Extracting relevant predictive variables for COVID-19 severity prognosis: An exhaustive comparison of feature selection techniques

With the COVID-19 pandemic having caused unprecedented numbers of infections and deaths, large research efforts have been undertaken to increase our understanding of the disease and the factors which determine diverse clinical evolutions. Here we focused on a fully data-driven exploration regarding which factors (clinical or otherwise) were most informative for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity prediction via machine learning (ML). In particular, feature selection techniques (FS), designed to reduce the dimensionality of data, allowed us to characterize which of our variables were the most useful for ML prognosis. We conducted a multi-centre clinical study, enrolling n = 1548 patients hospitalized due to SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia: where 792, 238, and 598 patients experienced low, medium and high-severity evolutions, respectively. Up to 106 patient-specific clinical variables were collected at admission, although 14 of them had to be discarded for containing ⩾60% missing values. Alongside 7 socioeconomic attributes and 32 exposures to air pollution (chronic and acute), these became d = 148 features after variable encoding. We addressed this ordinal classification problem both as a ML classification and regression task. Two imputation techniques for missing data were explored, along with a total of 166 unique FS algorithm configurations: 46 filters, 100 wrappers and 20 embeddeds. Of these, 21 setups achieved satisfactory bootstrap stability (⩾0.70) with reasonable computation times: 16 filters, 2 wrappers, and 3 embeddeds. The subsets of features selected by each technique showed modest Jaccard similarities across them. However, they consistently pointed out the importance of certain explanatory variables. Namely: patient’s C-reactive protein (CRP), pneumonia severity index (PSI), respiratory rate (RR) and oxygen levels –saturation Sp O2, quotients Sp O2/RR and arterial Sat O2/Fi O2–, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) –to certain extent, also neutrophil and lymphocyte counts separately–, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and procalcitonin (PCT) levels in blood. A remarkable agreement has been found a posteriori between our strategy and independent clinical research works investigating risk factors for COVID-19 severity. Hence, these findings stress the suitability of this type of fully data-driven approaches for knowledge extraction, as a complementary to clinical perspectives.This research is supported by the Spanish State Research Agency AEI under the project S3M1P4R PID2020-115882RB-I00, as well as by the Basque Government EJ-GV under the grant ‘Artificial Intelligence in BCAM’ 2019/00432, under the strategy ‘Mathematical Modelling Applied to Health’, and under the BERC 2018–2021 and 2022–2025 programmes, and also by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation: BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation CEX2021-001142-S / MICIN / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Data fusion by using machine learning and computational intelligence techniques for medical image analysis and classification

Data fusion is the process of integrating information from multiple sources to produce specific, comprehensive, unified data about an entity. Data fusion is categorized as low level, feature level and decision level. This research is focused on both investigating and developing feature- and decision-level data fusion for automated image analysis and classification. The common procedure for solving these problems can be described as: 1) process image for region of interest\u27 detection, 2) extract features from the region of interest and 3) create learning model based on the feature data. Image processing techniques were performed using edge detection, a histogram threshold and a color drop algorithm to determine the region of interest. The extracted features were low-level features, including textual, color and symmetrical features. For image analysis and classification, feature- and decision-level data fusion techniques are investigated for model learning using and integrating computational intelligence and machine learning techniques. These techniques include artificial neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, particle swarm optimization, decision tree, clustering algorithms, fuzzy logic inference, and voting algorithms. This work presents both the investigation and development of data fusion techniques for the application areas of dermoscopy skin lesion discrimination, content-based image retrieval, and graphic image type classification --Abstract, page v

Feature selection using enhanced particle swarm optimisation for classification models.

In this research, we propose two Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) variants to undertake feature selection tasks. The aim is to overcome two major shortcomings of the original PSO model, i.e., premature convergence and weak exploitation around the near optimal solutions. The first proposed PSO variant incorporates four key operations, including a modified PSO operation with rectified personal and global best signals, spiral search based local exploitation, Gaussian distribution-based swarm leader enhancement, and mirroring and mutation operations for worst solution improvement. The second proposed PSO model enhances the first one through four new strategies, i.e., an adaptive exemplar breeding mechanism incorporating multiple optimal signals, nonlinear function oriented search coefficients, exponential and scattering schemes for swarm leader, and worst solution enhancement, respectively. In comparison with a set of 15 classical and advanced search methods, the proposed models illustrate statistical superiority for discriminative feature selection for a total of 13 data sets

Empirical Analysis of Electron Beam Lithography Optimization Models from a Pragmatic Perspective

Electron Beam (EB) lithography is a process of focussing electron beams on silicon wafers to design different integrated circuits (ICs). It uses an electron gun, a blanking electrode, multiple electron lenses, a deflection electrode, and control circuits for each of these components. But the lithography process causes critical dimension overshoots, which reduces quality of the underlying ICs. This is caused due to increase in beam currents, frequent electron flashes, and reducing re-exposure of chip areas. Thus, to overcome these issues, researchers have proposed a wide variety of optimization models, each of which vary in terms of their qualitative & quantitative performance. These models also vary in terms of their internal operating characteristics, which causes ambiguity in identification of optimum models for application-specific use cases. To reduce this ambiguity, a discussion about application-specific nuances, functional advantages, deployment-specific limitations, and contextual future research scopes is discussed in this text. Based on this discussion, it was observed that bioinspired models outperform linear modelling techniques, which makes them highly useful for real-time deployments. These models aim at stochastically evaluation of optimum electron beam configurations, which improves wafer’s quality & speed of imprinting when compared with other models. To further facilitate selection of these models, this text compares them in terms of their accuracy, throughput, critical dimensions, deployment cost & computational complexity metrics. Based on this discussion, researchers will be able to identify optimum models for their performance-specific use cases. This text also proposes evaluation of a novel EB Lithography Optimization Metric (EBLOM), which combines multiple performance parameters for estimation of true model performance under real-time scenarios. Based on this metric, researchers will be able to identify models that can perform optimally with higher performance under performance-specific constraints

Extracting relevant predictive variables for COVID-19 severity prognosis: An exhaustive comparison of feature selection techniques

With the COVID-19 pandemic having caused unprecedented numbers of infections and deaths, large research efforts have been undertaken to increase our understanding of the disease and the factors which determine diverse clinical evolutions. Here we focused on a fully data-driven exploration regarding which factors (clinical or otherwise) were most informative for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity prediction via machine learning (ML). In particular, feature selection techniques (FS), designed to reduce the dimensionality of data, allowed us to characterize which of our variables were the most useful for ML prognosis. We conducted a multi-centre clinical study, enrolling n=1548 patients hospitalized due to SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia: where 792, 238, and 598 patients experienced low, medium and high-severity evolutions, respectively. Up to 106 patient-specific clinical variables were collected at admission, although 14 of them had to be discarded for containing ⩾60% missing values. Alongside 7 socioeconomic attributes and 32 exposures to air pollution (chronic and acute), these became d=148 features after variable encoding. We addressed this ordinal classification problem both as a ML classification and regression task. Two imputation techniques for missing data were explored, along with a total of 166 unique FS algorithm configurations: 46 filters, 100 wrappers and 20 embeddeds. Of these, 21 setups achieved satisfactory bootstrap stability (⩾0.70) with reasonable computation times: 16 filters, 2 wrappers, and 3 embeddeds. The subsets of features selected by each technique showed modest Jaccard similarities across them. However, they consistently pointed out the importance of certain explanatory variables. Namely: patient’s C-reactive protein (CRP), pneumonia severity index (PSI), respiratory rate (RR) and oxygen levels –saturation SpO2, quotients SpO2/RR and arterial SatO2/FiO2 –, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) –to certain extent, also neutrophil and lymphocyte counts separately–, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and procalcitonin (PCT) levels in blood. A remarkable agreement has been found a posteriori between our strategy and independent clinical research works investigating risk factors for COVID-19 severity. Hence, these findings stress the suitability of this type of fully data-driven approaches for knowledge extraction, as a complementary to clinical perspectives

Temporospatial Context-Aware Vehicular Crash Risk Prediction

With the demand for more vehicles increasing, road safety is becoming a growing concern. Traffic collisions take many lives and cost billions of dollars in losses. This explains the growing interest of governments, academic institutions and companies in road safety. The vastness and availability of road accident data has provided new opportunities for gaining a better understanding of accident risk factors and for developing more effective accident prediction and prevention regimes. Much of the empirical research on road safety and accident analysis utilizes statistical models which capture limited aspects of crashes. On the other hand, data mining has recently gained interest as a reliable approach for investigating road-accident data and for providing predictive insights. While some risk factors contribute more frequently in the occurrence of a road accident, the importance of driver behavior, temporospatial factors, and real-time traffic dynamics have been underestimated. This study proposes a framework for predicting crash risk based on historical accident data. The proposed framework incorporates machine learning and data analytics techniques to identify driving patterns and other risk factors associated with potential vehicle crashes. These techniques include clustering, association rule mining, information fusion, and Bayesian networks. Swarm intelligence based association rule mining is employed to uncover the underlying relationships and dependencies in collision databases. Data segmentation methods are employed to eliminate the effect of dependent variables. Extracted rules can be used along with real-time mobility to predict crashes and their severity in real-time. The national collision database of Canada (NCDB) is used in this research to generate association rules with crash risk oriented subsequents, and to compare the performance of the swarm intelligence based approach with that of other association rule miners. Many industry-demanding datasets, including road-accident datasets, are deficient in descriptive factors. This is a significant barrier for uncovering meaningful risk factor relationships. To resolve this issue, this study proposes a knwoledgebase approximation framework to enhance the crash risk analysis by integrating pieces of evidence discovered from disparate datasets capturing different aspects of mobility. Dempster-Shafer theory is utilized as a key element of this knowledgebase approximation. This method can integrate association rules with acceptable accuracy under certain circumstances that are discussed in this thesis. The proposed framework is tested on the lymphography dataset and the road-accident database of the Great Britain. The derived insights are then used as the basis for constructing a Bayesian network that can estimate crash likelihood and risk levels so as to warn drivers and prevent accidents in real-time. This Bayesian network approach offers a way to implement a naturalistic driving analysis process for predicting traffic collision risk based on the findings from the data-driven model. A traffic incident detection and localization method is also proposed as a component of the risk analysis model. Detecting and localizing traffic incidents enables timely response to accidents and facilitates effective and efficient traffic flow management. The results obtained from the experimental work conducted on this component is indicative of the capability of our Dempster-Shafer data-fusion-based incident detection method in overcoming the challenges arising from erroneous and noisy sensor readings

Performance analysis of multimodal biometric fusion

Biometrics is constantly evolving technology which has been widely used in many official and commercial identification applications. In fact in recent years biometric-based authentication techniques received more attention due to increased concerns in security. Most biometric systems that are currently in use typically employ a single biometric trait. Such systems are called unibiometric systems. Despite considerable advances in recent years, there are still challenges in authentication based on a single biometric trait, such as noisy data, restricted degree of freedom, intra-class variability, non-universality, spoof attack and unacceptable error rates. Some of the challenges can be handled by designing a multimodal biometric system. Multimodal biometric systems are those which utilize or are capable of utilizing, more than one physiological or behavioural characteristic for enrolment, verification, or identification. In this thesis, we propose a novel fusion approach at a hybrid level between iris and online signature traits. Online signature and iris authentication techniques have been employed in a range of biometric applications. Besides improving the accuracy, the fusion of both of the biometrics has several advantages such as increasing population coverage, deterring spoofing activities and reducing enrolment failure. In this doctoral dissertation, we make a first attempt to combine online signature and iris biometrics. We principally explore the fusion of iris and online signature biometrics and their potential application as biometric identifiers. To address this issue, investigations is carried out into the relative performance of several statistical data fusion techniques for integrating the information in both unimodal and multimodal biometrics. We compare the results of the multimodal approach with the results of the individual online signature and iris authentication approaches. This dissertation describes research into the feature and decision fusion levels in multimodal biometrics.State of Kuwait – The Public Authority of Applied Education and Trainin

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Particle Swarm Optimisation for Feature Selection in Classification

Classification problems often have a large number of features, but not all of them are useful for classification. Irrelevant and redundant features may even reduce the classification accuracy. Feature selection is a process of selecting a subset of relevant features, which can decrease the dimensionality, shorten the running time, and/or improve the classification accuracy. There are two types of feature selection approaches, i.e. wrapper and filter approaches. Their main difference is that wrappers use a classification algorithm to evaluate the goodness of the features during the feature selection process while filters are independent of any classification algorithm. Feature selection is a difficult task because of feature interactions and the large search space. Existing feature selection methods suffer from different problems, such as stagnation in local optima and high computational cost. Evolutionary computation (EC) techniques are well-known global search algorithms. Particle swarm optimisation (PSO) is an EC technique that is computationally less expensive and can converge faster than other methods. PSO has been successfully applied to many areas, but its potential for feature selection has not been fully investigated. The overall goal of this thesis is to investigate and improve the capability of PSO for feature selection to select a smaller number of features and achieve similar or better classification performance than using all features. This thesis investigates the use of PSO for both wrapper and filter, and for both single objective and multi-objective feature selection, and also investigates the differences between wrappers and filters. This thesis proposes a new PSO based wrapper, single objective feature selection approach by developing new initialisation and updating mechanisms. The results show that by considering the number of features in the initialisation and updating procedures, the new algorithm can improve the classification performance, reduce the number of features and decrease computational time. This thesis develops the first PSO based wrapper multi-objective feature selection approach, which aims to maximise the classification accuracy and simultaneously minimise the number of features. The results show that the proposed multi-objective algorithm can obtain more and better feature subsets than single objective algorithms, and outperform other well-known EC based multi-objective feature selection algorithms. This thesis develops a filter, single objective feature selection approach based on PSO and information theory. Two measures are proposed to evaluate the relevance of the selected features based on each pair of features and a group of features, respectively. The results show that PSO and information based algorithms can successfully address feature selection tasks. The group based method achieves higher classification accuracies, but the pair based method is faster and selects smaller feature subsets. This thesis proposes the first PSO based multi-objective filter feature selection approach using information based measures. This work is also the first work using other two well-known multi-objective EC algorithms in filter feature selection, which are also used to compare the performance of the PSO based approach. The results show that the PSO based multiobjective filter approach can successfully address feature selection problems, outperform single objective filter algorithms and achieve better classification performance than other multi-objective algorithms. This thesis investigates the difference between wrapper and filter approaches in terms of the classification performance and computational time, and also examines the generality of wrappers. The results show that wrappers generally achieve better or similar classification performance than filters, but do not always need longer computational time than filters. The results also show that wrappers built with simple classification algorithms can be general to other classification algorithms