88,112 research outputs found
Short and long-term wind turbine power output prediction
In the wind energy industry, it is of great importance to develop models that
accurately forecast the power output of a wind turbine, as such predictions are
used for wind farm location assessment or power pricing and bidding,
monitoring, and preventive maintenance. As a first step, and following the
guidelines of the existing literature, we use the supervisory control and data
acquisition (SCADA) data to model the wind turbine power curve (WTPC). We
explore various parametric and non-parametric approaches for the modeling of
the WTPC, such as parametric logistic functions, and non-parametric piecewise
linear, polynomial, or cubic spline interpolation functions. We demonstrate
that all aforementioned classes of models are rich enough (with respect to
their relative complexity) to accurately model the WTPC, as their mean squared
error (MSE) is close to the MSE lower bound calculated from the historical
data. We further enhance the accuracy of our proposed model, by incorporating
additional environmental factors that affect the power output, such as the
ambient temperature, and the wind direction. However, all aforementioned
models, when it comes to forecasting, seem to have an intrinsic limitation, due
to their inability to capture the inherent auto-correlation of the data. To
avoid this conundrum, we show that adding a properly scaled ARMA modeling layer
increases short-term prediction performance, while keeping the long-term
prediction capability of the model
Feature-based time-series analysis
This work presents an introduction to feature-based time-series analysis. The
time series as a data type is first described, along with an overview of the
interdisciplinary time-series analysis literature. I then summarize the range
of feature-based representations for time series that have been developed to
aid interpretable insights into time-series structure. Particular emphasis is
given to emerging research that facilitates wide comparison of feature-based
representations that allow us to understand the properties of a time-series
dataset that make it suited to a particular feature-based representation or
analysis algorithm. The future of time-series analysis is likely to embrace
approaches that exploit machine learning methods to partially automate human
learning to aid understanding of the complex dynamical patterns in the time
series we measure from the world.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figure
Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.
This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation
European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression
In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the Δ-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series
The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting
The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to
carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology
that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand
Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine
learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss
previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in
particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of
geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of
solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of
solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction
to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as
a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should
undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are
the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused
on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of
physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie
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