Is the Insurance Cost-of-Capital Fair?

This paper aims at presenting the insurance cost-of-capital com- putation issue. It highlights two methodologies introduced by Chief Risk Of- ficer Forum (2008) to perform the cost-of-capital rate and which more or less justify the risk premium adopted by supervisory authorities. These strategies are based either on market return of insurance companies or on the modelling of insurance business profit and loss. We estimate a cost-of-capital rate corre- sponding to these basic methodologies and point out benefits and drawbacks of each method. We show that the risk premium adopted by the supervisory authorities is inside the interval confidence given either by market data or by the modelling : thus it would correspond to a fair cost-of-capital rate. In addi- tion to that we discuss the fact that this rate is quite low and allow to adopt a relative conservative strategy.insurance; cost-of-capital; computation issue;

Discrete time models for bid-ask pricing under Dempster-Shafer uncertainty

As is well-known, real financial markets depart from simplifying hypotheses of classical no-arbitrage pricing theory. In particular, they show the presence of frictions in the form of bid-ask spread. For this reason, the aim of the thesis is to provide a model able to manage these situations, relying on a non-linear pricing rule defined as (discounted) Choquet integral with respect to a belief function. Under the partially resolving uncertainty principle, we generalize the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing in the context of belief functions. Furthermore, we show that a generalized arbitrage-free lower pricing rule can be characterized as a (discounted) Choquet expectation with respect to an equivalent inner approximating (one-step) Choquet martingale belief function. Then, we generalize the Choquet pricing rule dinamically: we characterize a reference belief function such that a multiplicative binomial process satisfies a suitable version of time-homogeneity and Markov properties and we derive the induced conditional Choquet expectation operator. In a multi-period market with a risky asset admitting bid-ask spread, we assume that its lower price process is modeled by the proposed time-homogeneous Markov multiplicative binomial process. Here, we generalize the theorem of change of measure, proving the existence of an equivalent one-step Choquet martingale belief function. Then, we prove that the (discounted) lower price process of a European derivative is a one-step Choquet martingale and a k-step Choquet super-martingale, for k ≥ 2

How tax incentives affect decisions to invest in developing countries

The authors contend that in evaluating and designing investment incentives in developing economies, analysts should consider their effect on: the marginal effective tax rate (METR). Even simple tax incentives can perversely affect the METR. Many schemes have relatively generous write-offs to begin with, so generous that a negative marginal effective tax rate is not uncommon. In these circumstances, tax rate reductions (including tax holidays) can discourage investment. Investment tax credits are more likely to be effective. Loss firms. Incentives that do not have generous loss-offsetting or refundability provisions willbe of limited use to firms likely to suffer losses (including small growing firms and firms in risky environments). Cash flows. Incentives that improve firms'cash flows may be more effective than those that do not. Refundability may be important here. Simply adopting cash-flow costing principles with refundability may be more effective than reducing tax rates. Foreign-owned firms. If the value of a tax incentive is fully offset by reduced credits for foreign taxes, the incentive effect will probably be minimal. Capital allocation among assets. Some measures favor short- over long-lived capital, machinery over inventory, some industries over others. Incentives that encourage investment selectively may cause distortions in the way capital is allocated. Other factors to be considered in designing tax incentives: inflation, which is typically high in developing economies. Incentives should offset the effects of inflation; tax evasion, a common problem in developing countries; technology transfer; the fulfillment of social, environmental, and regional non-economic objectives; the effects on firms'organization (do the incentives encourage mergers, takeovers, or bankruptcy?)Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform

Self-fulfilling liquidity dry-ups

Secondary markets for long-term assets might be illiquid due to adverse selection. In a model in which moral hazard is confined to project initiation, I find that: (1) when agents expect a liquidity dry-up on such markets, they optimally choose to self-insure through the hoarding of non-productive but liquid assets; (2) such a response has negative externalities as it reduces ex-post market participation, which worsens adverse selection and dries up market liquidity; (3) liquidity dry-ups are Pareto inefficient equilibria; (4) the Government can rule them out. Additionally, when agents face idiosyncratic, privately known, illiquidity shocks, I show that: (5) it increases market liquidity; (6) illiquid agents are better-off when they can credibly disclose their liquidity position, but transparency has an ambiguous effect on risk-sharing possibilities.Liquidity, Liquidity Dry-ups, Financial Crises, Hoarding, Adverse Selection, Self-insurance

Modelling the liquidity premium on corporate bonds

AbstractThe liquidity premium on corporate bonds has been high on the agenda of Solvency regulators owing to its potential relationship to an additional discount factor on long-dated insurance liabilities. We analyse components of the credit spread as a function of standard bond characteristics during 2003–2014 on a daily basis by regression analyses, after introducing a new liquidity proxy. We derive daily distributions of illiquidity contributions to the credit spread at the individual bond level and find that liquidity premia were close to zero just before the financial crisis. We observe the time-varying nature of liquidity premia as well as a widening in the daily distribution in the years after the credit crunch. We find evidence to support higher liquidity premia, on average, on bonds of lower credit quality. The evolution of model parameters is economically intuitive and brings additional insight into investors’ behaviour. The frequent and bond-level estimation of liquidity premia, combined with few data restrictions makes the approach suitable for ALM modelling, especially when future work is directed towards arriving at forward-looking estimates at both the aggregate and bond-specific level.</jats:p

Non-default Component of Sovereign Emerging Market Yield Spreads and its Determinants: Evidence from Credit Default Swap Market

This article shows that a sizable component of emerging market sovereign yield spreads is due to factors other than default risk, such as liquidity. The author estimates the non-default component of the yield spreads as the basis between the actual credit default swap (CDS) premium and the hypothetical CDS premium implied by emerging market bond yields. On average, the basis is large and positive for speculative-grade bonds and slightly negative for investment-grade bonds. The large positive basis for speculative-grade bonds supports the existence of speculation in the CDS market when the underlying's credit quality is bad. The author studies the effects of bond liquidity, liquidity in the CDS market, equity market performance, and macroeconomic variables on the non-default component of the emerging market yield spreads. The results show that bond liquidity has a significant and positive effect on the CDS–bond basis of investment-grade bonds. The results suggest that the liquid bonds of investment-grade bonds are more expensive relative to the prices implied their CDS premiums. However, the results are somewhat mixed and even contrary for the speculative-grade bond sample.Emerging Market Sovereign Bonds, Credit Risk, Credit Default Swaps, Basis, Liquidity, Emerging Market Equity Markets

The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks

The term premium on nominal long-term bonds in the standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used in macroeconomics is far too small and stable relative to empirical measures obtained from the data - an example of the "bond premium puzzle." However, in models of endowment economies, researchers have been able to generate reasonable term premiums by assuming that investors face long-run economic risks and have recursive Epstein-Zin preferences. We show that introducing these two elements into a canonical DSGE model can also produce a large and variable term premium without compromising the model's ability to fit key macroeconomic variables.

Shadow prices and well-posedness in the problem of optimal investment and consumption with transaction costs

We revisit the optimal investment and consumption model of Davis and Norman (1990) and Shreve and Soner (1994), following a shadow-price approach similar to that of Kallsen and Muhle-Karbe (2010). Making use of the completeness of the model without transaction costs, we reformulate and reduce the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for this singular stochastic control problem to a non-standard free-boundary problem for a first-order ODE with an integral constraint. Having shown that the free boundary problem has a smooth solution, we use it to construct the solution of the original optimal investment/consumption problem in a self-contained manner and without any recourse to the dynamic programming principle. Furthermore, we provide an explicit characterization of model parameters for which the value function is finite.Comment: 31 pages, 20 figure