Payment for Environmental Services: First Global Inventory of Schemes Provisioning Water for Cities

In the perspective of the World Water Day 2011 - "Water for Cities" (March 22, 2011), the Natural Resources Land and Water Division (NRL) of FAO has launched an inventory of environmental schemes provisioning water to cities. Up to date there have been several studies addressing the payment for watershed services around the world, conducted by various UN agencies, NGOs, etc. None of these studies so far has focused on the PES schemes providing the water supply for cities and industries, i.e. urban areas. In that sense this inventory is unique. The report offers a very useful inventory of identified PES - "water for cities" schemes around the world. The report can be used as basis for further pursuit of information and analysis of the most relevant cases at least, and possible replication of these cases, primarily in East Africa that has become an area of interest lately for the potential development of this market based scheme in order to address the water issues of the region

Constitution-Making: A Process Filled with Constraint

Constitutions are generally made by people with no previous experience in constitution making. The assistance they receive from outsiders is often less useful than it may appear. The most pertinent foreign experience may reside in distant countries, whose lessons are unknown or inaccessible. Moreover, although constitutions are intended to endure, they are often products of the particular crisis that forced their creation. Drafters are usually heavily affected by a desire to avoid repeating unpleasant historical experiences or to emulate what seem to be successful constitutional models. Theirs is a heavily constrained environment, made even more so by distrust and dissensus if the constitution follows a protracted period of internal conflict. Given all these conditions, drafting a constitution that is apt for the problems faced by the drafters is difficult, and prospects are not enhanced by advice that drafters follow a uniform constitutional process that emphasizes openness and public participation above all other values

Robust optimisation of urban drought security for an uncertain climate

Abstract Recent experience with drought and a shifting climate has highlighted the vulnerability of urban water supplies to “running out of water” in Perth, south-east Queensland, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide and has triggered major investment in water source infrastructure which ultimately will run into tens of billions of dollars. With the prospect of continuing population growth in major cities, the provision of acceptable drought security will become more pressing particularly if the future climate becomes drier. Decision makers need to deal with significant uncertainty about future climate and population. In particular the science of climate change is such that the accuracy of model predictions of future climate is limited by fundamental irreducible uncertainties. It would be unwise to unduly rely on projections made by climate models and prudent to favour solutions that are robust across a range of possible climate futures. This study presents and demonstrates a methodology that addresses the problem of finding “good” solutions for urban bulk water systems in the presence of deep uncertainty about future climate. The methodology involves three key steps: 1) Build a simulation model of the bulk water system; 2) Construct replicates of future climate that reproduce natural variability seen in the instrumental record and that reflect a plausible range of future climates; and 3) Use multi-objective optimisation to efficiently search through potentially trillions of solutions to identify a set of “good” solutions that optimally trade-off expected performance against robustness or sensitivity of performance over the range of future climates. A case study based on the Lower Hunter in New South Wales demonstrates the methodology. It is important to note that the case study does not consider the full suite of options and objectives; preliminary information on plausible options has been generalised for demonstration purposes and therefore its results should only be used in the context of evaluating the methodology. “Dry” and “wet” climate scenarios that represent the likely span of climate in 2070 based on the A1F1 emissions scenario were constructed. Using the WATHNET5 model, a simulation model of the Lower Hunter was constructed and validated. The search for “good” solutions was conducted by minimizing two criteria, 1) the expected present worth cost of capital and operational costs and social costs due to restrictions and emergency rationing, and 2) the difference in present worth cost between the “dry” and “wet” 2070 climate scenarios. The constraint was imposed that solutions must be able to supply (reduced) demand in the worst drought. Two demand scenarios were considered, “1.28 x current demand” representing expected consumption in 2060 and “2 x current demand” representing a highly stressed system. The optimisation considered a representative range of options including desalination, new surface water sources, demand substitution using rainwater tanks, drought contingency measures and operating rules. It was found the sensitivity of solutions to uncertainty about future climate varied considerably. For the “1.28 x demand” scenario there was limited sensitivity to the climate scenarios resulting in a narrow range of trade-offs. In contrast, for the “2 x demand” scenario, the trade-off between expected present worth cost and robustness was considerable. The main policy implication is that (possibly large) uncertainty about future climate may not necessarily produce significantly different performance trajectories. The sensitivity is determined not only by differences between climate scenarios but also by other external stresses imposed on the system such as population growth and by constraints on the available options to secure the system against drought. Recent experience with drought and a shifting climate has highlighted the vulnerability of urban water supplies to “running out of water” in Perth, south-east Queensland, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide and has triggered major investment in water source infrastructure which ultimately will run into tens of billions of dollars. With the prospect of continuing population growth in major cities, the provision of acceptable drought security will become more pressing particularly if the future climate becomes drier. Decision makers need to deal with significant uncertainty about future climate and population. In particular the science of climate change is such that the accuracy of model predictions of future climate is limited by fundamental irreducible uncertainties. It would be unwise to unduly rely on projections made by climate models and prudent to favour solutions that are robust across a range of possible climate futures. This study presents and demonstrates a methodology that addresses the problem of finding “good” solutions for urban bulk water systems in the presence of deep uncertainty about future climate. The methodology involves three key steps: 1) Build a simulation model of the bulk water system; 2) Construct replicates of future climate that reproduce natural variability seen in the instrumental record and that reflect a plausible range of future climates; and 3) Use multi-objective optimisation to efficiently search through potentially trillions of solutions to identify a set of “good” solutions that optimally trade-off expected performance against robustness or sensitivity of performance over the range of future climates. A case study based on the Lower Hunter in New South Wales demonstrates the methodology. It is important to note that the case study does not consider the full suite of options and objectives; preliminary information on plausible options has been generalised for demonstration purposes and therefore its results should only be used in the context of evaluating the methodology. “Dry” and “wet” climate scenarios that represent the likely span of climate in 2070 based on the A1F1 emissions scenario were constructed. Using the WATHNET5 model, a simulation model of the Lower Hunter was constructed and validated. The search for “good” solutions was conducted by minimizing two criteria, 1) the expected present worth cost of capital and operational costs and social costs due to restrictions and emergency rationing, and 2) the difference in present worth cost between the “dry” and “wet” 2070 climate scenarios. The constraint was imposed that solutions must be able to supply (reduced) demand in the worst drought. Two demand scenarios were considered, “1.28 x current demand” representing expected consumption in 2060 and “2 x current demand” representing a highly stressed system. The optimisation considered a representative range of options including desalination, new surface water sources, demand substitution using rainwater tanks, drought contingency measures and operating rules. It was found the sensitivity of solutions to uncertainty about future climate varied considerably. For the “1.28 x demand” scenario there was limited sensitivity to the climate scenarios resulting in a narrow range of trade-offs. In contrast, for the “2 x demand” scenario, the trade-off between expected present worth cost and robustness was considerable. The main policy implication is that (possibly large) uncertainty about future climate may not necessarily produce significantly different performance trajectories. The sensitivity is determined not only by differences between climate scenarios but also by other external stresses imposed on the system such as population growth and by constraints on the available options to secure the system against drought. Please cite this report as: Mortazavi, M, Kuczera, G, Kiem, AS, Henley, B, Berghout, B,Turner, E, 2013 Robust optimisation of urban drought security for an uncertain climate. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 74

Potential synergies between existing multilateral environmental agreements in the implementation of Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry activities

There is potential for synergy between the global environmental conventions on climate change, biodiversity and desertification: changes in land management and land use undertaken to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions can simultaneously deliver positive outcomes for conservation of biodiversity, and mitigation of desertification and land degradation. However, while there can be complementarities between the three environmental goals, there are often tradeoffs. Thus, the challenge lies in developing land use policies that promote optimal environmental outcomes, and in implementing these locally to promote sustainable development. The paper considers synergies and tradeoffs in implementing land use measures to address the objectives of the three global environmental conventions, both from an environmental and economic perspective. The intention is to provide environmental scientists and policy makers with a broad overview of these considerations, and the benefits of addressing the conventions simultaneously.Climate change, LULUCF, Biodiversity, Desertification, Sustainable development.

A stochastic multiple players multi-issues bargaining model for the Piave river basin

The objective of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of non-cooperative bargaining theory for the analysis of negotiations on water allocation and management. We explore the impacts of different economic incentives, a stochastic environment and varying individual preferences on players’ strategies and equilibrium outcomes through numerical simulations of a multilateral, multiple issues, non-cooperative bargaining model of water allocation in the Piave River Basin, in the North East of Italy. Players negotiate in an alternating-offer manner over the sharing of water resources (quantity and quality). Exogenous uncertainty over the size of the negotiated amount of water is introduced to capture the fact that water availability is not known with certainty to negotiating players. We construct the players’ objective function with their direct input. We then test the applicability of our multiple players, multi-issues, stochastic framework to a specific water allocation problem and conduct comparative static analyses to assess sources of bargaining power. Finally, we explore the implications of different attitudes and beliefs over water availability.Bargaining, non-cooperative game theory, simulation models, uncertainty

Integrated Solutions Development Capital Solutions Interim Report Volume I: Report

This report analyzes the water quality, flood, erosion, and integrated scores of multiple Austin watersheds, including Waller Creek.Waller Creek Working Grou

A contribution to support decision making in energy/water sypply chain optimisation

The seeking of process sustainability forces enterprises to change their operations. Additionally, the industrial globalization implies a very dynamic market that, among other issues, promotes the enterprises competition. Therefore, the efficient control and use of their Key Performance Indicators, including profitability, cost reduction, demand satisfaction and environmental impact associated to the development of new products, is a significant challenge. All the above indicators can be efficiently controlled through the Supply Chain Management. Thus, companies work towards the optimization of their individual operations under competitive environments taking advantage of the flexibility provided by the virtually inexistent world market restrictions. This is achieved by the coordination of the resource flows, across all the entities and echelons belonging to the system network. Nevertheless, such coordination is significantly complicated if considering the presence of uncertainty and even more if seeking for a win-win outcome. The purpose of this thesis is extending the current decision making strategies to expedite these tasks in industrial processes. Such a contribution is based on the development of efficient mathematical models that allows coordinating large amount of information synchronizing the production and distribution tasks in terms of economic, environmental and social criteria. This thesis starts presents an overview of the requirements of sustainable production processes, describing and analyzing the current methods and tools used and identifying the most relevant open issues. All the above is always within the framework of Process System Engineering literature. The second part of this thesis is focused in stressing the current Multi-Objective solution strategies. During this part, first explores how the profitability of the Supply Chain can be enhanced by considering simultaneously multiple objectives under demand uncertainties. Particularly, solution frameworks have been proposed in which different multi-criteria decision making strategies have been combined with stochastic approaches. Furthermore, additional performance indicators (including financial and operational ones) have been included in the same solution framework to evaluate its capabilities. This framework was also applied to decentralized supply chains problems in order to explore its capabilities to produce solution that improves the performances of each one of the SC entities simultaneously. Consequently, a new generalized mathematical formulation which integrates many performance indicators in the production process within a supply chain is efficiently solved. Afterwards, the third part of the thesis extends the proposed solution framework to address the uncertainty management. Particularly, the consideration of different types and sources of uncertainty (e.g. external and internal ones) where considered, through the implementation of preventive approaches. This part also explores the use of solution strategies that efficiently selects the number of scenarios that represent the uncertainty conditions. Finally, the importance and effect of each uncertainty source over the process performance is detailed analyzed through the use of surrogate models that promote the sensitivity analysis of those uncertainties. The third part of this thesis is focused on the integration of the above multi-objective and uncertainty approaches for the optimization of a sustainable Supply Chain. Besides the integration of different solution approaches, this part also considers the integration of hierarchical decision levels, by the exploitation of mathematical models that assess the consequences of considering simultaneously design and planning decisions under centralized and decentralized Supply Chains. Finally, the last part of this thesis provides the final conclusions and further work to be developed.La globalización industrial genera un ambiente dinámico en los mercados que, entre otras cosas, promueve la competencia entre corporaciones. Por lo tanto, el uso eficiente de las los indicadores de rendimiento, incluyendo rentabilidad, satisfacción de la demanda y en general el impacto ambiental, representa un area de oportunidad importante. El control de estos indicadores tiene un efecto positivo si se combinan con la gestión de cadena de suministro. Por lo tanto, las compañías buscan definir sus operaciones para permanecer activas dentro de un ambiente competitivo, tomando en cuenta las restricciones en el mercado mundial. Lo anterior puede ser logrado mediante la coordinación de los flujos de recursos a través de todas las entidades y escalones pertenecientes a la red del sistema. Sin embargo, dicha coordinación se complica significativamente si se quiere considerar la presencia de incertidumbre, y aún más, si se busca exclusivamente un ganar-ganar. El propósito de esta tesis es extender el alcance de las estrategias de toma de decisiones con el fin de facilitar estas tareas dentro de procesos industriales. Estas contribuciones se basan en el desarrollo de modelos matemáticos eficientes que permitan coordinar grandes cantidades de información sincronizando las tareas de producción y distribución en términos económicos, ambientales y sociales. Esta tesis inicia presentando una visión global de los requerimientos de un proceso de producción sostenible, describiendo y analizando los métodos y herramientas actuales así como identificando las áreas de oportunidad más relevantes dentro del marco de ingeniería de procesos La segunda parte se enfoca en enfatizar las capacidades de las estrategias de solución multi-objetivo, durante la cual, se explora el mejoramiento de la rentabilidad de la cadena de suministro considerando múltiples objetivos bajo incertidumbres en la demanda. Particularmente, diferentes marcos de solución han sido propuestos en los que varias estrategias de toma de decisión multi-criterio han sido combinadas con aproximaciones estocásticas. Por otra parte, indicadores de rendimiento (incluyendo financiero y operacional) han sido incluidos en el mismo marco de solución para evaluar sus capacidades. Este marco fue aplicado también a problemas de cadenas de suministro descentralizados con el fin de explorar sus capacidades de producir soluciones que mejoran simultáneamente el rendimiento para cada uno de las entidades dentro de la cadena de suministro. Consecuentemente, una nueva formulación que integra varios indicadores de rendimiento en los procesos de producción fue propuesta y validada. La tercera parte de la tesis extiende el marco de solución propuesto para abordar el manejo de incertidumbres. Particularmente, la consideración de diferentes tipos y fuentes de incertidumbre (p.ej. externos e internos) fueron considerados, mediante la implementación de aproximaciones preventivas. Esta parte también explora el uso de estrategias de solución que elige eficientemente el número de escenarios necesario que representan las condiciones inciertas. Finalmente, la importancia y efecto de cada una de las fuentes de incertidumbre sobre el rendimiento del proceso es analizado en detalle mediante el uso de meta modelos que promueven el análisis de sensibilidad de dichas incertidumbres. La tercera parte de esta tesis se enfoca en la integración de las metodologías de multi-objetivo e incertidumbre anteriormente expuestas para la optimización de cadenas de suministro sostenibles. Además de la integración de diferentes métodos. Esta parte también considera la integración de diferentes niveles jerárquicos de decisión, mediante el aprovechamiento de modelos matemáticos que evalúan lasconsecuencias de considerar simultáneamente las decisiones de diseño y planeación de una cadena de suministro centralizada y descentralizada. La parte final de la tesis detalla las conclusiones y el trabajo a futuro necesario sobre esta línea de investigaciónPostprint (published version

A Stochastic Multiple Players Multi-Issues Bargaining Model for the Piave River Basin

The objective of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of non-cooperative bargaining theory for the analysis of negotiations on water allocation and management. We explore the impacts of different economic incentives, a stochastic environment and varying individual preferences on players’ strategies and equilibrium outcomes through numerical simulations of a multilateral, multiple issues, non-cooperative bargaining model of water allocation in the Piave River Basin, in the North East of Italy. Players negotiate in an alternating-offer manner over the sharing of water resources (quantity and quality). Exogenous uncertainty over the size of the negotiated amount of water is introduced to capture the fact that water availability is not known with certainty to negotiating players. We construct the players’ objective function with their direct input. We then test the applicability of our multiple players, multi-issues, stochastic framework to a specific water allocation problem and conduct comparative static analyses to assess sources of bargaining power. Finally, we explore the implications of different attitudes and beliefs over water availability.bargaining, non-cooperative game theory, simulation models, uncertainty

All that Glitters: A Review of Payments for Watershed Services in Developing Countries

This report reviews the current status of payments for watershed services in developing countries. It highlights the main trends in the evolution of these schemes, synthesising the available evidence on their environmental and social impacts, and drawing lessons for the design of future initiatives. The interest in payments for watershed services (PWS) as a tool for watershed management in developing countries is growing, despite major setbacks. This review identified 50 ongoing schemes, 8 advanced proposals and 37 preliminary proposals for PWS. A previous review published by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) on markets and payments for environmental services (Silver Bullet or Fools' Gold? (Landell-Mills and Porras 2002)) identified just 41 proposed and ongoing PWS schemes in developing countries, which suggests a considerable growth in interest in this approach