Guaranteed parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic systems using improved bounding techniques

This paper is concerned with guaranteed parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic systems in a context of bounded measurement error. The problem consists of finding - or approximating as closely as possible - the set of all possible parameter values such that the predicted outputs match the corresponding measurements within prescribed error bounds. An exhaustive search procedure is applied, whereby the parameter set is successively partitioned into smaller boxes and exclusion tests are performed to eliminate some of these boxes, until a prespecified threshold on the approximation level is met. Exclusion tests rely on the ability to bound the solution set of the dynamic system for a given parameter subset and the tightness of these bounds is therefore paramount. Equally important is the time required to compute the bounds, thereby defining a trade-off. It is the objective of this paper to investigate this trade-off by comparing various bounding techniques based on interval arithmetic, Taylor model arithmetic and ellipsoidal calculus. When applied to a simple case study, ellipsoidal and Taylor model approaches are found to reduce the number of iterations significantly compared to interval analysis, yet the overall computational time is only reduced for tight approximation levels due to the computational overhead. © 2013 EUCA

Branch-and-lift algorithm for deterministic global optimization in nonlinear optimal control

This paper presents a branch-and-lift algorithm for solving optimal control problems with smooth nonlinear dynamics and potentially nonconvex objective and constraint functionals to guaranteed global optimality. This algorithm features a direct sequential method and builds upon a generic, spatial branch-and-bound algorithm. A new operation, called lifting, is introduced, which refines the control parameterization via a Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization process, while simultaneously eliminating control subregions that are either infeasible or that provably cannot contain any global optima. Conditions are given under which the image of the control parameterization error in the state space contracts exponentially as the parameterization order is increased, thereby making the lifting operation efficient. A computational technique based on ellipsoidal calculus is also developed that satisfies these conditions. The practical applicability of branch-and-lift is illustrated in a numerical example. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York

Chebyshev model arithmetic for factorable functions

This article presents an arithmetic for the computation of Chebyshev models for factorable functions and an analysis of their convergence properties. Similar to Taylor models, Chebyshev models consist of a pair of a multivariate polynomial approximating the factorable function and an interval remainder term bounding the actual gap with this polynomial approximant. Propagation rules and local convergence bounds are established for the addition, multiplication and composition operations with Chebyshev models. The global convergence of this arithmetic as the polynomial expansion order increases is also discussed. A generic implementation of Chebyshev model arithmetic is available in the library MC++. It is shown through several numerical case studies that Chebyshev models provide tighter bounds than their Taylor model counterparts, but this comes at the price of extra computational burden

Bounding stationary averages of polynomial diffusions via semidefinite programming

We introduce an algorithm based on semidefinite programming that yields increasing (resp. decreasing) sequences of lower (resp. upper) bounds on polynomial stationary averages of diffusions with polynomial drift vector and diffusion coefficients. The bounds are obtained by optimising an objective, determined by the stationary average of interest, over the set of real vectors defined by certain linear equalities and semidefinite inequalities which are satisfied by the moments of any stationary measure of the diffusion. We exemplify the use of the approach through several applications: a Bayesian inference problem; the computation of Lyapunov exponents of linear ordinary differential equations perturbed by multiplicative white noise; and a reliability problem from structural mechanics. Additionally, we prove that the bounds converge to the infimum and supremum of the set of stationary averages for certain SDEs associated with the computation of the Lyapunov exponents, and we provide numerical evidence of convergence in more general settings

Unified Framework for the Propagation of Continuous-Time Enclosures for Parametric Nonlinear ODEs

Abstract This paper presents a framework for constructing and analyzing enclosures of the reachable set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) using continuous-time setpropagation methods. The focus is on convex enclosures that can be characterized in terms of their support functions. A generalized differential inequality is introduced, whose solutions describe such support functions for a convex enclosure of the reachable set under mild conditions. It is shown that existing continuous-time bounding methods that are based on standard differential inequalities or ellipsoidal set propagation techniques can be recovered as special cases of this generalized differential inequality. A way of extending this approach for the construction of nonconvex enclosures is also described, which relies on Taylor models with convex remainder bounds. This unifying framework provides a means for analyzing the convergence properties of continuous-time enclosure methods. The enclosure techniques and convergence results are illustrated with numerical case studies throughout the paper, including a six-state dynamic model of anaerobic digestion