915 research outputs found
Compensating for population sampling in simulations of epidemic spread on temporal contact networks
Data describing human interactions often suffer from incomplete sampling of
the underlying population. As a consequence, the study of contagion processes
using data-driven models can lead to a severe underestimation of the epidemic
risk. Here we present a systematic method to alleviate this issue and obtain a
better estimation of the risk in the context of epidemic models informed by
high-resolution time-resolved contact data. We consider several such data sets
collected in various contexts and perform controlled resampling experiments. We
show how the statistical information contained in the resampled data can be
used to build a series of surrogate versions of the unknown contacts. We
simulate epidemic processes on the resulting reconstructed data sets and show
that it is possible to obtain good estimates of the outcome of simulations
performed using the complete data set. We discuss limitations and potential
improvements of our method
Epidemic risk from friendship network data: an equivalence with a non-uniform sampling of contact networks
Contacts between individuals play an important role in determining how
infectious diseases spread. Various methods to gather data on such contacts
co-exist, from surveys to wearable sensors. Comparisons of data obtained by
different methods in the same context are however scarce, in particular with
respect to their use in data-driven models of spreading processes. Here, we use
a combined data set describing contacts registered by sensors and friendship
relations in the same population to address this issue in a case study. We
investigate if the use of the friendship network is equivalent to a sampling
procedure performed on the sensor contact network with respect to the outcome
of simulations of spreading processes: such an equivalence might indeed give
hints on ways to compensate for the incompleteness of contact data deduced from
surveys. We show that this is indeed the case for these data, for a
specifically designed sampling procedure, in which respondents report their
neighbors with a probability depending on their contact time. We study the
impact of this specific sampling procedure on several data sets, discuss
limitations of our approach and its possible applications in the use of data
sets of various origins in data-driven simulations of epidemic processes
Impact of spatially constrained sampling of temporal contact networks on the evaluation of the epidemic risk
The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly
enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of
directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete
coverage of the contacts occurring in a population is however generally
unattainable, due for instance to limited participation rates or experimental
constraints in spatial coverage. Here, we study the impact of spatially
constrained sampling on our ability to estimate the epidemic risk in a
population using such detailed data-driven models. The epidemic risk is
quantified by the epidemic threshold of the
susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible model for the propagation of
communicable diseases, i.e. the critical value of disease transmissibility
above which the disease turns endemic. We verify for both synthetic and
empirical data of human interactions that the use of incomplete data sets due
to spatial sampling leads to the underestimation of the epidemic risk. The bias
is however smaller than the one obtained by uniformly sampling the same
fraction of contacts: it depends nonlinearly on the fraction of contacts that
are recorded and becomes negligible if this fraction is large enough. Moreover,
it depends on the interplay between the timescales of population and spreading
dynamics.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figure
Estimating the epidemic risk using non-uniformly sampled contact data
Many datasets describing contacts in a population suffer from incompleteness
due to population sampling and underreporting of contacts. Data-driven
simulations of spreading processes using such incomplete data lead to an
underestimation of the epidemic risk, and it is therefore important to devise
methods to correct this bias. We focus here on a non-uniform sampling of the
contacts between individuals, aimed at mimicking the results of diaries or
surveys, and consider as case studies two datasets collected in different
contexts. We show that using surrogate data built using a method developed in
the case of uniform population sampling yields an improvement with respect to
the use of the sampled data but is strongly limited by the underestimation of
the link density in the sampled network. We put forward a second method to
build surrogate data that assumes knowledge of the density of links within one
of the groups forming the population. We show that it gives very good results
when the population is strongly structured, and discuss its limitations in the
case of a population with a weaker group structure. These limitations highlight
the interest of measurements using wearable sensors able to yield accurate
information on the structure and durations of contacts
Can co-location be used as a proxy for face-to-face contacts?
Technological advances have led to a strong increase in the number of data
collection efforts aimed at measuring co-presence of individuals at different
spatial resolutions. It is however unclear how much co-presence data can inform
us on actual face-to-face contacts, of particular interest to study the
structure of a population in social groups or for use in data-driven models of
information or epidemic spreading processes. Here, we address this issue by
leveraging data sets containing high resolution face-to-face contacts as well
as a coarser spatial localisation of individuals, both temporally resolved, in
various contexts. The co-presence and the face-to-face contact temporal
networks share a number of structural and statistical features, but the former
is (by definition) much denser than the latter. We thus consider several
down-sampling methods that generate surrogate contact networks from the
co-presence signal and compare them with the real face-to-face data. We show
that these surrogate networks reproduce some features of the real data but are
only partially able to identify the most central nodes of the face-to-face
network. We then address the issue of using such down-sampled co-presence data
in data-driven simulations of epidemic processes, and in identifying efficient
containment strategies. We show that the performance of the various sampling
methods strongly varies depending on context. We discuss the consequences of
our results with respect to data collection strategies and methodologies
How to estimate epidemic risk from incomplete contact diaries data?
Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts
between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the
epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with
respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we
investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show
that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly
available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts
Contact patterns in a high school: a comparison between data collected using wearable sensors, contact diaries and friendship surveys
Given their importance in shaping social networks and determining how
information or diseases propagate in a population, human interactions are the
subject of many data collection efforts. To this aim, different methods are
commonly used, from diaries and surveys to wearable sensors. These methods show
advantages and limitations but are rarely compared in a given setting. As
surveys targeting friendship relations might suffer less from memory biases
than contact diaries, it is also interesting to explore how daily contact
patterns compare with friendship relations and with online social links. Here
we make progresses in these directions by leveraging data from a French high
school: face-to-face contacts measured by two concurrent methods, sensors and
diaries; self-reported friendship surveys; Facebook links. We compare the data
sets and find that most short contacts are not reported in diaries while long
contacts have larger reporting probability, with a general tendency to
overestimate durations. Measured contacts corresponding to reported friendship
can have durations of any length but all long contacts correspond to reported
friendships. Online links not associated to reported friendships correspond to
short face-to-face contacts, highlighting the different nature of reported
friendships and online links. Diaries and surveys suffer from a low sampling
rate, showing the higher acceptability of sensor-based platform. Despite the
biases, we found that the overall structure of the contact network, i.e., the
mixing patterns between classes, is correctly captured by both self-reported
contacts and friendships networks. Overall, diaries and surveys tend to yield a
correct picture of the structural organization of the contact network, albeit
with much less links, and give access to a sort of backbone of the contact
network corresponding to the strongest links in terms of cumulative durations
PocketCare: Tracking the Flu with Mobile Phones using Partial Observations of Proximity and Symptoms
Mobile phones provide a powerful sensing platform that researchers may adopt
to understand proximity interactions among people and the diffusion, through
these interactions, of diseases, behaviors, and opinions. However, it remains a
challenge to track the proximity-based interactions of a whole community and
then model the social diffusion of diseases and behaviors starting from the
observations of a small fraction of the volunteer population. In this paper, we
propose a novel approach that tries to connect together these sparse
observations using a model of how individuals interact with each other and how
social interactions happen in terms of a sequence of proximity interactions. We
apply our approach to track the spreading of flu in the spatial-proximity
network of a 3000-people university campus by mobilizing 300 volunteers from
this population to monitor nearby mobile phones through Bluetooth scanning and
to daily report flu symptoms about and around them. Our aim is to predict the
likelihood for an individual to get flu based on how often her/his daily
routine intersects with those of the volunteers. Thus, we use the daily
routines of the volunteers to build a model of the volunteers as well as of the
non-volunteers. Our results show that we can predict flu infection two weeks
ahead of time with an average precision from 0.24 to 0.35 depending on the
amount of information. This precision is six to nine times higher than with a
random guess model. At the population level, we can predict infectious
population in a two-week window with an r-squared value of 0.95 (a random-guess
model obtains an r-squared value of 0.2). These results point to an innovative
approach for tracking individuals who have interacted with people showing
symptoms, allowing us to warn those in danger of infection and to inform health
researchers about the progression of contact-induced diseases
Building surrogate temporal network data from observed backbones
In many data sets, crucial elements co-exist with non-essential ones and
noise. For data represented as networks in particular, several methods have
been proposed to extract a "network backbone", i.e., the set of most important
links. However, the question of how the resulting compressed views of the data
can effectively be used has not been tackled. Here we address this issue by
putting forward and exploring several systematic procedures to build surrogate
data from various kinds of temporal network backbones. In particular, we
explore how much information about the original data need to be retained
alongside the backbone so that the surrogate data can be used in data-driven
numerical simulations of spreading processes. We illustrate our results using
empirical temporal networks with a broad variety of structures and properties
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