A Bayesian approach to discrete object detection in astronomical datasets

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting and characterising the signal from discrete objects embedded in a diffuse background. The approach centres around the evaluation of the posterior distribution for the parameters of the discrete objects, given the observed data, and defines the theoretically-optimal procedure for parametrised object detection. Two alternative strategies are investigated: the simultaneous detection of all the discrete objects in the dataset, and the iterative detection of objects. In both cases, the parameter space characterising the object(s) is explored using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo sampling. For the iterative detection of objects, another approach is to locate the global maximum of the posterior at each iteration using a simulated annealing downhill simplex algorithm. The techniques are applied to a two-dimensional toy problem consisting of Gaussian objects embedded in uncorrelated pixel noise. A cosmological illustration of the iterative approach is also presented, in which the thermal and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects from clusters of galaxies are detected in microwave maps dominated by emission from primordial cosmic microwave background anisotropies.Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures, accepted by MNRAS; contains some additional material in response to referee's comment

Gaussian process regression for virtual metrology of microchip quality and the resulting strategic sampling scheme

Manufacturing of integrated circuits involves many sequential processes, often ex- ecuted to nanoscale tolerances, and the yield depends on the often unmeasured quality of intermediate steps. In the high-throughput industry of fabricating microelectronics on semi-conducting wafers, scheduling measurements of product quality before the electrical test of the complete IC can be expensive. We therefore seek to predict metrics of product quality based on sensor readings describing the environment within the relevant tool during the processing of each wafer, or to apply the concept of virtual metrology (VM) to monitor these intermediate steps. We model the data using Gaussian process regression (GPR), adapted to simultaneously learn the nonlinear dynamics that govern the quality characteristic, as well as their operating space, expressed by a linear embedding of the sensor traces’ features. Such Bayesian models predict a distribution for the target metric, such as a critical dimension, so one may assess the model’s credibility through its predictive uncertainty. Assuming measurements of the quality characteristic of interest are budgeted, we seek to hasten convergence of the GPR model to a credible form through an active sampling scheme, whereby the predictive uncertainty informs which wafer’s quality to measure next. We evaluate this convergence when predicting and updating online, as if in a factory, using a large dataset for plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD), with measured thicknesses for ~32,000 wafers. By approximately optimizing the information extracted from this seemingly repetitive data describing a tightly controlled process, GPR achieves ~10% greater accuracy on average than a baseline linear model based on partial least squares (PLS). In a derivative study, we seek to discern the degree of drift in the process over the several months the data spans. We express this drift by how unusual the relevant features, as embedded by the GPR model, appear as the in- puts compensate for degrading conditions. This method detects the onset of consistently unusual behavior that extends to a bimodal thickness fault, anticipating its flagging by as much as two days.Mechanical Engineerin

Stochastic approximation of score functions for Gaussian processes

We discuss the statistical properties of a recently introduced unbiased stochastic approximation to the score equations for maximum likelihood calculation for Gaussian processes. Under certain conditions, including bounded condition number of the covariance matrix, the approach achieves $O(n)$ storage and nearly $O(n)$ computational effort per optimization step, where $n$ is the number of data sites. Here, we prove that if the condition number of the covariance matrix is bounded, then the approximate score equations are nearly optimal in a well-defined sense. Therefore, not only is the approximation efficient to compute, but it also has comparable statistical properties to the exact maximum likelihood estimates. We discuss a modification of the stochastic approximation in which design elements of the stochastic terms mimic patterns from a $2^n$ factorial design. We prove these designs are always at least as good as the unstructured design, and we demonstrate through simulation that they can produce a substantial improvement over random designs. Our findings are validated by numerical experiments on simulated data sets of up to 1 million observations. We apply the approach to fit a space-time model to over 80,000 observations of total column ozone contained in the latitude band $40^{\circ}$-$50^{\circ}$N during April 2012.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS627 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Competitive function approximation for reinforcement learning

The application of reinforcement learning to problems with continuous domains requires representing the value function by means of function approximation. We identify two aspects of reinforcement learning that make the function approximation process hard: non-stationarity of the target function and biased sampling. Non-stationarity is the result of the bootstrapping nature of dynamic programming where the value function is estimated using its current approximation. Biased sampling occurs when some regions of the state space are visited too often, causing a reiterated updating with similar values which fade out the occasional updates of infrequently sampled regions. We propose a competitive approach for function approximation where many different local approximators are available at a given input and the one with expectedly best approximation is selected by means of a relevance function. The local nature of the approximators allows their fast adaptation to non-stationary changes and mitigates the biased sampling problem. The coexistence of multiple approximators updated and tried in parallel permits obtaining a good estimation much faster than would be possible with a single approximator. Experiments in different benchmark problems show that the competitive strategy provides a faster and more stable learning than non-competitive approaches.Preprin