Weak States and Global Threats: Assessing Evidence of Spillovers

A key motivation behind recent donor attention and financial resources devoted to developing countries is the presumed connection between weak and failing states, on the one hand, and a variety of transnational threats, on the other. Indeed, it has become conventional wisdom that poorly performing states generate multiple cross-border “spillovers,” including terrorism, weapons proliferation, organized crime, regional instability, global pandemics, and energy insecurity. What is striking is how little empirical evidence underpins such sweeping assertions. A closer look suggests that the connection between state weakness and global threats is less clear and more variable than typically assumed. Both the type and extent of “spillovers” depend in part on whether the weakness in question is a function of state capacity, will, or a combination of the two. Moreover, a preliminary review suggests that some trans-border threats are more likely to emerge not from the weakest states but from stronger states that possess narrower but critical gaps in capacity and will. Crafting an effective U.S. and international strategy towards weak states and the cross-border spillovers they sometimes generate will depend on a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms linking these two sets of phenomena. The challenge for analysts and policymakers will be to get greater clarity about which states are responsible for which threats and design development and other external interventions accordingly. This working paper represents an initial foray in this direction, suggesting avenues for future research and policy development.weak state, failing state, regional instability, global threats

Shifting Geopolitics: Reimagining Globalization and Spatial Representation in the Post COVID-19 Era

Abstract: Since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the utilisation of maps has been at the forefront. Maps have informed policymakers, governments, and citizens of the distribution and spread of the disease. Although these maps have been used for various purposes, from border closures to curfews, there is an inherent danger in this widespread usage. Aside from the intricacy of these spatial representations, these widely distributed representations encourage isolationism and the reconception of borders in an increasingly globalised world. Furthermore, new connectivities through digital means have created a potential solution to international exchanges amidst physical limitations. Nevertheless, elitism prevents the effective distribution of resources from technical services to vaccines. The divide results in changing socio-economic relations and a growing need for international transparency and cooperation. Additionally, a facet of this elitism is the role of borders, which contributes to growing divides between countries. Therefore, the fracturing of spatial imaginaries translates to a spatial reality. This encourages a perspective of othering - potentially encouraging xenophobia and straining relations from Western, industrialised countries. This paper elucidates these emerging realities from the COVID-19 pandemic. A triangulation of source material critically engages and examines the dynamics of borders, exclusion, and the potential outcomes for reimagining globalisation in a post- COVID world. Ultimately, the contestation of public health has contributed to a new epoch within international relations, leaving societies to reconsider their connectivities

Exploring Botnet Evolution via Multidimensional Models and Visualisation

A botnet is a program designed to perform a specific task using multiple computers connected in a network. In this paper we will focus on botnets being used to distribute malicious programs. In the real world, botnets have been shown to exhibit more aggressive and sophisticated behaviour than traditional malware. Botnets are used to infect computer networks and hence their success depends on the properties of the networks. We observe the behaviour of mathematical models used to describe botnets when botnet parameters are varied to understand if such variation is beneficial to their spread. We also introduce novel models for depicting botnet behaviour using master equations. These models, unlike previous ones, address nodes of distinct categories in a network as a sequence of probability distributions rather than a value at each time interval. We also contribute visualisations for these models. This paper is a substantial expansion of unpublished work the first author performed while on a Nuffield student research placement, with the second author the project supervisor

Battlefield malware and the fight against cyber crime

Relatório apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para o cumprimento do programa de Pós-Doutoramento em Ciências da InformaçãoOur cyber space is quickly becoming over-whelmed with ever-evolving malware that breaches all security defenses, works viciously in the background without user awareness or interaction, and secretly leaks of confidential business data. One of the most pressing challenges faced by business organizations when they experience a cyber-attack is that, more often than not, those organizations do not have the knowledge nor readiness of how to analyze malware once it has been discovered on their production computer networks. The objective of this six months post-doctoral project is to present the fundamentals of malware reverse-engineering, the tools and techniques needed to properly analyze malicious programs to determine their characteristics which can prove extremely helpful when investigating data breaches. Those tools and techniques will provide insights to incident response teams and digital investigation professionals. In order to stop hackers in their tracks and beat cyber criminals in their own game, we need to equip cyber security professionals with the knowledge and skills necessary to detect and respond to malware attacks. Learning and mastering the inner workings of malware will help in the fight against the ever-changing malware landscape.N/

Modelling and controlling infectious diseases

The financial support by IDRC has made it much easier to put together network activities involving scientists in both countries, a special example is the large presence of the Chinese students in the 2012 Summer School on Mathematics for Public Health the Canadian group organized in Edmonton in May of 2012.Infectious disease control is a major challenge in China due to China’s fast growing economy, changing social networks and evolving health service infrastructures. The success of disease control in China has a profound impact beyond its borders. In support of better disease control, this five year research program was designed to enhance China’s national capacity for analyzing, modeling and predicting transmission dynamics of infectious diseases through joint research, training young scientists, and building collaborative relationships. This successful program was led by the National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention (Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, China) and the Centre for Disease Modeling (York University, Canada), and involved a number of Canadian and Chinese universities in various areas of infectious disease modelling and control. The bilateral collaboration also trained numerous highly qualified personnel and built a network for sustaining collaboration. This capacity building was facilitated by joint projects and bilateral annual meetings in major cities in China and Canada. The research activities on modeling major public health threats of infectious diseases focused on major diseases in China and/or issues of global public health concern including HIV transmission and prevention among high risk population, HIV treatment and drug resistance, influenza, schistosomiasis, mutation and stemma of SIV and HIV, latent and active tuberculosis infection, HBV control and vaccination. The outputs of the project were reported through peer-reviewed publications and modelling– based and science-informed public policy recommendations

Klipsun Magazine, 2009, Volume 39, Issue 04 - April

They say beauty is more than skin deep, but that does not mean we should discount skin altogether. Skin plays an integral role in shaping personality and character since the way people choose to clothe, decorate or care for their skin can tell a story about who they are. The theme of this issue is “Skin Deep” because the stories explore attitudes toward skin that create various life circumstances. For example, one article discusses burlesque dancers who participate in the revealing art form because they say it makes them feel less self- conscious and more comfortable in their own skin. In another, more intense story, readers learn what life is like for people who view their skin as a coping device, so they participate in self-injury. Because the appearance and health of skin undoubtedly play a major role in everyone’s lives, the way some people choose to treat their skin can seem either fascinating or shocking, depending on how unusual the circumstances are. If you really want to read an outrageous account— try checking out the article about body suspension, which requires participants to “hang out,” or dangle above ground from hooks pierced through their skin. As you are about to find out, there are tons of ways to think about skin, and the wide range of stories in this “Skin Deep” issue are a testament to that fact.https://cedar.wwu.edu/klipsun_magazine/1134/thumbnail.jp

Malaria in Pacific populations: Seen but not heard?

Most Pacific Island countries are located in the tropics, where there is an abundance of mosquitoes with the potential to carry debilitating or life-threatening vector-borne diseases. This article examines three Melanesian countries in which malaria is endemic - Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu - but the threat posed by the spread of malaria gives the issues a broader significance to the Pacific region. After discussing the spatial distribution and prevalence of malaria in the Pacific, the article examines a number of health interventions through which people have sought to control malaria. Although the disease was nearly eradicated in the Pacific in the 1970s, it is no longer in retreat. The article concludes by examining why there are still grounds for cautious optimism, and the challenges that Pacific Island countries face in reducing the impact of malaria on their populations. There is a need for prompt and concerted action on malaria at the national, regional and international levels if the public health concerns arising from the disease are to be adequately addressed. © Springer Science & Business Media BV 2009