this work, we consider probabilistic while loops where the number of iterations is not fixed, but randomized and depends on the initial input values. We present a sound approach for proving expected sensitivity of such programs. Our sound approach is martingale-based and can be automated through existing martingale-synthesis algorithms. Furthermore, our approach is compositional for sequential composition of while loops under a mild side condition. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several classical examples from Gambler's Ruin, stochastic hybrid systems and stochastic gradient descent. We also present experimental results showing that our automated approach can handle various probabilistic programs in the literature

On continuation-passing transformations and expected cost analysis

We define a continuation-passing style (CPS) translation for a typed \u3bb-calculus with probabilistic choice, unbounded recursion, and a tick operator - for modeling cost. The target language is a (non-probabilistic) \u3bb-calculus, enriched with a type of extended positive reals and a fixpoint operator. We then show that applying the CPS transform of an expression M to the continuation \u3bb v. 0 yields the expected cost of M. We also introduce a formal system for higher-order logic, called EHOL, prove it sound, and show it can derive tight upper bounds on the expected cost of classic examples, including Coupon Collector and Random Walk. Moreover, we relate our translation to Kaminski et al.'s ert-calculus, showing that the latter can be recovered by applying our CPS translation to (a generalization of) the classic embedding of imperative programs into \u3bb-calculus. Finally, we prove that the CPS transform of an expression can also be used to compute pre-expectations and to reason about almost sure termination

Proving expected sensitivity of probabilistic programs with randomized variable-dependent termination time

The notion of program sensitivity (aka Lipschitz continuity) specifies that changes in the program input result in proportional changes to the program output. For probabilistic programs the notion is naturally extended to expected sensitivity. A previous approach develops a relational program logic framework for proving expected sensitivity of probabilistic while loops, where the number of iterations is fixed and bounded. In this work, we consider probabilistic while loops where the number of iterations is not fixed, but randomized and depends on the initial input values. We present a sound approach for proving expected sensitivity of such programs. Our sound approach is martingale-based and can be automated through existing martingale-synthesis algorithms. Furthermore, our approach is compositional for sequential composition of while loops under a mild side condition. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several classical examples from Gambler's Ruin, stochastic hybrid systems and stochastic gradient descent. We also present experimental results showing that our automated approach can handle various probabilistic programs in the literature