A model of discrete zero-sum two-person matrix games with grey numbers to solve dispute resolution problems in construction

Conflict between parties is a common issue in construction projects. In the present article, the conflicts be-tween contractor and employer in delayed Design-Bid-Build projects have been studied. Defining a case study, a dispute resolution method has been proposed. This case has been considered as a MCDM problem. This problem has been as-sumed as a discrete zero-sum two-person matrix game with grey numbers. Among the four alternatives available for con-tractor and employer in the proposed case study, termination is the last alternative that decision makers choose. Based on different risk values, authors determined the optimal solution for both parties. This article integrates some linguistic criteria together with time and cost, providing the better conditions to avoid lengthy bargaining

A game theory approach for optimum strategy of the owner and contractor in delayed projects

Delay is one of the problems occurring between owners and contractors. Deviation from base plans can be found using project control methods, continuous assessment of the schedule, determining progress percentages and earned value parameters. In such circumstances, conflicts might arise between contractor and owner as restoring project’s original schedule needs added expenditures by the contractor. Moreover, continuation of the previous procedure and late completion of the project will cause the owner damage. In this research, a mathematical model using game theory has been presented. The model investigates the behaviour and strategies of the parties involved in a delayed project through bargaining. It helps owners and contractors gain deeper understanding of the given delay problem, get a fairly accurate analysis of their situation and consider possible strategies in facing with such circumstances without spending a long and inconclusive time. The points which both parties can agree rationally proposed with a numerical example. Results of the model indicate that parameters involved in the problem are effective in changing the range width of negotiation. In special cases, such as disproportionate delay penalty, these parameters even make it neutral in negotiation. Step by step analysis of the model showed which features can threaten negotiation

A model for predicting court decisions on child custody

Awarding joint or sole custody is of crucial importance for the lives of both the child and the parents. This paper first models the factors explaining a court''s decision to grant child custody and later tests the predictive capacity of the proposed model. We conducted an empirical study using data from 1, 884 court rulings, identifying and labeling factual elements, legal principles, and other relevant information. We developed a neural network model that includes eight factual findings, such as the relationship between the parents and their economic resources, the child''s opinion, and the psychological report on the type of custody. We performed a temporal validation using cases later in time than those in the training sample for prediction. Our system predicted the court''s decisions with an accuracy exceeding 85%. We obtained easy-to-apply decision rules with the decision tree technique. The paper contributes by identifying the factors that best predict joint custody, which is useful for parents, lawyers, and prosecutors. Parents would do well to know these findings before venturing into a courtroom

Categorización de textos científicos mediante aprendizaje automático

El presente documento se corresponde con el Trabajo de Fin de Grado elaborado para nalizar el Doble Grado de Ingeniería Informática y Administración de Empresas, siendo este el referido al primer grado. En él, se ha recogido el proceso llevado a cabo para el desarrollo de un software que genere autom aticamente las palabras clave necesarias para etiquetar un artículo científico a partir de su resumen. Para ello, ha sido necesario, en primer lugar, conocer el Estado de la Cuestón, es decir, investigar qué era exactamente un problema de clasificación multietiqueta y de qué técnicas se disponían para resolverlo. Además, también fue necesario averiguar cómo se podía transformar un texto para poder generar de él una serie de atributos que explicaran su contenido. Una vez se tenían los conocimientos suficientes, se pudo pasar al análisis, diseño e implementacón del sistema, fases que han sido debidamente documentadas, y puestas a prueba en la evaluación. Esto se ha realizado mediante la generación de cuatro módulos: extracción de la información, elaboración de los conjuntos de entrenamiento, la construcción de los modelos y la evaluación. En cuanto a las pruebas de comportamiento realizadas, se detectó que la labor de aprendizaje se dificultaba enormemente a medida que las etiquetas estaban muy relacionadas, pues sus atributos no eran lo su cientemente diferentes como para poder diferenciarlos con claridad. Este trabajo se cierra con un capítulo de conclusiones, donde se ha realizado un repaso de los aspectos más importantes detectados durante el desarrollo, así como las limitaciones del sistema y las líneas futuras de investigaciónDoble Grado en Ingeniería Informática y Administración de Empresa

Contributos para os processos de governança e renegociação das parcerias público-privadas no Brasil

Proposal: The rapid economic development registered in emerging economies, such as Brazil, have in recent years placed increased pressure on infrastructure development with significant impacts in terms of financing needs. The Public- Private Partnership (PPP) is an instrument, used worldwide, for public procurement of major projects. Its use occurs through concession projects or public service to a private partner, for a specified period of time, including significant funding from the private. PPPs are seen as accelerators of development, since they are characterized as a quick way to approve and implement infrastructure projects. However, in Latin America and more specifically in Brazil, recent experiences have resulted in a large number of contractual renegotiations that transform the expected social and economic benefits of the public and private sectors into financial losses and delays in delivery and operation of these infrastructures. The objective of this study is to review the literature on the subject of PPPs, with the focus on the areas of governance and renegotiations, and thus to analyze and compare with the experiences of Brazilian PPPs, pointing weaknesses and suggesting improvements in these processes that would result in quality gains in its application. The method used for the development of this research are: the descriptive, conducted through exploratory literature review seeking a better understanding of the subject under study, followed by case studies, analysis of results and proposing improvements in these processes. Results: The research presents contributions in the processes of governance and renegotiation of Brazilian PPPs resulting in gains of quality, applicability and feasibility in applying this type of contract. Conclusion: The research obtained a set of contributions in the processes of governance and renegotiation of contracts, to assist the public and private sectors in the optimization of economic and financial results in the Brazilian PPPs.Proposta: O acelerado desenvolvimento económico registado nas economias emergentes, como o Brasil, vem colocar nos últimos anos uma pressão acrescida no desenvolvimento de infraestruturas com impactos relevantes ao nível das necessidades de financiamento. A Parceria Público-Privada (PPP) é um instrumento, utilizado mundialmente, para contratação pública de projetos de grande porte. Sua utilização se dá pela concessão de obra ou serviço público a um parceiro privado, por um determinado período de tempo, incluindo significativo financiamento do privado. As PPPs são vistas como aceleradoras do desenvolvimento, pois se caracterizam como uma maneira rápida de aprovar e executar projetos de infraestrutura. No entanto, na América Latina e mais especificamente no Brasil, as experiências recentes resultaram num grande número de renegociações contratuais que transformam os benefícios sociais e econômicos, esperados por parte dos setores público e privado, em prejuízos de ordem financeira e atrasos na entrega e operação destas infraestruturas. O objetivo deste trabalho é revisar a literatura sobre o tema das PPPs, com o foco nas áreas de governança e renegociações, e assim analisar e comparar com as experiências das PPPs brasileiras, apontando debilidades e sugerindo melhoramentos nestes processos que resultem em ganhos de qualidade em sua aplicação. O método utilizado para o desenvolvimento desta pesquisa será: o descritivo, conduzido através de revisão bibliográfica de caráter exploratório buscando um maior conhecimento sobre o assunto em estudo, seguido de estudos de caso, análise dos resultados e a proposição de melhoramentos nestes processos. Resultados: A investigação apresenta contributos nos processos de governança e renegociação das PPPs Brasileiras que resultem em ganhos de qualidade, aplicabilidade e viabilidade na aplicação desta modalidade de contrato. Conclusão: A investigação obteve um conjunto de contributos nos processos de governança e renegociação de contratos, que auxiliam os setores público e privado na otimização dos resultados económicos e financeiros nas PPPs Brasileiras.Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Civi

Analysis of construction and stakeholder risks for Public Private Partnership projects in developing countries : a comparative analysis using Artificial Neural Networks to determine the effect of poor stakeholder management and construction risks on the project’s schedule (PPP vs. traditional projects)

There has been a continuously increasing demand for public services and infrastructure all over the world especially in developing countries in order to respond to the rapidly growing population and the targeted economic growth in these countries. Accordingly resorting to the PPP scheme is a way for the governmental authorities to achieve the objectives of better services to the end user in energy, educational, water and wastewater, and transportation projects with the help and expertise of the private sector. While PPP was proven to be successful in several instances, there are also several failure stories where the PPP scheme was used. In order to avoid such problems and due to the complex nature of PPP projects and their extended life span, an adequate risk management technique should be performed for PPP projects to ensure their success. One of the crucial steps linked to risk management is stakeholder management. This research primarily aims to develop a mathematical model that analyzes the expected total effect of risks associated with poor stakeholder management during the construction phase on PPP projects’ schedule based on historical details of previous PPP projects in a comparative study with traditional construction projects using Artificial Neural Networks. In order to develop “the risks checklist” that will be inserted in the model, an extensive literature review of 30 sources was thoroughly studied in order to develop the list of the risks affecting PPP projects. To properly develop a comprehensive list of risks, the journal papers, research and publications that were studied covered the time span between 1998 until 2018. Furthermore, the literature review performed for the sake of developing the risk factors was covering different countries such as: the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Scotland, China, Australia, India, Indonesia, Singapore, Iran, Malaysia, Thailand, Portugal and South Africa. These countries were chosen to encompass different levels of PPP experience. Accordingly, a comprehensive list of 118 risks was developed. In addition to the ranking and classification of risks into various risks categories, each one of the identified risks was mapped to its corresponding country. The purpose of this step is to determine the critical risks that the literature identified for each country in order to establish a cross-country comparison. From this mapping, it is found that most of the risks affecting PPP projects around the world are political, legal, stakeholder and construction risks. The inadequate PPP experience, lack of support from government, force majeure and permits delays are affecting PPP projects in all the countries included in this research. It is also noticed that risks affecting developed countries such as Hong Kong, China and UK are of similar nature to the risks affecting developing countries. The model was developed using Neural Designer ® Software. This software was used in particular as it is a powerful user-friendly interface able to make complex operations and build predictive models in an intuitive way with a graphical user interface.To build the model, the input variables were the 44 risk factors related to consttruction and stakehoders while the schedule Growth (or total project delay) was used as the target variable.The dataset contains 12 instances (or 12 projects) and was divided into three sets:a.Training comprising 66.7% of the projects (8 traditional projects)b.Selection (testing) comprising 16.7% of the projects (2 traditional projects)c.Validation comprising 16.7 of the projects (2 PPP projects)Once all the dataset information has been set, some analytics were performed in order to check the quality of the data. Model performance was detected using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Normalized Squared Error (NSE) over the training, testing and validation datasets.Ten trials of the ANN model were performed using different training and testing strategies in order to be able choose the optimum model that has the best learning capabilities and delivering the least possible errors during the training and testing.Based on the different trials output, it is concluded that Model 4 delivers the smallest range of error (MSE and NSE) for training and testing. The architecture of this particular model is: 18 input nodes, three hidden neurons on two layers and one output. It was trained using a logistic function. It is noticed that having the hidden perceptron on two layers improved the model’s performance significantly and decreased errors for both training and testing. After performing training and testing of all models, and in all trials, it was noticed that the error decreased considerably by decreasing the number of input nodes.In order to validate the model’s performance, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the cause and effect relationship between inputs and outputs of the ANN model. The most significant risk factor is “the lack of coordination” as it is the most important contributor to the model´s ability to predict total project´s delay. On the other hand, the least significant risk factor in this case is the “constructability” and the “protection of geological and historical objects”. Comparing the results of this sensitivity analysis to the risk mapping to different countries, it is noticed that the lack of coordination risk is not present in other countries such as Australia, Hong Kong and the UK. Based on the model´s outcomes, correlations between all input and target variables ranked in descending order based on the best model out of the ten models were calculated. The maximum correlation (0.803336) is yield between the input variable “Delay in resolving contractual dispute” and the target variable “Schedule growth”. 37 risk factors out of the 44 have a high correlation factor (more than 0.1) with the total project´s delay. Furthermore, a comparison was established between this new ranking and the ranking previously obtained from the literature review based on content analysis and on the ranking obtained from the sensitivity analysis. The following observations were drawn:•Based on the literature review, the material availability risk occupies the first position in terms of the most critical risks. This ranking is similar to a great extent to its ranking based on the correlation calculations according to which this risk occupies the third position. •The “Delay in resolving contractual dispute” occupies the highest rank in terms of correlation with the total project delay based on the ANN model’s outputs. This ranking is also similar to the results of the sensitivity analysis where it occupies the second position in terms of the risks having the highest contribution to the total project’s delay. On the other hand, the same risk is ranked 31st based on the results of the analysis of the literature review. Since the ANN model was based on real case projects, it makes more sense that this particular risk can be of detrimental effect to the project’s completion time. The same goes for the risk “Inadequate negotiation period prior to initiation”. This risk, based on the model’s deliverables, is ranking 11th and 17th in sensitivity analysis and correlation to the total project’s delay while, based on the literature review, is ranking 42nd out of 44. •The “Public opposition” risk is one of the most severe risks facing PPP projects based on the literature review as it occupies the second position based on the various sources taken into account. Nevertheless, based on the sensitivity analysis and on the correlation analysis, this risk occupies the 35th and 44th positions respectively. This difference in ranking can be caused by the relatively small sample size of PPP projects studied in this research. The dataset studied was not encompassing such risk as it was not faced in the projects that were analyzed. However, this does not mean that this risk is not significant especially for PPP projects. •For other risks such as “Constructability”, “staff crisis” and “subjective evaluation”, the literature review and the model deliverables produced very close results. •Based on the literature review, the material availability risk occupies the first position in terms of the most critical risks. This ranking is similar to a great extent to its ranking based on the correlation calculations according to which this risk occupies the third position. On the other hand, the ranking of this same risk is 31 based on the sensitivity analysis in terms of its effect and contribution to the total project delay. The “Delay in resolving contractual dispute” occupies the highest rank in terms of correlation with the total project delay based on the ANN model’s outputs. This ranking is also similar to the results of the sensitivity analysis where it occupies the second position in terms of the risks having the highest contribution to the total project’s delay. The “Public opposition” risk is one of the most severe risks facing PPP projects based on the literature review as it occupies the second position based on the various sources taken into account. Nevertheless, based on the sensitivity analysis and on the correlation analysis, this risk occupies the 35th and 44th positions respectively. A future destination for this study is to provide, in addition to the ANN model determining the contribution of the risks to the overall project delay, a tool assisting the public sector to choose and determine whether the PPP scheme in a particular project is the optimum scheme to use or not

Understanding Energy Contexts: An Assessment of Emerging Methods for the Thermo-Behavioural Characterization of Residential Households

Unlocking the full potential of residential-sector energy efficiency gains will require the efforts of external agents (whether in the public, private, or not-for profit sectors) engaging with individual homeowners in order to encourage the adoption of energy-saving measures. To achieve this result efficiently and effectively, such agents require an easily-obtained understanding of the “energy context" governing a household's energy use and efficiency investment decisions: factors from the number, characteristics, attitudes, and values of occupants to the physical state of a dwelling to broader geographic, financial and legal considerations. Continuously-emerging sources of contextual and household-specific data have the potential, if integrated appropriately, to provide this understanding - but to what extent can this be achieved with current methodological tools, and can the state-of-the-art be improved? This research has attempted to address this question, with an emphasis on the physical characteristics of homes and the behavioural patterns of their occupants. A review of existing characterization techniques in the literature yielded a set of methodological best practises and theoretical shortfalls, which were integrated with physical first principles and empirically-observed statistical trends to develop new modelling approaches to make use of hourly whole-house electricity consumption data, aiming to improve upon the state-of-the-art. A subset of these models (chosen for their speed and stability of parameter estimation) were compared to existing techniques: while one of the novel approaches yielded improved behavioural disaggregation performance and a simpler formulation compared to existing alternatives, there would seem to remain considerable opportunity for continued improvement, with results suggesting several potentially-promising areas for continued research

Development of an integrated framework for constructive dispute resolution in infrastructure public-private partnership projects

Despite wide international acceptance of infrastructure public-private partnerships (PPPs), they are fertile ground for disputes because of their unique features such as numerous stakeholders with differing organisational values and lifecycle arrangement for project delivery, among others. At the same time, dispute resolution (DR) in infrastructure PPPs is inadequately addressed and inefficient DR systems are prevalent. This study therefore developed a framework for constructive DR in infrastructure PPPs by embedding behaviour of PPP project parties through the lens of the Dual Concern Theory (DCT). The research employed a mixed methods approach and found that some of the sources of disputes in infrastructure PPPs include unbalanced allocation and under-pricing of risks, political interference, breakdown of commercial relationships, among others. In addition, some of the issues affecting DR in infrastructure PPPs were highlighted as inadequate information sharing, poor communication and collaboration, inadequate monitoring and evaluation systems, among others. Some critical success factors for DR in infrastructure PPPs were determined such as neutrality of the mediator, flexibility of PPP project parties, confidence in the DR system, fairness by all parties, and speed of DR. As a step towards improving DR in infrastructure PPPs, collaborative means of DR were suggested. These can be achieved through exploring solutions that are acceptable to all parties, transparency and open communication, among others. A framework for constructive DR in infrastructure PPPs was also developed. Among other theoretical contributions, this research clarified the occurrence of disputes and their resolution in infrastructure PPPs through the lens of DCT. From a practical perspective, an empirical framework that can serve as a customisable reference point when issues arise on infrastructure PPP projects, was developed.Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, Adelaide Business School , 202

Study on open science: The general state of the play in Open Science principles and practices at European life sciences institutes

Nowadays, open science is a hot topic on all levels and also is one of the priorities of the European Research Area. Components that are commonly associated with open science are open access, open data, open methodology, open source, open peer review, open science policies and citizen science. Open science may a great potential to connect and influence the practices of researchers, funding institutions and the public. In this paper, we evaluate the level of openness based on public surveys at four European life sciences institute