Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Managing Climatic Risks to Combat Land Degradation and Enhance Food security: Key Information Needs

This paper discusses the key information needs to reduce the negative impacts of weather variability and climate change on land degradation and food security, and identifies the opportunities and barriers between the information and services needed. It suggests that vulnerability assessments based on a livelihood concept that includes climate information and key socio-economic variables can overcome the narrow focus of common one-dimensional vulnerability studies. Both current and future climatic risks can be managed better if there is appropriate policy and institutional support together with technological interventions to address the complexities of multiple risks that agriculture has to face. This would require effective partnerships among agencies dealing with meteorological and hydrological services, agricultural research, land degradation and food security issues. In addition a state-of-the-art infrastructure to measure, record, store and disseminate data on weather variables, and access to weather and seasonal climate forecasts at desired spatial and temporal scales would be needed

Workshop report: Integrated Food Security Modeling in Eastern and Southern Africa

CCAFS organized a workshop on Integrated Food Security Modeling in Eastern and Southern Africa on 10-13 February 2014 in Nairobi, Kenya. The workshop was attended by participants from global, regional, and national institutions, including: the World Food Programme (WFP); the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), USAID Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET); the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC); the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES); CGIAR Research Centers (CIMMYT, CIAT, ICRISAT, ICRAF, CIP, ILRI, AfricaRice, IRRI,); and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS); Workshop presentations and discussions accomplished the following objectives: The concepts and components of Integrated Food Security Modeling were explained along with descriptions, methodologies, and progress of work for current modeling activities in Eastern Africa and globally, including climate models, bio-physical crop models, and econometric models. Data and knowledge gaps, technical challenges, and uncertainties which constrain the accuracy of model outputs were identified, including lack of access to data in formats suitable for model input, data quality issues, errors arising from the aggregation of data collected at points to represent heterogenous areas, and the challenge of quantifying uncertainty when different models are combined. Challenges specific to the region include improving the skill of seasonal climate forecasts for East Africa, adopting the crop models to smallholder farming systems. Institutions participating in in the workshop agreed to prepare a concept note for research on these topics and submit it to CCAFS for funding consideration under Flagship 2: Climate Information Services and Climate-informed Safety Nets

Epigenetic inheritance. Concepts, mechanisms and perspectives

Parents' stressful experiences can influence an offspring's vulnerability to many pathological conditions, including psychopathologies, and their effects may even endure for several generations. Nevertheless, the cause of this phenomenon has not been determined, and only recently have scientists turned to epigenetics to answer this question. There is extensive literature on epigenetics, but no consensus exists with regard to how and what can (and must) be considered to study and define epigenetics processes and their inheritance. In this work, we aimed to clarify and systematize these concepts. To this end, we analyzed the dynamics of epigenetic changes over time in detail and defined three types of epigenetics: a direct form of epigenetics (DE) and two indirect epigenetic processes-within (WIE) and across (AIE). DE refers to changes that occur in the lifespan of an individual, due to direct experiences with his environment. WIE concerns changes that occur inside of the womb, due to events during gestation. Finally, AIE defines changes that affect the individual's predecessors (parents, grandparents, etc.), due to events that occur even long before conception and that are somehow (e.g., through gametes, the intrauterine environment setting) transmitted across generations. This distinction allows us to organize the main body of epigenetic evidence according to these categories and then focus on the latter (AIE), referring to it as a faster route of informational transmission across generations-compared with genetic inheritance-that guides human evolution in a Lamarckian (i.e., experience-dependent) manner. Of the molecular processes that are implicated in this phenomenon, well-known (methylation) and novel (non-coding RNA, ncRNA) regulatory mechanisms are converging. Our discussion of the chief methods that are used to study epigenetic inheritance highlights the most compelling technical and theoretical problems of this discipline. Experimental suggestions to expand this field are provided, and their practical and ethical implications are discussed extensivel

Water, health and early warnings

Water management is the focus in the first section, in which a number of projects are described whereby historical and forecast information is used directly in planning specific actions; in this case the forecaster-user chain is short and manageable at a personal level. Next is a detailed account of the steps required to establish climate services in the health area. Finally, Early Warning Systems are described. Early Warning Systems have not tended to use predictions until recently, traditionally having been built around historical observations. In that context Early Warning Systems provide an example of an application mainly designed for humanitarian benefit built solely using climate data alongside other information, but with growing use of predictions. A worked example is included establishing the impact of climate variability on disease incidence, the results of which provide a basis for incorporating seasonal climate forecasts into a Malaria Early Warning System in southern Africa